{"id":50611,"date":"2026-07-03T18:59:11","date_gmt":"2026-07-03T18:59:11","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/uncategorized\/mufg-fedin-faiz-artirimina-ara-vermesinin-dolari-baskilamasi-ve-ecbnin-sahin-durusunu-surdurmesiyle-eur-usdde-destegin-korundugunu-goruyor\/"},"modified":"2026-07-03T18:59:11","modified_gmt":"2026-07-03T18:59:11","slug":"mufg-fedin-faiz-artirimina-ara-vermesinin-dolari-baskilamasi-ve-ecbnin-sahin-durusunu-surdurmesiyle-eur-usdde-destegin-korundugunu-goruyor","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/live-updates\/mufg-fedin-faiz-artirimina-ara-vermesinin-dolari-baskilamasi-ve-ecbnin-sahin-durusunu-surdurmesiyle-eur-usdde-destegin-korundugunu-goruyor\/","title":{"rendered":"MUFG, Fed\u2019in faiz art\u0131r\u0131m\u0131na ara vermesinin dolar\u0131 bask\u0131lamas\u0131 ve ECB\u2019nin \u015fahin duru\u015funu s\u00fcrd\u00fcrmesiyle EUR\/USD\u2019de deste\u011fin korundu\u011funu g\u00f6r\u00fcyor"},"content":{"rendered":"

MUFG, ABD dolar\u0131n\u0131n zay\u0131flamas\u0131 ve Avrupa Merkez Bankas\u0131\u2019n\u0131n (ECB) \u015fahin duru\u015funu korumas\u0131 halinde EUR\/USD\u2019nin destek bulabilece\u011fini belirtti. Banka, ABD tahvil getirileri tar\u0131m d\u0131\u015f\u0131 istihdam raporu sonras\u0131 Fed\u2019in daha yumu\u015fak faiz beklentileriyle gerilerken, faiz e\u011frisinin h\u00e2l\u00e2 bir ek faiz art\u0131r\u0131m\u0131n\u0131 fiyatlad\u0131\u011f\u0131na dikkat \u00e7ekti. MUFG, euronun enflasyon g\u00f6r\u00fcn\u00fcm\u00fcn\u00fc enerji piyasalar\u0131na ba\u011flayarak, Avrupa\u2019da enflasyon risklerinin azald\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 ancak \u00e7at\u0131\u015fma \u00f6ncesine k\u0131yasla h\u00e2l\u00e2 daha y\u00fcksek seyretti\u011fini savundu.<\/p>\n

Brent petrol, \u00e7at\u0131\u015fma sonras\u0131 y\u00fckseli\u015fini tamamen geri verirken, LNG fiyatlar\u0131 \u00e7at\u0131\u015fma \u00f6ncesi seviyelerin h\u00e2l\u00e2 %40 \u00fczerinde bulunuyor. Bu durum, Euro B\u00f6lgesi\u2019nde enerji kaynakl\u0131 enflasyon risklerini g\u00fcndemde tutuyor. MUFG, ate\u015fkesin uzat\u0131lmas\u0131 ve H\u00fcrm\u00fcz Bo\u011faz\u0131\u2019n\u0131n yeniden a\u00e7\u0131lmas\u0131n\u0131n ard\u0131ndan enerji fiyatlar\u0131ndaki geri \u00e7ekilmeyi ECB\u2019nin yak\u0131ndan izleyece\u011fini \u00f6ng\u00f6r\u00fcyor; buna kar\u015f\u0131n, \u015fimdiye kadarki d\u00fc\u015f\u00fc\u015f\u00fcn enerji ba\u011flant\u0131l\u0131 enflasyon risklerini ortadan kald\u0131rmak i\u00e7in yetersiz oldu\u011fu de\u011ferlendirmesiyle bankan\u0131n bir faiz art\u0131r\u0131m\u0131na daha e\u011filimli kald\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 ifade ediyor.<\/p>\n

Fed\u2019de Duraklama ve Dolar Zay\u0131fl\u0131\u011f\u0131<\/h3>\n

Beklentilerin (180 bin) alt\u0131nda 155 bin olarak a\u00e7\u0131klanan son ABD tar\u0131m d\u0131\u015f\u0131 istihdam raporunu dolar zay\u0131fl\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131n temel s\u00fcr\u00fckleyicilerinden biri olarak g\u00f6r\u00fcyoruz. Bu tablo, Fed\u2019in s\u0131k\u0131la\u015ft\u0131rma d\u00f6ng\u00fcs\u00fcnde \u201cbekle-g\u00f6r\u201d moduna ge\u00e7ece\u011fi g\u00f6r\u00fc\u015f\u00fcn\u00fc g\u00fc\u00e7lendirirken ABD tahvil getirilerinde gerilemeye yol a\u00e7\u0131yor. Bu \u00e7er\u00e7evede t\u00fcrev piyasa yat\u0131r\u0131mc\u0131lar\u0131, \u00f6zellikle euro kar\u015f\u0131s\u0131nda dolar\u0131n d\u00fc\u015f\u00fc\u015f\u00fcnden fayda sa\u011flayan stratejileri de\u011ferlendirebilir.<\/p>\n

Euro B\u00f6lgesi Enflasyonu ve Politika Ayr\u0131\u015fmas\u0131<\/h3>\n

Euro B\u00f6lgesi\u2019nde enflasyon, zirvelerinden geri \u00e7ekilmesine ra\u011fmen endi\u015fe kayna\u011f\u0131 olmaya devam ediyor. Uyumlula\u015ft\u0131r\u0131lm\u0131\u015f T\u00fcketici Fiyat Endeksi\u2019nin (HICP) son verisi %2,8 ile ECB\u2019nin %2 hedefinin belirgin \u00fczerinde kal\u0131yor. Bu kal\u0131c\u0131l\u0131k, ECB\u2019yi bir ek faiz art\u0131r\u0131m\u0131na daha a\u00e7\u0131k tutuyor.<\/p>\n

Ba\u015fl\u0131ca enflasyon riski enerji cephesinden, \u00f6zellikle de S\u0131v\u0131la\u015ft\u0131r\u0131lm\u0131\u015f Do\u011fal Gaz (LNG) fiyatlar\u0131ndan geliyor. Ham petrol istikrar kazanm\u0131\u015f olsa da, Avrupa TTF do\u011falgaz vadeli kontratlar\u0131 megavat-saat ba\u015f\u0131na 35 euro civar\u0131nda tutunuyor; bu seviye 2022 \u00f6ncesine k\u0131yasla belirgin \u015fekilde y\u00fcksek. Bunun ECB taraf\u0131ndan yak\u0131ndan izlendi\u011fini d\u00fc\u015f\u00fcn\u00fcyoruz; zira bu risk, Banka\u2019n\u0131n tam anlam\u0131yla g\u00fcvercin bir duru\u015fa d\u00f6nmesini engelleyen s\u00fcregelen bir tehdit olu\u015fturuyor.<\/p>\n

Fed\u2019in duraklamaya ge\u00e7ti\u011fi, ECB\u2019nin ise \u015fahin kald\u0131\u011f\u0131 bu politika ayr\u0131\u015fmas\u0131, h\u00e2lihaz\u0131rda 1,1050 seviyesini test eden EUR\/USD i\u00e7in destekleyici bir zemin yarat\u0131yor. Paritede olas\u0131 yukar\u0131 y\u00f6nl\u00fc hareketten faydalanmak amac\u0131yla opsiyon piyasas\u0131nda euro al\u0131m (call) opsiyonlar\u0131na y\u00f6nelimin veya bo\u011fa al\u0131m spread\u2019lerinin (bull call spread) \u00f6ne \u00e7\u0131kabilece\u011fini \u00f6ng\u00f6r\u00fcyoruz. Bu pozisyonlanma, k\u0131sa vadede euro lehine geni\u015fleyen faiz fark\u0131na ili\u015fkin artan ilgiyi yans\u0131t\u0131yor.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Hemen i\u015flem yapmaya ba\u015flay\u0131n \u2014 ger\u00e7ek VT Markets hesab\u0131n\u0131z\u0131 olu\u015fturmak i\u00e7in buraya<\/a> t\u0131klay\u0131n.<\/b>\n\n<\/p>","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

Dolar zay\u0131flarken, ECB \u015fahin kal\u0131rsa EUR\/USD destek bulabilir: Fed NFP sonras\u0131 \u201cbekle-g\u00f6r\u201d, getiriler d\u00fc\u015f\u00fcyor. Enerji\/LNG kaynakl\u0131 enflasyon riski s\u00fcr\u00fcyor; parite 1,1050\u2019yi test ediyor.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":87,"featured_media":49971,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[71],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-50611","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-live-updates"],"acf":{"acf_article_selection_author":null},"aioseo_notices":[],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/50611","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/87"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=50611"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/50611\/revisions"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/49971"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=50611"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=50611"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=50611"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}