USD\/JPY beklenmedik \u015fekilde 160,62\u2019ye gerileyerek daha \u00f6nce belirtilen 161,80 destek seviyesinin alt\u0131na sarkt\u0131, ard\u0131ndan toparlan\u0131p g\u00fcn\u00fc 161,09\u2019dan %0,90 d\u00fc\u015f\u00fc\u015fle kapatt\u0131. Sert hareket, k\u0131sa vadeli g\u00f6r\u00fcn\u00fcm\u00fc zay\u0131fl\u0131\u011fa \u00e7evirdi; ancak derin a\u015f\u0131r\u0131 sat\u0131m ko\u015fullar\u0131 d\u00fczeltme ama\u00e7l\u0131 bir tepki y\u00fckseli\u015fine i\u015faret ediyor. 24 saatlik perspektifte paritenin tepki verdi\u011fi ancak 160,80\u2013161,90 band\u0131 i\u00e7inde s\u0131n\u0131rl\u0131 kald\u0131\u011f\u0131 g\u00f6r\u00fcl\u00fcyor.<\/p>\n
Bir ila \u00fc\u00e7 haftal\u0131k ufukta a\u015fa\u011f\u0131 y\u00f6nl\u00fc risk ko\u015fullu olmaya devam ediyor. USD\/JPY\u2019nin 160,00\u2019a do\u011fru hareketinin ancak 160,60\u2019\u0131n alt\u0131nda bir kapan\u0131\u015f sa\u011flamas\u0131 halinde beklenmesi \u00f6ng\u00f6r\u00fcl\u00fcyor; 162,45 direnci a\u015f\u0131lmad\u0131\u011f\u0131 s\u00fcrece bu senaryonun olas\u0131l\u0131\u011f\u0131 korunuyor. 1 Temmuz tarihli \u00f6nceki de\u011ferlendirmede spot 162,60 seviyesinde izlenmi\u015f, bir sonraki yukar\u0131 seviye 163,00 olarak i\u015faretlenmi\u015fti; parite sonras\u0131nda 162,83\u2019e ula\u015f\u0131p a\u015fa\u011f\u0131 y\u00f6nl\u00fc d\u00f6nm\u00fc\u015ft\u00fc.<\/p>\n
USD\/JPY\u2019nin son d\u00f6nemde 161,00\u2019in alt\u0131na sert d\u00fc\u015fmesini piyasa dinamiklerinde belirgin bir de\u011fi\u015fim olarak g\u00f6r\u00fcyoruz. Parite derin a\u015f\u0131r\u0131 sat\u0131m b\u00f6lgesinde oldu\u011fundan, \u00f6n\u00fcm\u00fczdeki g\u00fcnlerde 161,90 b\u00f6lgesine do\u011fru k\u0131sa s\u00fcreli bir toparlanma bekliyoruz. Bu tepkiyi yeni d\u00fc\u015f\u00fc\u015f trendinin tersine d\u00f6nmesi olarak de\u011fil, yenin g\u00fc\u00e7lenmesinin devam\u0131na y\u00f6nelik pozisyon almak i\u00e7in bir f\u0131rsat olarak de\u011ferlendirmek gerekir.<\/p>\n
Ani d\u00fc\u015f\u00fc\u015f\u00fcn b\u00fcy\u00fck olas\u0131l\u0131kla Japon otoritelerinin daha \u00f6nce de ba\u015fvurdu\u011fu \u201c\u00f6rt\u00fcl\u00fc m\u00fcdahale\u201d ile tetiklendi\u011fi d\u00fc\u015f\u00fcn\u00fcl\u00fcyor. Bu risk art\u0131k daha inand\u0131r\u0131c\u0131; zira Japonya\u2019n\u0131n \u00fcst d\u00fczey kur yetkilisi Masato Kanda, sadece ge\u00e7en hafta spek\u00fclatif hareketlere kar\u015f\u0131 uyar\u0131da bulundu. Piyasa, 2022\u2019nin sonlar\u0131nda m\u00fcdahaleye 9 trilyon yenin (56 milyar dolar) \u00fczerinde kaynak ayr\u0131ld\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 hat\u0131rl\u0131yor ve yat\u0131r\u0131mc\u0131lar olas\u0131 bir tekrar i\u00e7in teyakkuzda.<\/p>\n
Bu d\u00f6n\u00fc\u015f, a\u015f\u0131r\u0131 piyasa pozisyonlanmas\u0131 nedeniyle daha da b\u00fcy\u00fcd\u00fc. Son CFTC verileri, d\u00fc\u015f\u00fc\u015f \u00f6ncesinde yen aleyhine spek\u00fclatif net k\u0131sa pozisyonlar\u0131n rekor seviyelere yak\u0131n seyretti\u011fini g\u00f6sterdi. Bu kadar kalabal\u0131k i\u015flemler sert \u00e7\u00f6z\u00fclmelere son derece a\u00e7\u0131k; muhtemelen \u015fimdi g\u00f6rd\u00fc\u011f\u00fcm\u00fcz de bu. Yen kaynakl\u0131 bu k\u0131sa pozisyon kapama rallisinin devam edecek alan\u0131 oldu\u011funa inan\u0131yoruz.<\/p>\n
Temel dinamikler de USD\/JPY\u2019de zay\u0131fl\u0131k y\u00f6n\u00fcnde hizalanmaya ba\u015fl\u0131yor. Son ABD Tar\u0131m D\u0131\u015f\u0131 \u0130stihdam verisi 175 bin ile beklentilerin bir miktar alt\u0131nda kald\u0131 ve i\u015fg\u00fcc\u00fc piyasas\u0131nda so\u011fumaya i\u015faret etti. Ayn\u0131 zamanda Tokyo \u00e7ekirdek T\u00dcFE\u2019nin son d\u00f6nemde %2,3\u2019e y\u00fckselmesi, Japonya Merkez Bankas\u0131 \u00fczerinde politikay\u0131 normalle\u015ftirme y\u00f6n\u00fcnde s\u0131n\u0131rl\u0131 da olsa bask\u0131y\u0131 canl\u0131 tutuyor.<\/p>\n
T\u00fcrev piyasas\u0131 yat\u0131r\u0131mc\u0131lar\u0131 a\u00e7\u0131s\u0131ndan bu ortam, d\u00fc\u015f\u00fc\u015ften ve y\u00fcksek oynakl\u0131ktan faydalanan stratejileri \u00f6ne \u00e7\u0131kar\u0131yor. Y\u00fcksek prim toplamak i\u00e7in 162,45\u2019teki g\u00fc\u00e7l\u00fc diren\u00e7 seviyesinin \u00fczerinde k\u0131sa kullan\u0131m fiyat\u0131 bulunan \u201cout-of-the-money\u201d call spread sat\u0131m\u0131nda de\u011fer g\u00f6r\u00fcyoruz. Paritenin 160,60 deste\u011finin alt\u0131nda g\u00fcnl\u00fck kapan\u0131\u015f yapmas\u0131 halinde ise 160,00 psikolojik seviyesini hedefleyen put al\u0131m\u0131n\u0131 de\u011ferlendirebiliriz.<\/p>\n\n\n\n