USD\/CAD Cuma g\u00fcn\u00fc s\u0131n\u0131rl\u0131 y\u00fckseldi ve %0,13 art\u0131\u015fla yakla\u015f\u0131k 1,4200 seviyesine \u00e7\u0131kt\u0131. Hareket, ABD\u2019de daha zay\u0131f gelen istihdam verisinin ard\u0131ndan ABD Dolar\u0131 \u00fczerindeki bask\u0131ya ra\u011fmen, Kanada Dolar\u0131\u2019ndaki zay\u0131fl\u0131\u011f\u0131n daha bask\u0131n gelmesiyle ger\u00e7ekle\u015fti; faiz beklentileri kayarken dahi parite destekli kald\u0131. Haziran\u2019da Tar\u0131m D\u0131\u015f\u0131 \u0130stihdam 110 bin beklentiye kar\u015f\u0131l\u0131k 57 bin artt\u0131; May\u0131s verisi ise 172 binden 129 bine a\u015fa\u011f\u0131 y\u00f6nl\u00fc revize edildi. Verilerin ard\u0131ndan CME FedWatch arac\u0131, Eyl\u00fcl\u2019de Fed\u2019in faiz art\u0131r\u0131m\u0131 i\u00e7in ima edilen olas\u0131l\u0131\u011f\u0131n %63\u2019ten %53\u2019e geriledi\u011fini, Aral\u0131k hamlesi olas\u0131l\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131n ise %76,8 seviyesinde bulundu\u011funu g\u00f6sterdi.<\/p>\n\n
Kanada Dolar\u0131, k\u00fcresel petrol fiyatlar\u0131ndaki gerilemenin Kanada\u2019n\u0131n d\u0131\u015f ticaret hadleri (terms of trade) deste\u011fini a\u015f\u0131nd\u0131rmas\u0131 ve dezenflasyonun s\u00fcrmesi halinde Kanada Merkez Bankas\u0131\u2019n\u0131n (BoC) g\u00fcvercin duru\u015funu koruyaca\u011f\u0131 beklentilerini g\u00fc\u00e7lendirmesiyle zay\u0131f kalmay\u0131 s\u00fcrd\u00fcrd\u00fc. Yurti\u00e7i g\u00f6stergeler yaln\u0131zca s\u0131n\u0131rl\u0131 destek verdi: Kanada\u2019n\u0131n S&P Global \u0130malat PMI verisi Haziran\u2019da 52,9\u2019dan 53\u2019e y\u00fckseldi. \u0130\u015fg\u00fcc\u00fc ko\u015fullar\u0131 \u201czay\u0131f ancak istikrar kazan\u0131yor\u201d \u015feklinde tan\u0131mlan\u0131rken, istihdam art\u0131\u015f\u0131 y\u0131ll\u0131k bazda %1\u2019in alt\u0131nda kald\u0131 ve art\u0131\u015flar\u0131n tam zamanl\u0131 i\u015flerde yo\u011funla\u015ft\u0131\u011f\u0131 belirtildi. Piyasan\u0131n oda\u011f\u0131 \u015fimdi, ekonomi g\u00f6r\u00fcn\u00fcm\u00fc ve BoC politikas\u0131 a\u00e7\u0131s\u0131ndan ipucu verecek Kanada istihdam raporuna \u00e7evrildi.<\/p>\n\n
Zay\u0131f ABD istihdam raporunun, karma\u015f\u0131k ancak nihai olarak USD\/CAD\u2019de y\u00fckseli\u015f a\u00e7\u0131s\u0131ndan elveri\u015fli bir ortam yaratt\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 d\u00fc\u015f\u00fcn\u00fcyoruz. Piyasa, tek bir zay\u0131f veri noktas\u0131n\u0131n ard\u0131ndan ABD Dolar\u0131\u2019n\u0131 cezaland\u0131rd\u0131\u011f\u0131ndan daha fazla, Kanada Dolar\u0131\u2019n\u0131 temel k\u0131r\u0131lganl\u0131klar\u0131 nedeniyle cezaland\u0131r\u0131yor. Bu da paritede en d\u00fc\u015f\u00fck diren\u00e7 yolunun yukar\u0131 y\u00f6n olmaya devam etti\u011fine i\u015faret ediyor.<\/p>\n\n
\u201cLoonie\u201d i\u00e7in temel sorun, enerji fiyatlar\u0131ndaki d\u00fc\u015f\u00fc\u015f. Son EIA raporlar\u0131na g\u00f6re WTI ham petrol\u00fc k\u0131sa s\u00fcre \u00f6nce varil ba\u015f\u0131na 72 dolar\u0131n alt\u0131na geriledi. Bu, Kanada\u2019n\u0131n d\u0131\u015f ticaret hadlerini do\u011frudan etkiliyor ve BoC\u2019nin g\u00fcvercin kalaca\u011f\u0131 g\u00f6r\u00fc\u015f\u00fcm\u00fcz\u00fc peki\u015ftiriyor. Tarihsel olarak 2015\u2019teki gibi petrol\u00fcn kal\u0131c\u0131 bi\u00e7imde zay\u0131f seyretti\u011fi d\u00f6nemlerde USD\/CAD belirgin \u015fekilde y\u00fckselmi\u015f, \u00e7o\u011fu zaman 1,4500 seviyesinin \u00fczerine ta\u015f\u0131nm\u0131\u015ft\u0131.<\/p>\n\n
Bu zay\u0131fl\u0131k, iki \u00fclke aras\u0131ndaki faiz fark\u0131n\u0131n a\u00e7\u0131lmas\u0131yla daha da belirginle\u015fiyor. BoC\u2019nin Haziran\u2019da 25 baz puanl\u0131k indirimle gev\u015feme d\u00f6ng\u00fcs\u00fcn\u00fc ba\u015flatt\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 ve politika faizini %4,50\u2019ye \u00e7ekti\u011fini not ediyoruz. Eyl\u00fcl Fed art\u0131\u015f\u0131 olas\u0131l\u0131\u011f\u0131 d\u00fc\u015fm\u00fc\u015f olsa da, federal fonlama faizi %5,0\u2019\u0131n belirgin \u015fekilde \u00fczerinde kalmaya devam ediyor; bu da ABD Dolar\u0131\u2019n\u0131 elde tutmak a\u00e7\u0131s\u0131ndan daha cazip k\u0131l\u0131yor.<\/p>\n\n
Bu tablo \u00e7er\u00e7evesinde, vadesi Eyl\u00fcl olan USD\/CAD\u2019de kullan\u0131m fiyat\u0131 cari seviyenin \u00fczerinde (out-of-the-money) al\u0131m (call) opsiyonlar\u0131 almay\u0131 d\u00fc\u015f\u00fcn\u00fcyoruz. Bu strateji, \u00f6n\u00fcm\u00fczdeki haftalarda 1,4400 seviyesine do\u011fru olas\u0131 bir harekete kat\u0131lmam\u0131za imk\u00e2n verir. \u00d6denen s\u0131n\u0131rl\u0131 prim, azami riskimizi olu\u015fturur ve sert, beklenmedik bir ters hareket kar\u015f\u0131s\u0131nda koruma sa\u011flar.<\/p>\n\n
Yakla\u015fan Kanada istihdam raporunu, bir trend de\u011fi\u015ftiriciden \u00e7ok potansiyel bir volatilite kayna\u011f\u0131 olarak g\u00f6r\u00fcyoruz. Zay\u0131f bir Kanada istihdam verisi yukar\u0131 hareketi h\u0131zland\u0131rabilir; beklenmedik derecede g\u00fc\u00e7l\u00fc bir rapor ise ge\u00e7ici bir geri \u00e7ekilme sa\u011flayabilir. B\u00f6yle bir geri \u00e7ekilmeyi, uzun pozisyonumuzu art\u0131rmak i\u00e7in daha cazip bir giri\u015f noktas\u0131 olarak de\u011ferlendiririz.<\/p>\n\n\n\n