{"id":50556,"date":"2026-07-03T06:29:19","date_gmt":"2026-07-03T06:29:19","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/uncategorized\/zayif-abd-tarim-disi-istihdam-verisi-dolarin-cazibesini-azaltirken-gbp-usd-yukseldi-boe-faiz-artirimi-beklentileri-ve-ingiltere-siyaseti-odakta\/"},"modified":"2026-07-03T06:29:19","modified_gmt":"2026-07-03T06:29:19","slug":"zayif-abd-tarim-disi-istihdam-verisi-dolarin-cazibesini-azaltirken-gbp-usd-yukseldi-boe-faiz-artirimi-beklentileri-ve-ingiltere-siyaseti-odakta","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/live-updates\/zayif-abd-tarim-disi-istihdam-verisi-dolarin-cazibesini-azaltirken-gbp-usd-yukseldi-boe-faiz-artirimi-beklentileri-ve-ingiltere-siyaseti-odakta\/","title":{"rendered":"Zay\u0131f ABD tar\u0131m d\u0131\u015f\u0131 istihdam verisi dolar\u0131n cazibesini azalt\u0131rken GBP\/USD y\u00fckseldi; BoE faiz art\u0131r\u0131m\u0131 beklentileri ve \u0130ngiltere siyaseti odakta"},"content":{"rendered":"

GBP\/USD, zay\u0131f gelen ABD istihdam raporunun ard\u0131ndan ABD dolar\u0131n\u0131n gerilemesiyle cuma g\u00fcn\u00fc Asya i\u015flemlerinin erken saatlerinde 1,3350 civar\u0131na do\u011fru s\u0131n\u0131rl\u0131 y\u00fckseldi. Ba\u011f\u0131ms\u0131zl\u0131k G\u00fcn\u00fc nedeniyle ABD piyasalar\u0131n\u0131n kapal\u0131 olmas\u0131 likiditeyi azalt\u0131yor. \u00c7al\u0131\u015fma \u0130statistikleri B\u00fcrosu (BLS), Tar\u0131m D\u0131\u015f\u0131 \u0130stihdam\u0131n (NFP) haziranda 110 binlik beklentiye kar\u015f\u0131l\u0131k 57 bin artt\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 bildirirken, \u0130\u015fsizlik Oran\u0131 may\u0131staki %4,3\u2019ten %4,2\u2019ye geriledi; daha \u00f6nce yay\u0131mlanan bir g\u00fcncelleme de ABD \u00f6zel sekt\u00f6r istihdam\u0131n\u0131n beklentilerin alt\u0131nda kald\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 g\u00f6stermi\u015fti.<\/p>\n

Piyasalarda, Fed\u2019in yak\u0131n vadede ad\u0131m atma olas\u0131l\u0131\u011f\u0131 d\u00fc\u015ferken faiz beklentileri yeniden \u015fekillendi. CME FedWatch fiyatlamas\u0131, eyl\u00fcl ay\u0131na kadar ABD\u2019de faiz art\u0131\u015f\u0131 olas\u0131l\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131n istihdam verileri \u00f6ncesindeki %66\u2019dan yakla\u015f\u0131k %52\u2019ye geriledi\u011fine i\u015faret ediyor. \u0130ngiltere\u2019de ise Keir Starmer\u2019\u0131n ge\u00e7en hafta g\u00f6revi b\u0131rakmas\u0131n\u0131n ard\u0131ndan dikkatler i\u00e7 siyasette kalmay\u0131 s\u00fcrd\u00fcr\u00fcrken, analistler daha y\u00fcksek kamu harcamalar\u0131n\u0131 finanse etmek i\u00e7in mali kurallarda olas\u0131 bir gev\u015femenin gelecekteki b\u00fct\u00e7eler \u00fczerinden mercek alt\u0131nda olaca\u011f\u0131n\u0131 vurgulad\u0131. Reuters\u2019a g\u00f6re, \u0130ngiltere Merkez Bankas\u0131 (BoE) bu ay\u0131n ilerleyen g\u00fcnlerinde toplanacak; ekonomistler politika de\u011fi\u015fikli\u011fi beklemezken, para piyasalar\u0131 y\u0131l sonuna kadar BoE\u2019den faiz art\u0131\u015f\u0131 ihtimalini %90 olarak fiyatl\u0131yor.<\/p>\n

Zay\u0131f ABD Verisi ve Merkez Bankas\u0131 Ayr\u0131\u015fmas\u0131 GBP\/USD\u2019de Volatiliteyi Besliyor<\/h3>\n

ABD Tar\u0131m D\u0131\u015f\u0131 \u0130stihdam\u0131n (NFP) yaln\u0131zca 57 bin ile tahminlerin belirgin \u015fekilde alt\u0131nda kalmas\u0131, Fed\u2019in yak\u0131n vadede faiz art\u0131r\u0131m\u0131 yapaca\u011f\u0131 tezini kayda de\u011fer \u00f6l\u00e7\u00fcde zay\u0131flatt\u0131. Bu tablo dolar\u0131 bask\u0131 alt\u0131nda b\u0131rak\u0131yor; t\u0131pk\u0131 2023\u2019\u00fcn sonlar\u0131nda yava\u015flayan istihdam verilerinin Fed patikas\u0131n\u0131n h\u0131zla yeniden fiyatlanmas\u0131na yol a\u00e7t\u0131\u011f\u0131 d\u00f6nemlerde g\u00f6rd\u00fc\u011f\u00fcm\u00fcz gibi. Piyasan\u0131n eyl\u00fcl art\u0131\u015f\u0131 olas\u0131l\u0131\u011f\u0131 art\u0131k yakla\u015f\u0131k %50 seviyesine geriledi; bu, anlaml\u0131 bir d\u00fc\u015f\u00fc\u015f ve dolar \u00fczerinde bask\u0131n\u0131n s\u00fcrmesine yol a\u00e7abilir.<\/p>\n

Temkinli bir Fed ile \u201c\u015fahin\u201d bir BoE aras\u0131ndaki bu ayr\u0131\u015fma, GBP\/USD\u2019de artan oynakl\u0131k i\u00e7in elveri\u015fli bir zemin olu\u015fturuyor. \u0130ngiltere\u2019deki siyasi belirsizli\u011fin ekonomik ger\u00e7eklikle \u00e7at\u0131\u015fma ihtimali nedeniyle t\u00fcrev i\u015flem yapan yat\u0131r\u0131mc\u0131lar\u0131n volatilite al\u0131m\u0131n\u0131 de\u011ferlendirmesi gerekti\u011fini d\u00fc\u015f\u00fcn\u00fcyoruz. Paritede bir ayl\u0131k ima edilen volatilite ge\u00e7en hafta %7,5\u2019ten %8,9\u2019a y\u00fckseldi ve bu e\u011filimin s\u00fcrmesini bekliyoruz.<\/p>\n

GBP\/USD\u2019de Enflasyon, Siyaset ve Stratejik Konumlanma<\/h3>\n

\u0130ngiltere taraf\u0131nda BoE, son y\u0131ll\u0131k okumada %3,2\u2019ye gelen yap\u0131\u015fkan enflasyon nedeniyle ad\u0131m atmaya zorlan\u0131yor. Piyasalar y\u0131l sonuna kadar %90 olas\u0131l\u0131kla faiz art\u0131r\u0131m\u0131 fiyatl\u0131yor; bu da temel olarak sterlini destekliyor. Ancak Keir Starmer\u2019\u0131n son istifas\u0131 ve ard\u0131ndan ba\u015flayan \u0130\u015f\u00e7i Partisi liderlik yar\u0131\u015f\u0131, g\u00f6z ard\u0131 edilemeyecek bir siyasi risk katman\u0131 ekliyor.<\/p>\n

Bu arka plan dikkate al\u0131nd\u0131\u011f\u0131nda, a\u015fa\u011f\u0131 y\u00f6nl\u00fc riske kar\u015f\u0131 da koruma sa\u011flayan GBP\/USD\u2019de y\u00fckseli\u015f y\u00f6nl\u00fc t\u00fcrev yap\u0131lara ge\u00e7i\u015fi \u00f6neriyoruz. Eyl\u00fcl vadeli ve 1,3450 civar\u0131nda kullan\u0131m fiyatl\u0131 al\u0131m (call) opsiyonlar\u0131nda de\u011fer g\u00f6r\u00fcyoruz. Bu pozisyon, ABD dolar\u0131ndaki olas\u0131 ek zay\u0131fl\u0131ktan faydalanmam\u0131za imk\u00e2n tan\u0131rken, potansiyel zarar\u0131 \u00f6denen primle s\u0131n\u0131rl\u0131 tutuyor.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Hemen i\u015flem yapmaya ba\u015flay\u0131n \u2014 ger\u00e7ek VT Markets hesab\u0131n\u0131z\u0131 olu\u015fturmak i\u00e7in buraya<\/a> t\u0131klay\u0131n.<\/b>\n\n<\/p>","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

ABD\u2019de zay\u0131f NFP dolar\u0131 bask\u0131lad\u0131, GBP\/USD 1,3350\u2019ye y\u00fckseldi. Fed\u2019in eyl\u00fcl art\u0131\u015f olas\u0131l\u0131\u011f\u0131 %66\u2019dan %52\u2019ye indi. BoE \u015fahin, siyasi risk s\u00fcr\u00fcyor; volatilite artarken 1,3450 call \u00f6ne \u00e7\u0131k\u0131yor.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":87,"featured_media":49995,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[71],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-50556","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-live-updates"],"acf":{"acf_article_selection_author":null},"aioseo_notices":[],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/50556","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/87"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=50556"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/50556\/revisions"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/49995"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=50556"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=50556"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=50556"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}