Alt\u0131n, sert ikinci \u00e7eyrek d\u00fc\u015f\u00fc\u015f\u00fcn\u00fcn ard\u0131ndan, ons ba\u015f\u0131na 4.200 ABD dolar\u0131na do\u011fru toparland\u0131. \u0130ki g\u00fcnde yakla\u015f\u0131k 200 ABD dolar\u0131 geri alan de\u011ferli metal, son be\u015f haftan\u0131n ilk haftal\u0131k kazanc\u0131na y\u00f6nelirken, ikinci \u00e7eyrekteki keskin gerilemenin ard\u0131ndan nefes ald\u0131. Alt\u0131n 2\u00c7\u2019de %14 d\u00fc\u015ferek son 13 y\u0131l\u0131n en sert \u00e7eyreklik kayb\u0131n\u0131 ya\u015fad\u0131; y\u0131l\u0131n ilk yar\u0131s\u0131nda ise kay\u0131p %7\u2019nin biraz \u00fczerindeydi. Y\u00fckseli\u015f, zay\u0131f ABD istihdam verileri ve faiz art\u0131\u015flar\u0131na ili\u015fkin beklentilerin yumu\u015famas\u0131yla geldi; ancak y\u00fckseli\u015fin, verinin a\u00e7\u0131klanmas\u0131ndan \u00f6nce ba\u015flad\u0131\u011f\u0131 g\u00f6r\u00fcld\u00fc.<\/p>\n\n
Commerzbank\u2019tan Carsten Fritsch, toparlanmay\u0131; yaln\u0131zca de\u011fi\u015fen faiz beklentileriyle a\u00e7\u0131klanamayacak \u00f6l\u00e7\u00fcde h\u0131zlanan \u00f6nceki d\u00fc\u015f\u00fc\u015f\u00fcn ard\u0131ndan gelen \u201cd\u00fczeltme\u201d hareketi olarak nitelendirdi. Fritsch ayr\u0131ca, 4.000 ABD dolar\u0131n\u0131n alt\u0131na ini\u015flerin genellikle k\u0131sa s\u00fcrd\u00fc\u011f\u00fcne dikkat \u00e7ekerek olas\u0131 bir dip olu\u015fumuna i\u015faret etti. Ayr\u0131 olarak, yay\u0131nc\u0131 kurulu\u015f makalenin yapay zek\u00e2 arac\u0131yla \u00fcretildi\u011fini ve bir edit\u00f6r taraf\u0131ndan g\u00f6zden ge\u00e7irildi\u011fini belirtti.<\/p>\n\n
Alt\u0131n\u0131n ons ba\u015f\u0131na 4.200 dolara do\u011fru toparland\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 g\u00f6r\u00fcyoruz; bu, y\u0131prat\u0131c\u0131 bir ikinci \u00e7eyre\u011fin ard\u0131ndan olumlu bir geri d\u00f6n\u00fc\u015f. Bu hareket, ille de yeni bir bo\u011fa piyasas\u0131n\u0131n ba\u015flang\u0131c\u0131 de\u011fil; abart\u0131l\u0131 bir sat\u0131\u015f dalgas\u0131n\u0131 izleyen bir d\u00fczeltme olarak g\u00f6r\u00fcn\u00fcyor. Kataliz\u00f6r, beklenti olan 220 binin alt\u0131nda kalarak tar\u0131m d\u0131\u015f\u0131 istihdam\u0131n yaln\u0131zca 150 bin artt\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 g\u00f6steren haziran istihdam raporu oldu.<\/p>\n\n
Bu daha zay\u0131f istihdam verisi, \u00f6n\u00fcm\u00fczdeki haftalara ili\u015fkin faiz beklentilerini do\u011frudan etkiledi. CME FedWatch Tool\u2019a g\u00f6re, piyasan\u0131n Fed\u2019in temmuz toplant\u0131s\u0131nda faiz art\u0131\u015f\u0131 ihtimaline bi\u00e7ti\u011fi olas\u0131l\u0131k %75\u2019in \u00fczerinden %40\u2019a geriledi. Agresif faiz art\u0131\u015flar\u0131na y\u00f6nelik beklentiler bask\u0131l\u0131 kald\u0131k\u00e7a, alt\u0131n i\u00e7in a\u015fa\u011f\u0131 y\u00f6nl\u00fc riskin s\u0131n\u0131rl\u0131 oldu\u011funu d\u00fc\u015f\u00fcn\u00fcyoruz.<\/p>\n\n
Bize g\u00f6re 4.000 dolar seviyesinin alt\u0131na tekrarlayan ve k\u0131sa s\u00fcreli sarkmalar, g\u00fc\u00e7l\u00fc bir taban\u0131n olu\u015ftu\u011funa i\u015faret ediyor. Bu seviye g\u00fc\u00e7l\u00fc al\u0131m ilgisi \u00e7ekerek piyasan\u0131n bir dip olu\u015fturma s\u00fcrecinde oldu\u011funu g\u00f6steriyor. Yeni veriler Fed\u2019i yeniden daha \u201c\u015fahin\u201d bir \u00e7izgiye itmedik\u00e7e, ilave belirgin fiyat d\u00fc\u015f\u00fc\u015fleri beklemiyoruz.<\/p>\n\n
\u00c7eyreklik %14\u2019l\u00fck d\u00fc\u015f\u00fc\u015f, Fed politikas\u0131nda olas\u0131 bir de\u011fi\u015fim korkular\u0131n\u0131n etkili oldu\u011fu 2013\u2019\u00fcn ikinci \u00e7eyre\u011finden bu yana en k\u00f6t\u00fc performanst\u0131. O d\u00f6nemde oldu\u011fu gibi, \u00f6nceki fiyat d\u00fc\u015f\u00fc\u015f\u00fc de yaln\u0131zca faiz hareketleriyle a\u00e7\u0131klanabilece\u011finden daha sertti. Bu da panik sat\u0131\u015flar\u0131n\u0131n b\u00fcy\u00fck \u00f6l\u00e7\u00fcde geride kald\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 d\u00fc\u015f\u00fcnd\u00fcr\u00fcyor.<\/p>\n\n
Bu \u00e7er\u00e7evede, volatilite satman\u0131n temkinli bir strateji olabilece\u011fini d\u00fc\u015f\u00fcn\u00fcyoruz. Fiyat istikrar kazan\u0131rken, sat\u0131\u015f dalgas\u0131 s\u0131ras\u0131nda y\u00fckselen alt\u0131n opsiyonlar\u0131ndaki z\u0131mni volatilitenin gerilemesi muhtemel. Prim toplamak amac\u0131yla, a\u011fustos vadeli ve 4.000 dolar destek seviyesinin alt\u0131nda kullan\u0131m fiyatl\u0131 nakit teminatl\u0131 sat\u0131m (cash-secured put) opsiyonu satmay\u0131 de\u011ferlendiriyoruz.<\/p>\n\n
S\u0131n\u0131rl\u0131 bir toparlanmaya pozisyon almak isteyenler i\u00e7in, riski tan\u0131ml\u0131 stratejiler\u2014\u00f6rne\u011fin bo\u011fa al\u0131m spread\u2019leri (bull call spread)\u2014cazip. A\u011fustos ayl\u0131k vade i\u00e7in 4.150 kullan\u0131m fiyatl\u0131 al\u0131m opsiyonu (call) al\u0131p e\u015f zamanl\u0131 olarak 4.300 kullan\u0131m fiyatl\u0131 call satmak d\u00fc\u015f\u00fcn\u00fclebilir. Bu yakla\u015f\u0131m, kademeli bir y\u00fckseli\u015ften faydalan\u0131rken hem potansiyel k\u00e2r\u0131 hem de riski s\u0131n\u0131rlar.<\/p>\n\n\n\n