{"id":50606,"date":"2026-07-03T17:00:34","date_gmt":"2026-07-03T17:00:34","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/uncategorized\/zayif-abd-istihdam-verileri-fedin-faiz-artirimi-beklentilerini-zayiflatirken-eur-usd-yukselise-geciyor-11500-direnci-izleniyor\/"},"modified":"2026-07-03T17:00:34","modified_gmt":"2026-07-03T17:00:34","slug":"zayif-abd-istihdam-verileri-fedin-faiz-artirimi-beklentilerini-zayiflatirken-eur-usd-yukselise-geciyor-11500-direnci-izleniyor","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/live-updates\/zayif-abd-istihdam-verileri-fedin-faiz-artirimi-beklentilerini-zayiflatirken-eur-usd-yukselise-geciyor-11500-direnci-izleniyor\/","title":{"rendered":"Zay\u0131f ABD istihdam verileri Fed\u2019in faiz art\u0131r\u0131m\u0131 beklentilerini zay\u0131flat\u0131rken EUR\/USD y\u00fckseli\u015fe ge\u00e7iyor; 1,1500 direnci izleniyor"},"content":{"rendered":"

EUR\/USD, Cuma g\u00fcn\u00fc ikinci g\u00fcn \u00fcst \u00fcste y\u00fckseldi ancak ABD Dolar\u0131\u2019n\u0131n, zay\u0131f ABD istihdam verilerinin yak\u0131n vadede Federal Rezerv\u2019in (Fed) s\u0131k\u0131la\u015fma beklentilerini azaltmas\u0131n\u0131n ard\u0131ndan geri \u00e7ekilmesine ra\u011fmen 1,1475 seviyesini a\u015fmay\u0131 yine ba\u015faramad\u0131. Haziran tar\u0131m d\u0131\u015f\u0131 istihdam 57 bin net yeni istihdam g\u00f6sterdi; piyasa beklentisi 110 bin d\u00fczeyindeydi. May\u0131s verisi ise 172 binden 129 bine a\u015fa\u011f\u0131 revize edildi. Parite 1,1455 civar\u0131nda i\u015flem g\u00f6r\u00fcrken, fiyat hareketi 1,1475\u20131,1500 band\u0131n\u0131n alt\u0131nda kald\u0131\u011f\u0131 s\u00fcrece k\u0131sa vadeli e\u011filimini g\u00fc\u00e7l\u00fc korudu.<\/p>\n

Euro B\u00f6lgesi verileri de ek destek sa\u011flad\u0131: Nihai Haziran HCOB Hizmet PMI 48,9\u2019dan 49,4\u2019e yukar\u0131 revize edildi ve Bile\u015fik PMI 49,5\u2019ten 50\u2019ye y\u00fckseldi. Teknik tarafta RSI (14) d\u00fc\u015f\u00fck 60\u2019larda seyrederken MACD s\u0131n\u0131rl\u0131 pozitifti; bununla birlikte 1,1500 civar\u0131nda, eski Haziran dipleri ile %38,2 Fibonacci d\u00fczeltmesinin kesi\u015fti\u011fi b\u00f6lgede diren\u00e7 \u00f6ne \u00e7\u0131kt\u0131. Yukar\u0131 k\u0131r\u0131lmada 1,1620 g\u00fcndeme gelebilir. Destekler 1,1360 ve ard\u0131ndan 1,1333 seviyelerinde; a\u015fa\u011f\u0131da ise 1,1210 bulunuyor.<\/p>\n

ABD \u0130stihdam Raporu ve De\u011fi\u015fen Politika Beklentileri<\/h3>\n

Son ABD istihdam raporunu, Fed\u2019in yak\u0131n vadede faiz art\u0131raca\u011f\u0131na y\u00f6nelik beklentileri temelden so\u011futan kritik bir d\u00f6neme\u00e7 olarak g\u00f6r\u00fcyoruz. Beklentilerin belirgin alt\u0131nda kalan 57 binlik istihdam art\u0131\u015f\u0131 dolar\u0131 zay\u0131flatt\u0131 ve euroya net, ancak s\u0131n\u0131rl\u0131 bir hareket alan\u0131 a\u00e7t\u0131. Bu tablo, EUR\/USD\u2019de mevcut ko\u015fullarda en d\u00fc\u015f\u00fck diren\u00e7li y\u00f6n\u00fcn \u015fimdilik yukar\u0131 oldu\u011fu g\u00f6r\u00fc\u015f\u00fcm\u00fcz\u00fc peki\u015ftiriyor.<\/p>\n

Piyasa fiyatlamas\u0131na bak\u0131ld\u0131\u011f\u0131nda, CME FedWatch Tool\u2019a g\u00f6re bir sonraki FOMC toplant\u0131s\u0131nda faiz art\u0131\u015f\u0131 olas\u0131l\u0131\u011f\u0131 ge\u00e7en hafta %70\u2019in \u00fczerindeyken \u015fimdi %40\u2019\u0131n alt\u0131na gerilemi\u015f durumda. Bu politika de\u011fi\u015fimi, Avrupa Merkez Bankas\u0131 (ECB) taraf\u0131nda son d\u00f6nemdeki a\u00e7\u0131klamalar\u0131n enflasyona odaklanman\u0131n s\u00fcrd\u00fc\u011f\u00fcne i\u015faret etmesiyle tezat olu\u015fturuyor. Bu artan politika ayr\u0131\u015fmas\u0131, euroya dolar kar\u015f\u0131s\u0131nda destekleyici bir r\u00fczg\u00e2r sa\u011flayabilir.<\/p>\n

Taktik \u0130\u015flem Yakla\u015f\u0131mlar\u0131 ve Kritik Seviyeler<\/h3>\n

1,1500 seviyesi \u00e7evresinde belirgin bir teknik diren\u00e7 beklendi\u011finden, basit uzun pozisyonlarla agresif bir k\u0131r\u0131lmay\u0131 kovalam\u0131yoruz. Il\u0131ml\u0131 ancak s\u0131n\u0131rl\u0131 bir y\u00fckseli\u015ften faydalanan t\u00fcrev stratejilerini tercih ediyoruz; \u00f6rne\u011fin bull call spread al\u0131m\u0131. \u00d6rnek olarak, 1,1450 kullan\u0131m fiyatl\u0131 call al\u0131p 1,1500 kullan\u0131m fiyatl\u0131 call satmak, parite kademeli y\u00fckselir ancak burada tak\u0131l\u0131rsa tan\u0131ml\u0131 riskle getiri sa\u011flama imk\u00e2n\u0131 sunar.<\/p>\n

Zay\u0131f istihdam verisi yak\u0131n vadeli belirsizli\u011fin bir k\u0131sm\u0131n\u0131 ortadan kald\u0131rd\u0131; bu da \u00f6n\u00fcm\u00fczdeki haftalarda EUR\/USD opsiyonlar\u0131nda ima edilen volatilitenin d\u00fc\u015fmesine yol a\u00e7abilir. Bu durum prim satmay\u0131 cazip k\u0131l\u0131yor; bu nedenle 1,1360 destek seviyesinin alt\u0131nda kullan\u0131m fiyatlar\u0131na sahip, vade d\u0131\u015f\u0131 (out-of-the-money) put opsiyonlar\u0131n\u0131n sat\u0131\u015f\u0131 se\u00e7ene\u011fini de de\u011ferlendiriyoruz. Bu strateji hem zaman erimesinden hem de paritenin yatay kalmas\u0131 ya da y\u00fckselmesinden faydalan\u0131r.<\/p>\n

Tarihsel olarak, beklentiden sapman\u0131n konsens\u00fcs tahmininin %40\u2019\u0131n\u0131 a\u015ft\u0131\u011f\u0131 benzer derecede zay\u0131f TD\u0130 (NFP) raporlar\u0131n\u0131n ard\u0131ndan ABD Dolar\u0131 genellikle takip eden iki ila d\u00f6rt haftada zay\u0131f performans sergilemi\u015ftir. 1,1475\u20131,1500 band\u0131n\u0131 ana karar b\u00f6lgesi olarak izleyece\u011fiz. Bu alan\u0131n a\u015f\u0131lamamas\u0131, mevcut y\u00fckseli\u015f y\u00f6nl\u00fc pozisyonlarda risk azaltma\/koruma ad\u0131mlar\u0131n\u0131 tetikleyebilir.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Hemen i\u015flem yapmaya ba\u015flay\u0131n \u2014 ger\u00e7ek VT Markets hesab\u0131n\u0131z\u0131 olu\u015fturmak i\u00e7in buraya<\/a> t\u0131klay\u0131n.<\/b>\n\n<\/p>","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

\u015eok NFP dolar\u0131 sarst\u0131: EUR\/USD iki g\u00fcnd\u00fcr y\u00fckselse de 1,1475\u2019i a\u015famad\u0131. Fed faiz art\u0131\u015f\u0131 olas\u0131l\u0131\u011f\u0131 %40 alt\u0131na indi. 1,1500 kritik diren\u00e7; k\u0131r\u0131l\u0131rsa 1,1620, destek 1,1360\/1,1333.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":87,"featured_media":50005,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[71],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-50606","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-live-updates"],"acf":{"acf_article_selection_author":null},"aioseo_notices":[],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/50606","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/87"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=50606"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/50606\/revisions"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/50005"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=50606"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=50606"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=50606"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}