AUD\/USD, Asya\u2019da 0,6910 civar\u0131na k\u0131sa s\u00fcreli gerilemenin ard\u0131ndan, yeniden canlanan ABD Dolar\u0131 sat\u0131\u015flar\u0131n\u0131n deste\u011fiyle ikinci seansta da y\u00fckseli\u015fini s\u00fcrd\u00fcrd\u00fc. Parite, RatingDog \u00c7in Hizmetler PMI verisi sonras\u0131 0,6930 yak\u0131n\u0131nda i\u015flem g\u00f6r\u00fcrken, \u00c7ar\u015famba g\u00fcn\u00fc kaydedilen bir bu\u00e7uk haftaya yak\u0131n zirvenin hemen alt\u0131nda seyretti. \u00c7in\u2019in hizmetler g\u00f6stergesi haziranda 54,4\u2019ten 54,1\u2019e gerilese de, h\u00e2l\u00e2 geni\u015flemeye i\u015faret ederek Avustralya ba\u011flant\u0131l\u0131 para birimine destek sundu. Bu arada Dolar, ABD Merkez Bankas\u0131\u2019n\u0131n (Fed) ilave s\u0131k\u0131la\u015fma beklentilerinin zay\u0131flamas\u0131yla iki haftan\u0131n en d\u00fc\u015f\u00fck seviyelerine yak\u0131n seyretti.<\/p>\n\n
ABD i\u015fg\u00fcc\u00fc verileri bu de\u011fi\u015fimi peki\u015ftirdi. Tar\u0131m d\u0131\u015f\u0131 istihdam, haziranda 110 bin beklentisine kar\u015f\u0131l\u0131k 57 bin art\u0131\u015f g\u00f6sterirken, may\u0131s verisi 172 binden 129 bine a\u015fa\u011f\u0131 y\u00f6nl\u00fc revize edildi; i\u015fsizlik oran\u0131 ise buna ra\u011fmen %4,2\u2019ye geriledi. Piyasa fiyatlamas\u0131 2026\u2019da bir-iki Fed faiz art\u0131\u015f\u0131ndan, s\u0131f\u0131r ile bir art\u0131\u015f aral\u0131\u011f\u0131na kayd\u0131. Jeopolitik riskler ve ABD\u2019de tatil kaynakl\u0131 d\u00fc\u015f\u00fck likidite, hareketin devam\u0131n\u0131 s\u0131n\u0131rlarken; ABD\u2019nin \u0130ran\u2019\u0131n m\u00fczakerecilerine y\u00f6nelik tehditlere dair endi\u015feleri ve Tahran\u2019\u0131n H\u00fcrm\u00fcz Bo\u011faz\u0131\u2019nda ABD\u2019nin herhangi bir ad\u0131m\u0131na \u201ckararl\u0131 ve h\u0131zl\u0131 bir yan\u0131t\u201d uyar\u0131s\u0131 \u00f6ne \u00e7\u0131kt\u0131.<\/p>\n\n
Geli\u015fen tabloya dayanarak, AUD\/USD\u2019deki son g\u00fc\u00e7lenmeyi bir f\u0131rsat olarak g\u00f6r\u00fcyoruz. Zay\u0131f haziran istihdam raporunun ard\u0131ndan piyasada Fed\u2019in faiz art\u0131r\u0131m\u0131 beklentilerinin h\u0131zla s\u00f6nmesi, ABD Dolar\u0131\u2019n\u0131 zay\u0131flat\u0131yor. CME FedWatch Tool, eyl\u00fcle kadar faiz art\u0131\u015f\u0131 olas\u0131l\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131n %35\u2019in alt\u0131na indi\u011fini g\u00f6steriyor; bu oran ge\u00e7en ay %70\u2019in \u00fczerindeydi.<\/p>\n\n
Bu d\u00f6n\u00fc\u015f\u00fcm, daha geni\u015f \u00e7apta ABD ekonomisinde so\u011fumaya i\u015faret eden sinyallerle destekleniyor ve bizim de\u011ferlendirmemize g\u00f6re dolar \u00fczerinde bask\u0131 yaratmay\u0131 s\u00fcrd\u00fcrecek. \u00d6rne\u011fin, haftal\u0131k i\u015fsizlik maa\u015f\u0131 ba\u015fvurular\u0131 son d\u00f6nemde yukar\u0131 y\u00f6nl\u00fc bir e\u011filim g\u00f6stererek ge\u00e7en hafta 245 bine ula\u015ft\u0131; bu da i\u015fg\u00fcc\u00fc piyasas\u0131nda yumu\u015fama anlat\u0131s\u0131n\u0131 g\u00fc\u00e7lendiriyor. Buna kar\u015f\u0131l\u0131k, \u00c7in\u2019in sanayi \u00fcretiminin beklentileri a\u015fmas\u0131, Avustralya Dolar\u0131 i\u00e7in ek bir destek unsuru sa\u011fl\u0131yor.<\/p>\n\n
Bununla birlikte, g\u00fcvenli liman talebini tetikleyerek ABD Dolar\u0131\u2019n\u0131 g\u00fc\u00e7lendirebilecek ciddi jeopolitik riskler nedeniyle temkinli kalmal\u0131y\u0131z. H\u00fcrm\u00fcz Bo\u011faz\u0131\u2019ndaki gerilimler Brent petrol\u00fc varil fiyat\u0131n\u0131 88 dolar\u0131n \u00fczerine ta\u015f\u0131m\u0131\u015f durumda ve olas\u0131 bir t\u0131rmanma, d\u00f6viz piyasalar\u0131ndaki mevcut e\u011filimi h\u0131zla tersine \u00e7evirebilir. Bu belirsizlik, AUD\/USD\u2019de y\u00fckseli\u015fin 0,7050 diren\u00e7 b\u00f6lgesi yak\u0131n\u0131nda s\u0131n\u0131rlanabilece\u011fine i\u015faret ediyor; buras\u0131 y\u0131l\u0131n ba\u015f\u0131ndan \u00f6ne \u00e7\u0131kan kritik bir teknik seviye.<\/p>\n\n
Bu \u00e7eli\u015fkili sinyaller \u0131\u015f\u0131\u011f\u0131nda, yukar\u0131 y\u00f6nl\u00fc potansiyel sunarken riski s\u0131n\u0131rlayan stratejilere odaklan\u0131yoruz. Temmuz sonu veya a\u011fustos vadeli, kullan\u0131m fiyat\u0131 0,7000 civar\u0131nda olan AUD\/USD al\u0131m (call) opsiyonlar\u0131n\u0131n sat\u0131n al\u0131nmas\u0131 temkinli bir yakla\u015f\u0131m olarak \u00f6ne \u00e7\u0131k\u0131yor. Bu sayede paritenin toparlanmay\u0131 s\u00fcrd\u00fcrmesi halinde kazan\u00e7 potansiyeli korunurken, jeopolitik geli\u015fmelerin ters y\u00f6nl\u00fc bir hareket yaratmas\u0131 durumunda azami zarar \u00f6denen primle s\u0131n\u0131rland\u0131r\u0131lm\u0131\u015f olur.<\/p>\n\n\n\n