NZD\/USD, ABD Dolar\u0131\u2019n\u0131n daha zay\u0131f bir ABD istihdam raporu sonras\u0131 gerilemesi ve risk i\u015ftah\u0131ndaki toparlanman\u0131n Kiwi\u2019yi desteklemesiyle Cuma g\u00fcn\u00fc 0,5710 civar\u0131nda i\u015flem g\u00f6r\u00fcyordu ve %0,21 y\u00fckselmi\u015fti. ABD piyasalar\u0131n\u0131n Ba\u011f\u0131ms\u0131zl\u0131k G\u00fcn\u00fc nedeniyle kapal\u0131 olmas\u0131, likiditenin daha s\u0131\u011f kalabilece\u011fine ve bunun da hareketin devam\u0131n\u0131 s\u0131n\u0131rlayabilece\u011fine i\u015faret ediyordu. Destek \u00c7in verilerinden de geldi: RatingDog Services PMI, May\u0131s\u2019taki 54,4 seviyesinden Haziran\u2019da 54,1\u2019e geriledi; ancak endeks hizmetlerde istikrarl\u0131 geni\u015flemeye i\u015faret etmeyi s\u00fcrd\u00fcrd\u00fc. Bu zemin, \u00c7in\u2019e olan ticari maruziyeti nedeniyle Yeni Zelanda a\u00e7\u0131s\u0131ndan \u00f6nem ta\u015f\u0131yor.<\/p>\n\n
Faiz taraf\u0131nda ASB Bank, Yeni Zelanda Merkez Bankas\u0131\u2019ndan (RBNZ) Temmuz ay\u0131nda art\u0131k bir faiz art\u0131\u015f\u0131 beklemiyor; bu ay Resmi Nakit Oran\u0131\u2019n\u0131n (OCR) sabit b\u0131rak\u0131laca\u011f\u0131n\u0131, ard\u0131ndan Eyl\u00fcl\u2019den itibaren kademeli s\u0131k\u0131la\u015fman\u0131n yeniden ba\u015flayaca\u011f\u0131n\u0131 \u00f6ng\u00f6r\u00fcyor. Banka, her seferinde 25 baz puanl\u0131k ad\u0131mlarla politika faizinin 2027 ba\u015flar\u0131nda %3,25\u2019e ula\u015faca\u011f\u0131n\u0131 tahmin ediyor. ABD\u2019de ise Haziran Tar\u0131m D\u0131\u015f\u0131 \u0130stihdam 110 bin beklentisine kar\u015f\u0131l\u0131k 57 bin artt\u0131; CME FedWatch g\u00f6stergesi de Eyl\u00fcl\u2019de bir hamle ihtimalinin yakla\u015f\u0131k %63\u2019ten %53\u2019e geriledi\u011fine i\u015faret ederek Greenback \u00fczerinde bask\u0131 olu\u015fturdu.<\/p>\n\n
ABD i\u015fg\u00fcc\u00fc piyasas\u0131ndaki belirgin yava\u015flama dikkate al\u0131nd\u0131\u011f\u0131nda, NZD\/USD\u2019nin \u00f6n\u00fcm\u00fczdeki haftalarda daha y\u00fcksek bir trende girmesi i\u00e7in net bir f\u0131rsat g\u00f6r\u00fcyoruz. Yaln\u0131zca 57 binlik istihdam art\u0131\u015f\u0131 tek seferlik bir sapma de\u011fil; son bir y\u0131lda g\u00f6r\u00fclen so\u011fuma e\u011filimini teyit ediyor. Nitekim ABD\u2019de a\u00e7\u0131k i\u015f say\u0131s\u0131 da yak\u0131n d\u00f6nemde 2021\u2019den bu yana ilk kez 8 milyonun alt\u0131na geriledi. ABD ekonomisindeki bu temel zay\u0131fl\u0131k, ABD Dolar\u0131 \u00fczerinde anlaml\u0131 bir a\u015fa\u011f\u0131 y\u00f6nl\u00fc bask\u0131 yarat\u0131yor.<\/p>\n\n
Bu durum, i\u015flem yap\u0131labilir \u00f6l\u00e7\u00fcde belirgin bir para politikas\u0131 ayr\u0131\u015fmas\u0131 do\u011furuyor. Fed\u2019in faiz art\u0131rma olas\u0131l\u0131\u011f\u0131 azal\u0131rken, Yeni Zelanda\u2019da enflasyon inat\u00e7\u0131 \u015fekilde y\u00fcksek kalmay\u0131 s\u00fcrd\u00fcr\u00fcyor ve son olarak y\u0131ll\u0131k %3,6 seviyesinde kaydedildi; bu da RBNZ\u2019yi s\u0131k\u0131la\u015fma patikas\u0131nda tutuyor. \u0130ki merkez bankas\u0131 aras\u0131ndaki bu politika fark\u0131n\u0131n a\u00e7\u0131lmas\u0131n\u0131 ve bunun do\u011frudan Kiwi dolar\u0131n\u0131 desteklemesini bekliyoruz.<\/p>\n\n
Yat\u0131r\u0131mc\u0131lar a\u00e7\u0131s\u0131ndan bu tablo, t\u00fcrev ara\u00e7lar \u00fczerinden NZD\/USD\u2019de ilave g\u00fc\u00e7lenmeye y\u00f6nelik pozisyonlanmay\u0131 i\u015faret ediyor. Beklenen yukar\u0131 y\u00f6nl\u00fc momentumu de\u011ferlendirirken riski y\u00f6netmek i\u00e7in NZD\/USD paritesinde al\u0131m (call) opsiyonlar\u0131 alman\u0131n ihtiyatl\u0131 bir strateji oldu\u011funu d\u00fc\u015f\u00fcn\u00fcyoruz. \u0130stihdam verisi sonras\u0131 piyasa volatilitesindeki art\u0131\u015f, bu opsiyonlar\u0131n fiyat hareketlerine duyarl\u0131l\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 y\u00fckseltiyor; bu i\u015flem de tam olarak bu dinami\u011fi hedefliyor.<\/p>\n\n
Yeni Zelanda\u2019n\u0131n en b\u00fcy\u00fck ticaret orta\u011f\u0131 olan \u00c7in\u2019den gelen olumlu ekonomik sinyaller de bu g\u00f6r\u00fc\u015fe ek bir destek katman\u0131 sa\u011fl\u0131yor. \u00c7in\u2019in hizmet sekt\u00f6r\u00fc art\u0131k 18 ayd\u0131r kesintisiz geni\u015fliyor; bu da istikrarla\u015fmaya i\u015faret ederek Yeni Zelanda ihracat\u0131na y\u00f6nelik talebi destekliyor. Bu durum, NZD\u2019yi k\u00fcresel yava\u015flama endi\u015felerine kar\u015f\u0131 nispeten korumal\u0131 k\u0131l\u0131yor ve zay\u0131flayan ABD Dolar\u0131 kar\u015f\u0131s\u0131nda g\u00fcc\u00fcn\u00fc peki\u015ftiriyor.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
Hemen i\u015flem yapmaya ba\u015flay\u0131n \u2014 ger\u00e7ek VT Markets hesab\u0131n\u0131z\u0131 olu\u015fturmak i\u00e7in buraya<\/a> t\u0131klay\u0131n.<\/b>\n\n<\/p>","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":" Kiwi r\u00fczg\u00e2r\u0131 sert esiyor: Zay\u0131f ABD istihdam\u0131 Dolar\u2019\u0131 bask\u0131larken NZD\/USD 0,5710\u2019a t\u0131rmand\u0131. \u00c7in hizmet PMI\u2019\u0131 destekliyor; RBNZ s\u0131k\u0131, Fed ihtimali d\u00fc\u015f\u00fcyor. Likidite d\u00fc\u015f\u00fck, y\u00fckseli\u015f s\u0131n\u0131rl\u0131.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":87,"featured_media":50135,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[71],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-50626","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-live-updates"],"acf":{"acf_article_selection_author":null},"aioseo_notices":[],"aioseo_head":"\n\t\t\n\t\n\t\n\t\n\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t