{"id":50619,"date":"2026-07-03T20:59:04","date_gmt":"2026-07-03T20:59:04","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/uncategorized\/ing-tatil-nedeniyle-azalan-likiditenin-asagi-yonlu-oynakligi-artirmasiyla-usd-jpyde-mudahale-riskine-dikkat-cekti\/"},"modified":"2026-07-03T20:59:04","modified_gmt":"2026-07-03T20:59:04","slug":"ing-tatil-nedeniyle-azalan-likiditenin-asagi-yonlu-oynakligi-artirmasiyla-usd-jpyde-mudahale-riskine-dikkat-cekti","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/live-updates\/ing-tatil-nedeniyle-azalan-likiditenin-asagi-yonlu-oynakligi-artirmasiyla-usd-jpyde-mudahale-riskine-dikkat-cekti\/","title":{"rendered":"ING, tatil nedeniyle azalan likiditenin a\u015fa\u011f\u0131 y\u00f6nl\u00fc oynakl\u0131\u011f\u0131 art\u0131rmas\u0131yla USD\/JPY\u2019de m\u00fcdahale riskine dikkat \u00e7ekti"},"content":{"rendered":"

ING, zay\u0131f ABD istihdam verisi \u00f6ncesinde g\u00f6r\u00fclen taze a\u015fa\u011f\u0131 y\u00f6nl\u00fc oynakl\u0131\u011f\u0131n USD\/JPY\u2019de m\u00fcdahale riskini art\u0131rd\u0131\u011f\u0131na dikkat \u00e7ekti. Banka, paritenin k\u0131sa s\u00fcreli\u011fine 161,0 seviyesinin alt\u0131na sarkmas\u0131na yol a\u00e7an ilk d\u00fc\u015f\u00fc\u015f\u00fcn halihaz\u0131rda d\u00f6viz piyasas\u0131 m\u00fcdahalesini i\u00e7ermi\u015f olabilece\u011fini belirtti ve bug\u00fcn ile pazartesi g\u00fcnk\u00fc ABD tatillerinin likiditeyi azaltarak fiyat hareketlerini b\u00fcy\u00fctebilece\u011fini vurgulad\u0131. ING ayr\u0131ca, 2024\u2019te Japon otoritelerinin tatiller civar\u0131nda m\u00fcdahaleye e\u011filimli oldu\u011funa ve operasyonlar\u0131 birden fazla g\u00fcne yayd\u0131\u011f\u0131na; zaman zaman ABD dolar\u0131 aleyhine kataliz\u00f6rlerin ard\u0131ndan harekete ge\u00e7ti\u011fine i\u015faret etti.<\/p>\n

Piyasa fiyatlamas\u0131 da de\u011fi\u015fti. USD\/JPY bir haftal\u0131k risk reversal\u2019lar\u0131nda g\u00f6r\u00fclen sert d\u00fc\u015f\u00fc\u015f, yak\u0131n vadeli m\u00fcdahale ihtimalinin (implied) artt\u0131\u011f\u0131na dair bir kan\u0131t olarak g\u00f6sterildi. Zay\u0131flayan ABD verilerinin k\u0131sa vadede yeni destekleyici oldu\u011fu belirtildi; ancak ING, Nisan\/May\u0131s m\u00fcdahale turunun ard\u0131ndan g\u00f6r\u00fclen USD\/JPY toparlanmas\u0131n\u0131n tekrarlanmamas\u0131 i\u00e7in Japonya Merkez Bankas\u0131 (BoJ) ileti\u015fiminin faizler konusunda daha \u015fahinle\u015fmesi gerekti\u011fini s\u00f6yledi.<\/p>\n

Oynakl\u0131k, M\u00fcdahale Zamanlamas\u0131 ve Piyasa Pozisyonlanmas\u0131<\/h3>\n

USD\/JPY\u2019nin d\u00fcn, zay\u0131f haziran istihdam raporu a\u00e7\u0131klanmadan \u00f6nce bile a\u015fa\u011f\u0131 y\u00f6nl\u00fc dalgal\u0131 bir seyir izledi\u011fini g\u00f6r\u00fcyoruz. Paritenin yak\u0131n zamanda 172,50 ile onlarca y\u0131l\u0131n zirvesine dokunmu\u015f olmas\u0131 nedeniyle, Japon otoritelerinin piyasaya m\u00fcdahaleye halihaz\u0131rda ba\u015flam\u0131\u015f olabilece\u011fi ihtimalini g\u00f6z ard\u0131 edemiyoruz. Bug\u00fcnk\u00fc ABD Ba\u011f\u0131ms\u0131zl\u0131k G\u00fcn\u00fc tatili likiditeyi inceltiyor; bu da m\u00fcdahalenin daha g\u00fc\u00e7l\u00fc etki yaratmas\u0131 i\u00e7in elveri\u015fli ko\u015fullar olu\u015fturuyor.<\/p>\n

Bu ortamda, \u00f6n\u00fcm\u00fczdeki g\u00fcnlerde oynakl\u0131kta belirgin bir art\u0131\u015f bekliyoruz. T\u00fcrev piyasalar\u0131 da bunu fiyatl\u0131yor: bir haftal\u0131k USD\/JPY risk reversal\u2019lar\u0131 -4,5 seviyesine kadar gerileyerek, paritede ani bir d\u00fc\u015f\u00fc\u015fe kar\u015f\u0131 koruma sa\u011flayan opsiyonlara g\u00fc\u00e7l\u00fc talebe i\u015faret ediyor. Bu da, olas\u0131 resmi bir ad\u0131m i\u00e7in k\u0131sa vadeli JPY al\u0131m opsiyonlar\u0131 (veya USD\/JPY sat\u0131m opsiyonlar\u0131) sat\u0131n alman\u0131n, pozisyonlanma a\u00e7\u0131s\u0131ndan temkinli bir strateji olabilece\u011fini d\u00fc\u015f\u00fcnd\u00fcr\u00fcyor.<\/p>\n

Kal\u0131c\u0131 Yen G\u00fcc\u00fc \u00d6n\u00fcndeki Zorluklar<\/h3>\n

Bununla birlikte, Nisan\/May\u0131s 2024 m\u00fcdahalelerinden \u00e7\u0131kar\u0131lan dersleri hat\u0131rlamak gerekiyor: yakla\u015f\u0131k 10 trilyon yen harcamaya ra\u011fmen yen, haftalar i\u00e7inde yeniden zay\u0131flam\u0131\u015ft\u0131. Beklenti 200.000 iken yaln\u0131zca 155.000 gelen son ABD Tar\u0131m D\u0131\u015f\u0131 \u0130stihdam verisi yeni destekliyor; ancak bu uzun vadeli bir \u00e7\u00f6z\u00fcm de\u011fil. BoJ\u2019dan faiz art\u0131r\u0131mlar\u0131na ili\u015fkin daha agresif (\u015fahin) bir ileti\u015fim gelmedik\u00e7e, m\u00fcdahale kaynakl\u0131 y\u00fckseli\u015fin s\u00f6n\u00fcmlenmesi olas\u0131.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Hemen i\u015flem yapmaya ba\u015flay\u0131n \u2014 ger\u00e7ek VT Markets hesab\u0131n\u0131z\u0131 olu\u015fturmak i\u00e7in buraya<\/a> t\u0131klay\u0131n.<\/b>\n\n<\/p>","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

Dolar\/yen\u2019de zay\u0131f ABD istihdam\u0131 \u00f6ncesi sert d\u00fc\u015f\u00fc\u015f, Japonya\u2019n\u0131n m\u00fcdahale riskini yeniden y\u00fckseltti. Tatil kaynakl\u0131 d\u00fc\u015f\u00fck likidite hareketi b\u00fcy\u00fctebilir. Risk reversal \u00e7ak\u0131ld\u0131; BoJ \u015fahinle\u015fmezse yen g\u00fcc\u00fc kal\u0131c\u0131 olmayabilir.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":87,"featured_media":50086,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[71],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-50619","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-live-updates"],"acf":{"acf_article_selection_author":null},"aioseo_notices":[],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/50619","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/87"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=50619"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/50619\/revisions"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/50086"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=50619"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=50619"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=50619"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}