\u00c7in\u2019in RatingDog Services PMI verisi Haziran ay\u0131nda May\u0131s\u2019taki 54,4 seviyesinden 54,1\u2019e geriledi. Buna kar\u015f\u0131n endeks, 0\u2013100 \u00f6l\u00e7e\u011finde 50,0 e\u015fi\u011finin \u00fczerinde kalarak g\u00fc\u00e7l\u00fc geni\u015fleme sinyaliyle uyumlu seyrini s\u00fcrd\u00fcrd\u00fc. Hizmet ihracat\u0131 \u00fcst \u00fcste ikinci ay y\u00fckselirken, Ekim 2024\u2019ten bu yana en h\u0131zl\u0131 art\u0131\u015f h\u0131z\u0131na ula\u015ft\u0131. \u00c7in verisinin yumu\u015famas\u0131na ra\u011fmen AUD\/USD g\u00fcn i\u00e7inde %0,08 art\u0131\u015fla 0,6930 seviyesindeydi. G\u00fcn\u00fcn kur skor tahtas\u0131nda Avustralya Dolar\u0131, ABD Dolar\u0131 kar\u015f\u0131s\u0131nda %0,09 de\u011fer kazan\u0131rken, Euro kar\u015f\u0131s\u0131nda %0,07 y\u00fckseldi ve Japon Yeni kar\u015f\u0131s\u0131nda %0,18 artt\u0131; Yen kar\u015f\u0131s\u0131nda g\u00fcn\u00fcn en g\u00fc\u00e7l\u00fc performans\u0131n\u0131 sergiledi.<\/p>\n\n
PMI, \u00f6zel sekt\u00f6r ve kamuya ait \u015firketlerde \u00fcst d\u00fczey y\u00f6neticilerle yap\u0131lan anketlerden derleniyor ve Avustralya\u2019ya ba\u011fl\u0131 b\u00fcy\u00fcme, ticaret ve emtia kanallar\u0131 a\u00e7\u0131s\u0131ndan \u00e7\u0131kar\u0131mlar\u0131 nedeniyle izleniyor; ancak RBA kararlar\u0131na do\u011frudan bir girdi de\u011fil. Teknik tarafta AUD\/USD, 20 g\u00fcnl\u00fck basit hareketli ortalama ile 100 g\u00fcnl\u00fck hareketli ortalaman\u0131n alt\u0131nda kal\u0131rken, G\u00f6reli G\u00fc\u00e7 Endeksi (14) 39 civar\u0131nda seyretti. Diren\u00e7 seviyeleri 0,6975, ard\u0131ndan 0,7073 ve 0,7105 olarak i\u015faretlenirken, destek 0,6847 civar\u0131nda g\u00f6r\u00fcld\u00fc. RBA\u2019n\u0131n enflasyon hedefi %2\u20133 olarak belirtilirken, 2021 verilerine g\u00f6re demir cevheri ihracat\u0131 y\u0131ll\u0131k 118 milyar dolar olarak aktar\u0131ld\u0131.<\/p>\n\n
Son \u00c7in Hizmetler PMI verisinin, hafif gerilemesine ra\u011fmen, hizmetler sekt\u00f6r\u00fcnde g\u00fc\u00e7l\u00fc bir geni\u015flemeye i\u015faret etti\u011fini g\u00f6r\u00fcyoruz. Bu, yakla\u015f\u0131k \u00fc\u00e7 y\u0131ldaki en g\u00fc\u00e7l\u00fc \u00fc\u00e7\u00fcnc\u00fc okuma olup, \u00c7in\u2019in Avustralya\u2019n\u0131n en b\u00fcy\u00fck ticaret orta\u011f\u0131 olmas\u0131 nedeniyle Avustralya dolar\u0131n\u0131 temelden destekliyor. Hizmet ihracat\u0131ndaki geni\u015flemenin 2024 sonlar\u0131ndan bu yana en h\u0131zl\u0131 tempoya \u00e7\u0131kmas\u0131 da bu olumlu bak\u0131\u015f\u0131m\u0131z\u0131 daha da peki\u015ftiriyor.<\/p>\n\n
Bu cesaret verici temel g\u00f6r\u00fcn\u00fcme kar\u015f\u0131n, AUD\/USD paritesi teknik a\u00e7\u0131dan zay\u0131fl\u0131k sergiliyor. Fiyat\u0131n \u015fu anda 20 g\u00fcnl\u00fck ve 100 g\u00fcnl\u00fck hareketli ortalamalar\u0131n alt\u0131nda i\u015flem g\u00f6rmesi, k\u0131sa vadeli momentumun a\u015fa\u011f\u0131 y\u00f6nl\u00fc oldu\u011funa i\u015faret ediyor. Bu nedenle \u00f6n\u00fcm\u00fczdeki haftalarda, \u00c7in\u2019den gelen olumlu ekonomik haber ak\u0131\u015f\u0131 ile d\u00fc\u015f\u00fc\u015f e\u011filimli grafik yap\u0131s\u0131 aras\u0131nda bir denge kurmam\u0131z gerekiyor.<\/p>\n\n
G\u00f6r\u00fc\u015f\u00fcm\u00fcz\u00fc desteklemek ad\u0131na, Avustralya\u2019n\u0131n kilit ihracat kalemlerinden olan demir cevheri fiyatlar\u0131n\u0131n son d\u00f6nemde istikrar kazand\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 ve dalgal\u0131 ge\u00e7en ikinci \u00e7eyre\u011fin ard\u0131ndan ton ba\u015f\u0131na 115 dolar civar\u0131nda i\u015flem g\u00f6rd\u00fc\u011f\u00fcn\u00fc not ediyoruz. Ayr\u0131ca Avustralya\u2019da 2026 2. \u00e7eyrek enflasyon verisinin %3,4 gelmesiyle, Avustralya Merkez Bankas\u0131\u2019n\u0131n (RBA) yak\u0131n vadede faiz indirimi sinyali vermesi olas\u0131 g\u00f6r\u00fcnm\u00fcyor. Bu zemin, Aussie dolar\u0131na bir taban sa\u011flayarak, salt d\u00fc\u015f\u00fc\u015f y\u00f6nl\u00fc teknik resmi daha karma\u015f\u0131k hale getiriyor.<\/p>\n\n
Temeller ile teknikler aras\u0131ndaki \u00e7at\u0131\u015fma dikkate al\u0131nd\u0131\u011f\u0131nda, yat\u0131r\u0131mc\u0131lar\u0131n riski y\u00f6netmek i\u00e7in opsiyonlar\u0131 de\u011ferlendirmesi gerekti\u011fine inan\u0131yoruz. 0,6850\u2019deki kritik destek seviyesinin alt\u0131nda bir kullan\u0131m fiyat\u0131na sahip AUD\/USD sat\u0131m (put) opsiyonlar\u0131 almak, a\u015fa\u011f\u0131 y\u00f6nl\u00fc k\u0131r\u0131lmaya kar\u015f\u0131 korunmak i\u00e7in temkinli bir y\u00f6ntem olabilir. Bu strateji, d\u00fc\u015f\u00fc\u015f y\u00f6nl\u00fc teknik sinyallerin \u00c7in\u2019den gelen olumlu haber ak\u0131\u015f\u0131n\u0131 bask\u0131lamas\u0131 halinde kazan\u00e7 sa\u011flayacakt\u0131r.<\/p>\n\n
Alternatif olarak, AUD\/USD\u2019nin 0,6975 civar\u0131ndaki ilk direncin \u00fczerine \u00e7\u0131kmay\u0131 ba\u015farmas\u0131, temel g\u00fcc\u00fcn \u00f6ne ge\u00e7ti\u011fine i\u015faret edecektir. Bu senaryoda, 0,7073 seviyesine do\u011fru olas\u0131 bir harekete kat\u0131lmak i\u00e7in al\u0131m (call) opsiyonlar\u0131 almay\u0131 tercih ederiz. Bu yakla\u015f\u0131m, riski tan\u0131mlarken yukar\u0131 y\u00f6nl\u00fc potansiyeli yakalamaya imk\u00e2n tan\u0131r.<\/p>\n\n
Tarihsel olarak, 2021\u2019de g\u00f6rd\u00fc\u011f\u00fcm\u00fcz t\u00fcrden \u00c7in ekonomik toparlanmas\u0131 d\u00f6nemlerinde g\u00fc\u00e7l\u00fc PMI verileri, \u00e7o\u011fu zaman AUD\u2019de belirgin g\u00fc\u00e7lenmenin \u00f6nc\u00fcs\u00fc olmu\u015ftur. Piyasan\u0131n g\u00fc\u00e7l\u00fc \u00c7in verilerini mi yoksa zay\u0131f AUD\/USD teknik g\u00f6r\u00fcn\u00fcm\u00fcn\u00fc m\u00fc takip edece\u011fine karar vermesiyle oynakl\u0131\u011f\u0131n artaca\u011f\u0131n\u0131 \u00f6ng\u00f6r\u00fcyoruz. AUD\/JPY paritesindeki mevcut g\u00fc\u00e7lenme (\u015fu anda 2015 ba\u015f\u0131ndan bu yana en y\u00fcksek seviyeler), Aussie zay\u0131fl\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131n \u015fimdilik a\u011f\u0131rl\u0131kl\u0131 olarak ABD dolar\u0131 kar\u015f\u0131s\u0131nda yo\u011funla\u015ft\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 da d\u00fc\u015f\u00fcnd\u00fcr\u00fcyor.<\/p>\n\n\n\n