{"id":50574,"date":"2026-07-03T08:59:34","date_gmt":"2026-07-03T08:59:34","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/uncategorized\/zayif-abd-istihdam-verileri-fedin-faiz-artirimi-olasiligini-dusururken-dolar-geriledi-hisse-senetleri-ve-altin-yukseldi\/"},"modified":"2026-07-03T08:59:34","modified_gmt":"2026-07-03T08:59:34","slug":"zayif-abd-istihdam-verileri-fedin-faiz-artirimi-olasiligini-dusururken-dolar-geriledi-hisse-senetleri-ve-altin-yukseldi","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/live-updates\/zayif-abd-istihdam-verileri-fedin-faiz-artirimi-olasiligini-dusururken-dolar-geriledi-hisse-senetleri-ve-altin-yukseldi\/","title":{"rendered":"Zay\u0131f ABD istihdam verileri Fed\u2019in faiz art\u0131r\u0131m\u0131 olas\u0131l\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 d\u00fc\u015f\u00fcr\u00fcrken dolar geriledi; hisse senetleri ve alt\u0131n y\u00fckseldi"},"content":{"rendered":"

ABD dolar\u0131, Haziran ay\u0131 istihdam verilerinin hayal k\u0131r\u0131kl\u0131\u011f\u0131 yaratmas\u0131n\u0131n ard\u0131ndan piyasalar\u0131n Fed\u2019in faiz art\u0131r\u0131m\u0131 olas\u0131l\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 yeniden fiyatlamas\u0131yla Cuma g\u00fcn\u00fcne do\u011fru zay\u0131flad\u0131. ABD hisse senedi ve tahvil piyasalar\u0131 Ba\u011f\u0131ms\u0131zl\u0131k G\u00fcn\u00fc tatili nedeniyle kapal\u0131yken ve veri takvimi sakinken, tar\u0131m d\u0131\u015f\u0131 istihdam (Nonfarm Payrolls) 110 binlik beklentiye kar\u015f\u0131 57 bin artt\u0131. Ayr\u0131ca \u00f6nceki ay verileri a\u015fa\u011f\u0131 revize edildi: Nisan 31 bin, May\u0131s 43 bin; b\u00f6ylece iki ay toplam\u0131 \u00f6nceki tahminlerin 74 bin alt\u0131na indi. \u0130\u015fsizlik oran\u0131 %4,3\u2019ten %4,2\u2019ye gerilerken, i\u015fg\u00fcc\u00fcne kat\u0131l\u0131m oran\u0131 %61,8\u2019den %61,5\u2019e d\u00fc\u015ft\u00fc. Dolar endeksi (DXY) iki haftan\u0131n en d\u00fc\u015f\u00fck seviyesi olan 100,50 civar\u0131na geriledikten sonra dengelendi; Cuma sabah\u0131 erken saatlerde yakla\u015f\u0131k 100,60 seviyesinde %0,2\u2019den fazla eksideydi. CME FedWatch, Temmuz\u2019da 25 baz puanl\u0131k art\u0131\u015f olas\u0131l\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 daha \u00f6nce yakla\u015f\u0131k %30 iken %17 olarak g\u00f6sterdi.<\/p>\n

Asya hisseleri, s\u0131k\u0131la\u015fma bahislerinin azalmas\u0131yla y\u00fckseldi; G\u00fcney Kore KOSPI %6 artarken Japonya Nikkei 225 ve Hong Kong Hang Seng %1\u2019in \u00fczerinde y\u00fckseldi. USD\/JPY Per\u015fembe g\u00fcn\u00fc yakla\u015f\u0131k %1 geriledi ve Cuma erken saatlerde 160,75 seviyesinde yakla\u015f\u0131k %0,25 d\u00fc\u015f\u00fc\u015fle i\u015flem g\u00f6rd\u00fc; Japonya\u2019da yetkililer kur hareketlerine yan\u0131t vermeye haz\u0131r olduklar\u0131n\u0131 belirtti. EUR\/USD %0,5 y\u00fckselerek 1,1450\u2019nin \u00fczerine \u00e7\u0131kt\u0131; GBP\/USD 1,3350\u2019nin \u00fczerinde tutunurken haftay\u0131 %1\u2019in \u00fczerinde kazan\u00e7la kapatmaya haz\u0131rlan\u0131yordu. Alt\u0131n Per\u015fembe g\u00fcn\u00fc %1\u2019in \u00fczerinde y\u00fckselerek 4.200 dolara do\u011fru t\u0131rmand\u0131; b\u00f6ylece haftal\u0131k kazanc\u0131 yakla\u015f\u0131k %2\u2019ye ula\u015ft\u0131 ve d\u00f6rt haftal\u0131k d\u00fc\u015f\u00fc\u015f serisini sonland\u0131rma yolunda ilerledi.<\/p>\n

Tar\u0131m D\u0131\u015f\u0131 \u0130stihdam Raporunun Piyasalar ve Politika A\u00e7\u0131s\u0131ndan Sonu\u00e7lar\u0131<\/h3>\n

3 Temmuz 2026 itibar\u0131yla piyasan\u0131n tepkisine bak\u0131ld\u0131\u011f\u0131nda, son Tar\u0131m D\u0131\u015f\u0131 \u0130stihdam raporu \u00f6nemli bir oyun de\u011fi\u015ftirici niteli\u011finde. Raporun zay\u0131fl\u0131\u011f\u0131, bu ay Fed\u2019in faiz art\u0131rma ihtimalini sert bi\u00e7imde d\u00fc\u015f\u00fcrd\u00fc; CME FedWatch Tool\u2019daki olas\u0131l\u0131klar yakla\u015f\u0131k %30\u2019dan yaln\u0131zca %17\u2019ye indi. Para politikas\u0131 beklentisindeki bu kayma, i\u015flem kararlar\u0131m\u0131za y\u00f6n vermesi gereken ana temad\u0131r.<\/p>\n

T\u00fcrev piyasas\u0131 \u00fczerinden buna uygun \u015fekilde pozisyon alarak ABD dolar\u0131ndaki zay\u0131fl\u0131\u011f\u0131n s\u00fcrmesini bekliyoruz. S\u0131n\u0131rl\u0131 riskle yukar\u0131 y\u00f6nl\u00fc maruziyet elde etmek i\u00e7in EUR\/USD ve GBP\/USD gibi paritelerde al\u0131m (call) opsiyonlar\u0131 almay\u0131 planl\u0131yoruz. Ayn\u0131 zamanda, Dolar Endeksi (DXY) vadeli i\u015flem kontratlar\u0131nda sat\u0131\u015f yapmak, 100,60 seviyesi \u00e7evresinde zorlanan dolar\u0131 do\u011frudan shortlaman\u0131n bir yoludur.<\/p>\n

Hisselerde \u201ck\u00f6t\u00fc haber iyi haberdir\u201d alg\u0131s\u0131, k\u0131sa vadede risk varl\u0131klar\u0131 i\u00e7in destekleyici bir zemin anlam\u0131na geliyor. Bunu, S&P 500 gibi ana endekslerde vade d\u0131\u015f\u0131 (out-of-the-money) put kredi spread\u2019leri satarak de\u011ferlendirme f\u0131rsat\u0131 olarak g\u00f6r\u00fcyoruz. Bu strateji, yak\u0131n vadeli faiz art\u0131\u015f\u0131 tehdidi azald\u0131\u011f\u0131 i\u00e7in piyasan\u0131n yatay kalaca\u011f\u0131 ya da yukar\u0131 e\u011filim g\u00f6sterece\u011fi beklentisiyle prim toplamay\u0131 sa\u011flar.<\/p>\n

\u0130\u015fg\u00fcc\u00fcne Kat\u0131l\u0131m, Hisse Senedi G\u00f6r\u00fcn\u00fcm\u00fc ve Alt\u0131nda F\u0131rsat<\/h3>\n

\u0130stihdam raporunun ayr\u0131nt\u0131lar\u0131, kat\u0131l\u0131m oran\u0131n\u0131n %61,5\u2019e gerilemesiyle \u00f6zellikle dikkat \u00e7ekici. Kat\u0131l\u0131m oran\u0131ndaki d\u00fc\u015f\u00fc\u015f, man\u015fet i\u015fsizlik oran\u0131 gerilese bile Fed\u2019in g\u00f6z ard\u0131 etmedi\u011fi, tarihsel olarak g\u00fc\u00e7l\u00fc bir i\u015fg\u00fcc\u00fc piyasas\u0131 zay\u0131fl\u0131\u011f\u0131 sinyalidir. 2008 sonras\u0131 toparlanma gibi ge\u00e7mi\u015f d\u00f6ng\u00fclerde, kat\u0131l\u0131m oran\u0131nda kal\u0131c\u0131 iyile\u015fme g\u00f6r\u00fclene kadar Fed\u2019in destekleyici (g\u00fcvercin) duru\u015funu s\u00fcrd\u00fcrd\u00fc\u011f\u00fcne tan\u0131k olduk.<\/p>\n

Alt\u0131n, daha d\u00fc\u015f\u00fck faiz olas\u0131l\u0131\u011f\u0131 ve zay\u0131f dolar beklentisine tam da \u00f6ng\u00f6r\u00fcld\u00fc\u011f\u00fc gibi tepki vererek ons ba\u015f\u0131na 4.200 dolara do\u011fru ilerliyor. Bu rallinin devam edecek alan\u0131 oldu\u011funu d\u00fc\u015f\u00fcn\u00fcyor ve alt\u0131n vadeli i\u015flemlerinde (GC) al\u0131m (call) opsiyonlar\u0131 sat\u0131n alarak pozisyon al\u0131yoruz. Metal, \u00e7ok haftal\u0131 kay\u0131p serisini k\u0131r\u0131yor; bu temel de\u011fi\u015fim, y\u00fckseli\u015fin s\u00fcrmesi i\u00e7in g\u00fc\u00e7l\u00fc bir momentum sa\u011fl\u0131yor.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Hemen i\u015flem yapmaya ba\u015flay\u0131n \u2014 ger\u00e7ek VT Markets hesab\u0131n\u0131z\u0131 olu\u015fturmak i\u00e7in buraya<\/a> t\u0131klay\u0131n.<\/b>\n\n<\/p>","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

\u015eok istihdam verisi dolar\u0131 sarst\u0131: NFP 57 bin, revizyonlar eklendi, Fed\u2019in Temmuz art\u0131\u015f\u0131 %30\u2019dan %17\u2019ye indi. DXY 100,60\u2019a gerilerken Asya borsalar\u0131 y\u00fckseldi, alt\u0131n 4.200 dolara yakla\u015ft\u0131.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":87,"featured_media":49977,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[71],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-50574","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-live-updates"],"acf":{"acf_article_selection_author":null},"aioseo_notices":[],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/50574","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/87"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=50574"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/50574\/revisions"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/49977"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=50574"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=50574"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=50574"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}