{"id":50622,"date":"2026-07-03T21:59:23","date_gmt":"2026-07-03T21:59:23","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/uncategorized\/wells-fargo-japon-ucretlerindeki-artisin-bojun-normallesme-patikasini-pekistirdigini-goruyor-eylulde-faiz-artisi-one-cikiyor\/"},"modified":"2026-07-03T21:59:23","modified_gmt":"2026-07-03T21:59:23","slug":"wells-fargo-japon-ucretlerindeki-artisin-bojun-normallesme-patikasini-pekistirdigini-goruyor-eylulde-faiz-artisi-one-cikiyor","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/live-updates\/wells-fargo-japon-ucretlerindeki-artisin-bojun-normallesme-patikasini-pekistirdigini-goruyor-eylulde-faiz-artisi-one-cikiyor\/","title":{"rendered":"Wells Fargo, Japon \u00fccretlerindeki art\u0131\u015f\u0131n BoJ\u2019un normalle\u015fme patikas\u0131n\u0131 peki\u015ftirdi\u011fini g\u00f6r\u00fcyor; Eyl\u00fcl\u2019de faiz art\u0131\u015f\u0131 \u00f6ne \u00e7\u0131k\u0131yor"},"content":{"rendered":"

Wells Fargo Economics, gelecek hafta a\u00e7\u0131klanacak Japonya\u2019n\u0131n May\u0131s ay\u0131 nakit \u00fccret kazan\u00e7lar\u0131n\u0131n, kal\u0131c\u0131 bir \u00fccret-fiyat d\u00f6ng\u00fcs\u00fcne ili\u015fkin kan\u0131tlar\u0131 g\u00fc\u00e7lendirmesini ve Japonya Merkez Bankas\u0131\u2019n\u0131 (BoJ) politika normalle\u015fmesi patikas\u0131nda tutmas\u0131n\u0131 bekliyor. Nisan verileri, nakit \u00fccret kazan\u00e7lar\u0131n\u0131n y\u0131ll\u0131k bazda %3,6 artt\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 g\u00f6sterirken, BoJ\u2019un temel \u00fccret ivmesi i\u00e7in tercih etti\u011fi g\u00f6sterge olan normal mesai \u00fccretleri %3,3 y\u00fckseldi. Banka ayr\u0131ca dayan\u0131kl\u0131 GSYH ve g\u00fc\u00e7l\u00fc bir 2\u00c7 Tankan raporunu destekleyici makro sinyaller olarak \u00f6ne \u00e7\u0131kar\u0131yor.<\/p>\n

Shunt\u014d g\u00f6r\u00fc\u015fmeleri, Nisan\u2019dan itibaren ge\u00e7erli olmak \u00fczere, \u00fcst \u00fcste \u00fc\u00e7\u00fcnc\u00fc y\u0131l ortalama %5\u2019in \u00fczerinde \u00fccret art\u0131\u015f\u0131 sa\u011flad\u0131; sendikal kapsaman\u0131n s\u0131n\u0131rl\u0131 olmas\u0131na ra\u011fmen, anla\u015fmalar ile fiili \u00fccret \u00f6demeleri aras\u0131ndaki gecikmenin \u00f6n\u00fcm\u00fczdeki aylarda kazan\u00e7 art\u0131\u015f\u0131n\u0131 desteklemesi bekleniyor. Enflasyon \u201cyumu\u015fak\u201d olarak tan\u0131mlan\u0131rken, kamu s\u00fcbvansiyonlar\u0131n\u0131n etkisinin azalmas\u0131 ve zay\u0131f yenin ithalat fiyatlar\u0131na yans\u0131mas\u0131, enflasyonda kademeli toparlanman\u0131n itici g\u00fc\u00e7leri olarak \u00e7er\u00e7eveleniyor. Bu \u00e7er\u00e7evede Wells Fargo, BoJ\u2019un 3\u00c7\u2019de (en olas\u0131 Eyl\u00fcl) 25 baz puanl\u0131k bir faiz art\u0131\u015f\u0131na gidece\u011fi \u00f6ng\u00f6r\u00fcs\u00fcn\u00fc koruyor ve politika faizinin y\u0131l sonunda %1,25\u2019e \u00e7\u0131kaca\u011f\u0131n\u0131 tahmin ediyor.<\/p>\n

\u0130\u015fg\u00fcc\u00fc Verileri, BoJ\u2019da Politika Normalle\u015fmesi Arg\u00fcman\u0131n\u0131 G\u00fc\u00e7lendiriyor<\/h3>\n

May\u0131s ay\u0131 nakit \u00fccret kazan\u00e7lar\u0131n\u0131n y\u0131ll\u0131k bazda %3,8 art\u0131\u015fla a\u00e7\u0131klanmas\u0131yla birlikte, BoJ\u2019un politika normalle\u015fmesi y\u00f6n\u00fcndeki patikas\u0131na net bir destek g\u00f6r\u00fcyoruz. Bu, \u00fc\u00e7\u00fcnc\u00fc y\u0131l \u00fcst \u00fcste ortalama %5\u2019in \u00fczerinde ger\u00e7ekle\u015fen g\u00fc\u00e7l\u00fc Shunt\u014d \u00fccret anla\u015fmalar\u0131n\u0131n da etkisiyle \u00fccret-fiyat d\u00f6ng\u00fcs\u00fcn\u00fcn yerle\u015fti\u011fini teyit ediyor. Bu nedenle, Eyl\u00fcl kadar erken bir tarihte faiz art\u0131\u015f\u0131 ihtimaline g\u00f6re pozisyon al\u0131yoruz.<\/p>\n

Piyasa Stratejisi: Y\u00fckselen Faizlere ve Yen G\u00fc\u00e7lenmesine Pozisyonlanma<\/h3>\n

Bu do\u011frultuda Japon devlet tahvili (JGB) vadeli i\u015flemlerinde k\u0131sa (short) pozisyon f\u0131rsatlar\u0131na bak\u0131yoruz. BoJ faiz art\u0131r\u0131mlar\u0131na y\u00f6neldik\u00e7e tahvil fiyatlar\u0131n\u0131n d\u00fc\u015fmesini bekliyoruz; bu da politika de\u011fi\u015fiminden faydalanmak i\u00e7in do\u011frudan bir kanal sunuyor. Bu strateji, 2024\u2019te negatif faizden \u00e7\u0131k\u0131\u015fla ba\u015flayan ilk politika de\u011fi\u015fimi \u00f6ncesindeki pozisyonlanmaya benzer; s\u00f6z konusu ad\u0131m bu normalle\u015fme d\u00f6ng\u00fcs\u00fcn\u00fcn ba\u015flang\u0131c\u0131n\u0131 i\u015faret etmi\u015fti.<\/p>\n

Bu i\u015flemin di\u011fer y\u00fcz\u00fc, \u00f6zellikle USD\/JPY\u2019nin \u015fu anda 162,50 civar\u0131nda seyretmesiyle, g\u00fc\u00e7lenen yen. 160 seviyesinin alt\u0131na olas\u0131 bir d\u00fc\u015f\u00fc\u015ften yararlanmak i\u00e7in JPY al\u0131m (call) opsiyonlar\u0131 veya USD\/JPY sat\u0131m (put) opsiyonlar\u0131 almay\u0131 de\u011ferlendiriyoruz. Bu enstr\u00fcmanlar, BoJ\u2019un bir sonraki ad\u0131m\u0131n\u0131 beklerken s\u0131n\u0131rl\u0131\/\u00f6nceden tan\u0131ml\u0131 risk sunuyor.<\/p>\n

Son a\u00e7\u0131klanan %2,7\u2019lik ulusal \u00e7ekirdek T\u00dcFE verisi de kanaatimizi g\u00fc\u00e7lendiriyor; zira azalan kamu s\u00fcbvansiyonlar\u0131 altta yatan fiyat bask\u0131lar\u0131n\u0131 daha g\u00f6r\u00fcn\u00fcr k\u0131lmaya ba\u015fl\u0131yor. Bu enflasyon verisi, BoJ\u2019un ilave s\u0131k\u0131la\u015ft\u0131rmaya devam etmesi i\u00e7in ihtiya\u00e7 duydu\u011fu \u201calan\u0131\u201d sa\u011fl\u0131yor. Piyasan\u0131n, y\u0131l sonuna do\u011fru faizin %1,25\u2019e y\u00fckselmesine giden s\u00fcre\u00e7te gelecekteki art\u0131\u015flar\u0131n h\u0131z\u0131n\u0131 h\u00e2l\u00e2 yeterince fiyatlamad\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 d\u00fc\u015f\u00fcn\u00fcyoruz.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Hemen i\u015flem yapmaya ba\u015flay\u0131n \u2014 ger\u00e7ek VT Markets hesab\u0131n\u0131z\u0131 olu\u015fturmak i\u00e7in buraya<\/a> t\u0131klay\u0131n.<\/b>\n\n<\/p>","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

Japonya\u2019da \u00fccret art\u0131\u015flar\u0131 h\u0131z kesmiyor: May\u0131s nakit kazan\u00e7lar %3,8. Shunt\u014d etkisiyle \u00fccret-fiyat d\u00f6ng\u00fcs\u00fc g\u00fc\u00e7lenirken Wells Fargo, BoJ\u2019un Eyl\u00fcl\u2019de 25 bp art\u0131\u015fla y\u0131l sonu faizi %1,25 \u00f6ng\u00f6r\u00fcyor.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":87,"featured_media":50107,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[71],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-50622","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-live-updates"],"acf":{"acf_article_selection_author":null},"aioseo_notices":[],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/50622","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/87"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=50622"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/50622\/revisions"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/50107"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=50622"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=50622"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=50622"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}