Alt\u0131n cuma g\u00fcn\u00fc y\u00fckseldi. XAU\/USD g\u00fcn i\u00e7inde yakla\u015f\u0131k %1,16 art\u0131\u015fla 4.170 dolar civar\u0131nda i\u015flem g\u00f6rd\u00fc. ABD Tar\u0131m D\u0131\u015f\u0131 \u0130stihdam verisinin zay\u0131f gelmesi ABD Dolar\u0131 \u00fczerinde bask\u0131 yarat\u0131rken, bir sonraki Federal Rezerv ad\u0131m\u0131na ili\u015fkin beklentilerin de \u00f6telenmesine yol a\u00e7t\u0131. Dolar endeksi (DXY), ABD\u2019nin haziranda piyasa beklentisi olan 110 binin alt\u0131nda kalarak 57 bin istihdam eklemesinin ard\u0131ndan, iki haftan\u0131n en d\u00fc\u015f\u00fck seviyelerine yak\u0131n 100,76 civar\u0131nda seyretti. Piyasalar faiz art\u0131\u015f\u0131 fiyatlamas\u0131n\u0131 eyl\u00fclden aral\u0131\u011fa kayd\u0131rd\u0131; CME FedWatch, eyl\u00fclde faiz art\u0131r\u0131m\u0131 olas\u0131l\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131n %63\u2019ten %53\u2019e geriledi\u011fini, aral\u0131k ihtimalinin ise %76,8 oldu\u011funu g\u00f6sterdi. Yeniden fiyatlama, alt\u0131n\u0131n sal\u0131 g\u00fcn\u00fc g\u00f6r\u00fclen yedi ay\u0131n dibi 3.949 dolardan toparlanmas\u0131na yard\u0131mc\u0131 olurken, fiyatlar\u0131 son be\u015f haftan\u0131n ilk haftal\u0131k y\u00fckseli\u015fine haz\u0131rlad\u0131.<\/p>\n
Alt\u0131n, ocak ay\u0131ndaki 5.600 dolar civar\u0131ndaki zirvesinden yakla\u015f\u0131k %28\u2019lik d\u00fc\u015f\u00fc\u015f\u00fcn ard\u0131ndan 4.000 dolar\u0131n \u00fczerinde tutunmay\u0131 ba\u015fard\u0131 ve petrol fiyatlar\u0131n\u0131n ABD-\u0130ran sava\u015f primi zirvelerinden gerilemesi ile enflasyon Fed\u2019in %2 hedefine yakla\u015fana kadar politikan\u0131n s\u0131k\u0131 kalaca\u011f\u0131 beklentileri dahil, makro g\u00f6r\u00fcn\u00fcm yak\u0131ndan izleniyor. Resmi sekt\u00f6r talebi destekleyici olmaya devam ediyor: D\u00fcnya Alt\u0131n Konseyi verileri, merkez bankalar\u0131n\u0131n may\u0131sta net 41 ton al\u0131m yapt\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 g\u00f6sterirken, Kurum\u2019un 2026 Merkez Bankas\u0131 Alt\u0131n Rezervleri Anketi kat\u0131l\u0131mc\u0131lar\u0131n\u0131n %89\u2019u \u00f6n\u00fcm\u00fczdeki 12 ayda k\u00fcresel rezervlerin artmas\u0131n\u0131 bekliyor; %45\u2019i ise kendi alt\u0131n varl\u0131klar\u0131n\u0131 art\u0131rmay\u0131 planl\u0131yor. Teknik tarafta XAU\/USD, 20 g\u00fcnl\u00fck SMA\u2019n\u0131n ge\u00e7ti\u011fi 4.156 dolar civar\u0131n\u0131 yeniden test ederken, Bollinger \u00fcst band\u0131 4.371 dolar, alt band\u0131 3.942 dolar seviyesinde bulunuyor; RSI yakla\u015f\u0131k 47\u2019de, MACD ise pozitif b\u00f6lgede kalmay\u0131 s\u00fcrd\u00fcr\u00fcyor.<\/p>\n
Zay\u0131f gelen haziran istihdam raporu dikkate al\u0131nd\u0131\u011f\u0131nda, alt\u0131n\u0131n toparlanmas\u0131n\u0131 s\u00fcrd\u00fcrmesi i\u00e7in yak\u0131n vadede bir f\u0131rsat g\u00f6r\u00fcyoruz. Piyasan\u0131n Fed\u2019in faiz art\u0131r\u0131m beklentisini \u00f6telemesi ABD Dolar\u0131\u2019n\u0131 zay\u0131flat\u0131yor; bu da do\u011frudan alt\u0131n fiyatlar\u0131n\u0131 destekliyor. Bu duyarl\u0131l\u0131k de\u011fi\u015fiminden faydalanmak i\u00e7in k\u0131sa vadeli y\u00fckseli\u015f (bullish) stratejileri de\u011ferlendirilmelidir.<\/p>\n
\u00d6n\u00fcm\u00fczdeki birka\u00e7 hafta i\u00e7in, 4.371 dolardaki diren\u00e7 seviyesine yakla\u015fan kullan\u0131m fiyatl\u0131 (strike) al\u0131m (call) opsiyonlar\u0131na odaklan\u0131yoruz. \u0130zlenmesi gereken temel destek, 4.156 dolar civar\u0131ndaki 20 g\u00fcnl\u00fck hareketli ortalama. Alt\u0131n bu seviyenin \u00fczerinde kald\u0131\u011f\u0131 s\u00fcrece, en muhtemel y\u00f6n yukar\u0131.<\/p>\n
Bu k\u0131sa vadeli g\u00fc\u00e7, resmi kurumlardan gelen \u00e7ok g\u00fc\u00e7l\u00fc temel taleple de destekleniyor. Bu y\u0131l\u0131n ilk \u00e7eyre\u011finde merkez bankalar\u0131 rezervlerine 290 ton gibi y\u00fcksek bir miktar ekleyerek, kay\u0131tlardaki en g\u00fc\u00e7l\u00fc y\u0131l ba\u015flang\u0131c\u0131na imza att\u0131. Bu istikrarl\u0131 al\u0131mlar piyasada sa\u011flam bir taban olu\u015fturuyor ve geri \u00e7ekilmelerde al\u0131m yapma konusunda g\u00fcven veriyor.<\/p>\n
Buna kar\u015f\u0131n, orta vade i\u00e7in temkinli kalmak gerekiyor; zira Fed faiz art\u0131r\u0131m\u0131 iptal edilmi\u015f de\u011fil, yaln\u0131zca ertelenmi\u015f durumda. 2023\u2019te piyasalar\u0131n defalarca Fed\u2019de \u201cpivot\u201d fiyatlay\u0131p bunun aylarca ger\u00e7ekle\u015fmemesi, a\u015f\u0131r\u0131 g\u00fcvercin konumlanan yat\u0131r\u0131mc\u0131lar\u0131 zor durumda b\u0131rakm\u0131\u015ft\u0131. Aral\u0131k ay\u0131 faiz art\u0131\u015f\u0131 olas\u0131l\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131n h\u00e2l\u00e2 %75\u2019in \u00fczerinde olmas\u0131, tarih yakla\u015ft\u0131k\u00e7a alt\u0131ndaki y\u00fckseli\u015fi s\u0131n\u0131rlayacakt\u0131r.<\/p>\n
Petrol fiyatlar\u0131ndaki d\u00fc\u015f\u00fc\u015f man\u015fet enflasyonu a\u015fa\u011f\u0131 \u00e7ekmeye yard\u0131mc\u0131 olsa da, Fed\u2019in ana oda\u011f\u0131 \u00e7ekirdek enflasyon. Enerji fiyatlar\u0131 gerilese bile \u00e7ekirdek PCE enflasyonu son olarak %2,9 seviyesinde ve %2 hedefinin belirgin \u015fekilde \u00fczerinde. Bu da Fed\u2019in yak\u0131n zamanda net bir g\u00fcvercin d\u00f6n\u00fc\u015f sinyali vermesini olduk\u00e7a d\u00fc\u015f\u00fck olas\u0131l\u0131kl\u0131 k\u0131l\u0131yor.<\/p>\n
Bu nedenle, y\u00fckseli\u015f y\u00f6nl\u00fc i\u015flemlerde riski tan\u0131mlamak i\u00e7in opsiyon kullanmay\u0131 stratejimizin merkezine alaca\u011f\u0131z. 4.371 dolara do\u011fru bir harekette getiri sa\u011flayabilecek, ancak ralli s\u00f6n\u00fcmlenirse korunma da sunan al\u0131m (call) spread\u2019leri de\u011ferlendirilebilir. Bu yakla\u015f\u0131m, mevcut y\u00fckseli\u015ften faydalanmay\u0131 sa\u011flarken, uzun vadeli \u00f6nemli kar\u015f\u0131 r\u00fczg\u00e2rlar\u0131n varl\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 da kabul eder.<\/p>\n\n\n\n