{"id":50613,"date":"2026-07-03T19:29:29","date_gmt":"2026-07-03T19:29:29","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/uncategorized\/eur-gbp-ecbnin-faiz-artirimi-ihtimalinin-azalmasi-ve-boenin-sahin-durusunu-korumasiyla-bir-yilin-dip-seviyesine-yakin-yatay-seyrediyor\/"},"modified":"2026-07-03T19:29:29","modified_gmt":"2026-07-03T19:29:29","slug":"eur-gbp-ecbnin-faiz-artirimi-ihtimalinin-azalmasi-ve-boenin-sahin-durusunu-korumasiyla-bir-yilin-dip-seviyesine-yakin-yatay-seyrediyor","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/live-updates\/eur-gbp-ecbnin-faiz-artirimi-ihtimalinin-azalmasi-ve-boenin-sahin-durusunu-korumasiyla-bir-yilin-dip-seviyesine-yakin-yatay-seyrediyor\/","title":{"rendered":"EUR\/GBP, ECB\u2019nin faiz art\u0131r\u0131m\u0131 ihtimalinin azalmas\u0131 ve BoE\u2019nin \u015fahin duru\u015funu korumas\u0131yla bir y\u0131l\u0131n dip seviyesine yak\u0131n yatay seyrediyor"},"content":{"rendered":"

EUR\/GBP, \u00e7apraz\u0131 bir y\u0131l\u0131n en d\u00fc\u015f\u00fck seviyesine \u00e7eken d\u00f6rt seansl\u0131k sat\u0131\u015f dalgas\u0131n\u0131n ard\u0131ndan cuma g\u00fcn\u00fc istikrar kazand\u0131; euro dar bir bantta s\u0131n\u0131rl\u0131 da olsa \u00f6ne ge\u00e7ti. Yaz\u0131m s\u0131ras\u0131nda parite 0,8571 civar\u0131ndayd\u0131 ve piyasalar\u0131n daha zay\u0131f bir euro g\u00f6r\u00fcn\u00fcm\u00fcn\u00fc fiyatlamay\u0131 s\u00fcrd\u00fcrmesiyle \u00fcst \u00fcste ikinci haftal\u0131k d\u00fc\u015f\u00fc\u015f\u00fcne y\u00f6nelmi\u015fti.<\/p>\n

Tek para birimi, daha yumu\u015fak enflasyon verilerinin ard\u0131ndan Avrupa Merkez Bankas\u0131\u2019n\u0131n (ECB) ilave s\u0131k\u0131la\u015ft\u0131rma ad\u0131mlar\u0131na y\u00f6nelik beklentilerin zay\u0131flamas\u0131yla bask\u0131 alt\u0131nda kald\u0131. Euro B\u00f6lgesi HICP enflasyonu haziranda y\u0131ll\u0131k bazda may\u0131staki %3,2\u2019den %2,8\u2019e gerilerken, \u00e7ekirdek HICP %2,6\u2019dan %2,4\u2019e indi. Deutsche Bank, eyl\u00fcle kadar ECB art\u0131\u015f ihtimalini %50\u2019nin alt\u0131na \u00e7ekerken, aral\u0131k ay\u0131na kadar bir ad\u0131m olas\u0131l\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 yakla\u015f\u0131k %70 olarak hesaplad\u0131. Aktivite verileri ise kar\u0131\u015f\u0131k seyretti: HCOB Euro B\u00f6lgesi Bile\u015fik PMI haziranda 48,5\u2019ten 50,0\u2019ye y\u00fckselirken, S&P Global Birle\u015fik Krall\u0131k Bile\u015fik PMI \u00dcretim Endeksi 49,7\u2019den 49,3\u2019e gerileyerek ikinci ay \u00fcst \u00fcste 50,0\u2019nin alt\u0131nda kald\u0131; beklenen ECB\u2013\u0130ngiltere Merkez Bankas\u0131 (BoE) faiz fark\u0131 sterlini desteklemeyi s\u00fcrd\u00fcrd\u00fc.<\/p>\n

Merkez Bankas\u0131 Ayr\u0131\u015fmas\u0131 EUR\/GBP G\u00f6r\u00fcn\u00fcm\u00fcn\u00fc Belirliyor<\/h3>\n

EUR\/GBP\u2019nin bir y\u0131ll\u0131k dip seviyeyi g\u00f6rd\u00fckten sonra 0,8571 civar\u0131nda konsolide olmas\u0131yla, merkez bankas\u0131 politikalar\u0131ndaki ayr\u0131\u015fmaya dayal\u0131 bir f\u0131rsat g\u00f6r\u00fcyoruz. Temel belirleyici unsur, ECB ile \u0130ngiltere Merkez Bankas\u0131 aras\u0131ndaki faiz fark\u0131 olmaya devam ediyor. Bu fark\u0131n yak\u0131n vadede sterlinden yana \u00e7al\u0131\u015fmas\u0131 muhtemel.<\/p>\n

Euro B\u00f6lgesi enflasyonunun %2,8\u2019e gerilemesi, ECB \u00fczerindeki bir faiz art\u0131\u015f\u0131 daha de\u011ferlendirme bask\u0131s\u0131n\u0131 azaltt\u0131. 29 Haziran\u2019da a\u00e7\u0131klanan ve blok i\u00e7in kritik bir g\u00f6sterge olan Almanya enflasyonunun da %2,5\u2019e d\u00fc\u015fmesi, ECB\u2019nin faiz art\u0131r\u0131m\u0131 d\u00f6ng\u00fcs\u00fcn\u00fc tamamlad\u0131\u011f\u0131 g\u00f6r\u00fc\u015f\u00fcn\u00fc g\u00fc\u00e7lendirdi. Bu tablo, Birle\u015fik Krall\u0131k\u2019taki durumla belirgin \u015fekilde ayr\u0131\u015f\u0131yor.<\/p>\n

\u00d6te yandan BoE s\u0131k\u0131 duru\u015funu koruyor; may\u0131s ay\u0131 Birle\u015fik Krall\u0131k enflasyonu inat\u00e7\u0131 bi\u00e7imde %3,5 seviyesinde kalarak hedefin belirgin \u00fczerinde seyretti. Ba\u015fkan Bailey\u2019nin faiz indirimlerinin \u201cg\u00fcndemde olmad\u0131\u011f\u0131\u201d y\u00f6n\u00fcndeki mesajlar\u0131, \u0130ngiltere\u2019de faizlerin daha uzun s\u00fcre y\u00fcksek kalaca\u011f\u0131 beklentisini peki\u015ftiriyor. Bu politika ayr\u0131\u015fmas\u0131, g\u00f6r\u00fc\u015f\u00fcm\u00fcz\u00fcn ana s\u00fctununu olu\u015fturuyor.<\/p>\n

\u0130\u015flem Stratejisi ve Kritik Seviyeler<\/h3>\n

Bu \u00e7er\u00e7evede, vadesi Temmuz sonu veya A\u011fustos 2026 olan EUR\/GBP sat\u0131m (put) opsiyonlar\u0131n\u0131n al\u0131nmas\u0131n\u0131 g\u00fcndeme almal\u0131y\u0131z. B\u00f6ylece \u00f6denen primle s\u0131n\u0131rl\u0131, tan\u0131ml\u0131 bir riskle daha fazla d\u00fc\u015f\u00fc\u015fe pozisyon al\u0131nabilir. 0,8550 civar\u0131ndaki bir kullan\u0131m fiyat\u0131, son diplerin a\u015fa\u011f\u0131 k\u0131r\u0131lmas\u0131n\u0131 hedefleyecektir.<\/p>\n

Bu i\u015flem, mevcut piyasa duyarl\u0131l\u0131\u011f\u0131yla da uyumlu. Son CFTC verileri, spek\u00fclatif yat\u0131r\u0131mc\u0131lar\u0131n sterlindeki net uzun pozisyonlar\u0131n\u0131 art\u0131rd\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 g\u00f6steriyor. Buna kar\u015f\u0131l\u0131k euroya y\u00f6nelik y\u00fckseli\u015f y\u00f6nl\u00fc pozisyonlar son bir ayda istikrarl\u0131 \u015fekilde azalt\u0131ld\u0131. Esasen burada para ak\u0131\u015f\u0131n\u0131 takip ediyoruz.<\/p>\n

\u0130zlenmesi gereken kritik seviye 0,8560 civar\u0131ndaki son dip. Bu seviyenin net bi\u00e7imde a\u015fa\u011f\u0131 k\u0131r\u0131lmas\u0131, 2025 yaz\u0131nda g\u00fc\u00e7l\u00fc destek olarak \u00e7al\u0131\u015fan 0,8500 seviyesinin \u00f6n\u00fcn\u00fc a\u00e7abilir. Ancak zay\u0131f Birle\u015fik Krall\u0131k PMI verileri g\u00f6z ard\u0131 edilmemeli; \u0130ngiltere ekonomisindeki olas\u0131 ek bozulma, BoE\u2019nin duru\u015funu yumu\u015fatmaya zorlayabilir.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Hemen i\u015flem yapmaya ba\u015flay\u0131n \u2014 ger\u00e7ek VT Markets hesab\u0131n\u0131z\u0131 olu\u015fturmak i\u00e7in buraya<\/a> t\u0131klay\u0131n.<\/b>\n\n<\/p>","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

EUR\/GBP bir y\u0131ll\u0131k dipten 0,8571\u2019de dengelenirken piyasalar euro zay\u0131fl\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 fiyatl\u0131yor. ECB\u2019de enflasyon d\u00fc\u015f\u00fc\u015f\u00fc s\u0131k\u0131la\u015fma beklentisini s\u00f6nd\u00fcrd\u00fc; BoE \u015fahin kald\u0131. Strateji: 0,8550 put, 0,8560 k\u0131r\u0131l\u0131rsa 0,8500.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":87,"featured_media":50045,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[71],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-50613","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-live-updates"],"acf":{"acf_article_selection_author":null},"aioseo_notices":[],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/50613","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/87"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=50613"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/50613\/revisions"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/50045"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=50613"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=50613"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=50613"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}