NZD\/USD, ABD Dolar\u0131\u2019n\u0131n zay\u0131f ABD istihdam verilerinin Federal Rezerv\u2019in (Fed) politika patikas\u0131na ili\u015fkin beklentileri yeniden \u015fekillendirmesinin ard\u0131ndan yumu\u015famas\u0131yla Per\u015fembe g\u00fcn\u00fc 0,5700\u2019e do\u011fru y\u00fckseldi. ABD\u2019de tar\u0131m d\u0131\u015f\u0131 istihdam Haziran\u2019da 57 bin artarak yakla\u015f\u0131k 110 binlik beklentinin belirgin \u015fekilde alt\u0131nda kald\u0131; May\u0131s verisi de 172 binden 129 bine a\u015fa\u011f\u0131 revize edildi ve i\u015fe al\u0131m ivmesinin zay\u0131flad\u0131\u011f\u0131na i\u015faret etti. \u0130\u015fsizlik oran\u0131 %4,2\u2019ye gerilerken, i\u015fg\u00fcc\u00fcne kat\u0131l\u0131m %61,5\u2019e d\u00fc\u015ft\u00fc; bu seviye 2021\u2019den bu yana en d\u00fc\u015f\u00fck d\u00fczey. Ortalama saatlik kazan\u00e7lar y\u0131ll\u0131k bazda %3,5 artt\u0131; bu durum man\u015fet istihdam verisinin k\u0131sa vadeli Fed faiz art\u0131\u015f\u0131 beklentilerini azaltmas\u0131na ra\u011fmen, \u00fccret kaynakl\u0131 enflasyon risklerini g\u00fcndemde tutuyor.<\/p>\n
\u00c7in, ticaret talebi kanal\u0131yla Kiwi \u00fczerinde d\u0131\u015fsal bir \u201csal\u0131n\u0131m\u201d fakt\u00f6r\u00fc olmay\u0131 s\u00fcrd\u00fcr\u00fcyor; g\u00f6zler, May\u0131s\u2019ta 52,6\u2019dan 54,4\u2019e y\u00fckselerek son \u00fc\u00e7 ay\u0131n en h\u0131zl\u0131 geni\u015flemesini g\u00f6steren RatingDog \u00c7in Hizmetler PMI verisine \u00e7evrildi. Teknik tarafta parite 0,5694\u2019ten i\u015flem g\u00f6rerek 0,5729\u2019daki 100-periyot SMA\u2019n\u0131n alt\u0131nda, 0,5673\u2019teki 20-periyot SMA\u2019n\u0131n ise \u00fczerinde seyrederken RSI yakla\u015f\u0131k 61 seviyesinde bulunuyor. Diren\u00e7ler 0,5699, 0,5705, 0,5718, 0,5729 ard\u0131ndan 0,5907, 0,5930 ve 0,5965; destekler ise 0,5690 ve 0,5673 seviyelerinde.<\/p>\n
Beklentilerin alt\u0131nda kalan ABD istihdam raporu \u0131\u015f\u0131\u011f\u0131nda, Fed\u2019in bundan sonraki patikas\u0131n\u0131n temelden de\u011fi\u015fti\u011fini d\u00fc\u015f\u00fcn\u00fcyoruz. Haziran\u2019da yaln\u0131zca 57 binlik istihdam art\u0131\u015f\u0131 ve tahminlerin belirgin \u015fekilde alt\u0131nda kalan ger\u00e7ekle\u015fme, k\u0131sa vadede faiz art\u0131\u015f\u0131n\u0131 son derece d\u00fc\u015f\u00fck olas\u0131l\u0131kl\u0131 hale getiriyor. Bu da ABD Dolar\u0131\u2019n\u0131n cazibesini belirgin bi\u00e7imde zay\u0131flat\u0131rken NZD\/USD gibi paritelerde f\u0131rsat alan\u0131 yarat\u0131yor.<\/p>\n
Bu tablo, b\u00fcy\u00fck NFP s\u00fcrprizlerinin dolar zay\u0131fl\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131n uzad\u0131\u011f\u0131 d\u00f6nemlerin \u00f6ncesinde g\u00f6r\u00fclebildi\u011fi tarihsel \u00f6r\u00fcnt\u00fclerle de \u00f6rt\u00fc\u015f\u00fcyor; 2008 sonras\u0131 d\u00fc\u015f\u00fc\u015f\u00fc takip eden birka\u00e7 \u00e7eyrekte oldu\u011fu gibi. Mevcut g\u00f6r\u00fcn\u00fcm, ABD\u2019de 2\u00c7 GSYH b\u00fcy\u00fcme tahminlerinin %1,8\u2019e \u00e7ekilmesi ve \u00e7ekirdek enflasyonun beklentiden biraz daha h\u0131zl\u0131 \u0131l\u0131mlad\u0131\u011f\u0131na i\u015faret eden son verilerle daha da g\u00fc\u00e7leniyor. Bu e\u011filim, i\u015fg\u00fcc\u00fc piyasas\u0131ndaki yava\u015flaman\u0131n izole bir olaydan ziyade daha geni\u015f \u00e7apl\u0131 bir ekonomik so\u011fuman\u0131n par\u00e7as\u0131 olabilece\u011fini d\u00fc\u015f\u00fcnd\u00fcr\u00fcyor.<\/p>\n
\u00d6n\u00fcm\u00fczdeki haftalar i\u00e7in, tan\u0131ml\u0131 riskle potansiyel yukar\u0131 y\u00f6nl\u00fc hareketten faydalanmak ad\u0131na NZD\/USD al\u0131m (call) opsiyonlar\u0131 alman\u0131n do\u011frudan bir strateji oldu\u011funu d\u00fc\u015f\u00fcn\u00fcyoruz. 0,5729 direncine yak\u0131n kullan\u0131m fiyatlar\u0131na odaklanmak, ABD Dolar\u0131\u2019ndaki gerilemenin s\u00fcrmesi halinde de\u011fer sunabilir. \u0130stihdam raporu sonras\u0131 artan piyasa oynakl\u0131\u011f\u0131 da a\u015fa\u011f\u0131 y\u00f6nl\u00fc koruma satanlar a\u00e7\u0131s\u0131ndan opsiyon primlerini daha cazip hale getiriyor.<\/p>\n
0,5705\u2019teki kritik tavan\u0131n \u00fczerinde olas\u0131 bir k\u0131r\u0131lmaya pozisyon al\u0131yoruz; bu hareket, 0,5900 b\u00f6lgesine do\u011fru daha b\u00fcy\u00fck bir hamleyi tetikleyebilir. Bir bo\u011fa al\u0131m spread\u2019i (bull call spread), pe\u015fin maliyeti s\u0131n\u0131rlarken yak\u0131n diren\u00e7lerin a\u015f\u0131lmas\u0131yla olu\u015fabilecek hareketi hedeflemek a\u00e7\u0131s\u0131ndan etkili bir y\u00f6ntem olabilir. Bu strateji, NZD\/USD\u2019nin \u00f6n\u00fcm\u00fczdeki birka\u00e7 haftada istikrarl\u0131 y\u00fckseli\u015finden kazan\u00e7 sa\u011flar.<\/p>\n
Bununla birlikte, \u00c7in\u2019in Yeni Zelanda Dolar\u0131 \u00fczerindeki etkisine kar\u015f\u0131 temkinli kalmak gerekiyor. Yakla\u015fan RatingDog \u00c7in Hizmetler PMI verisi kritik bir g\u00f6sterge; \u00c7in talebinde olas\u0131 bir zay\u0131flama, genel USD zay\u0131fl\u0131\u011f\u0131na ra\u011fmen Kiwi\u2019deki ralliyi kolayl\u0131kla s\u0131n\u0131rlayabilir. \u00c7in\u2019den hayal k\u0131r\u0131kl\u0131\u011f\u0131 yaratan bir veri, y\u00fckseli\u015f y\u00f6nl\u00fc pozisyonlar\u0131m\u0131z\u0131 hedge etmemize neden olur.<\/p>\n
Bu nedenle k\u0131sa vadeli oda\u011f\u0131m\u0131z, NZD\/USD\u2019nin 0,5729 civar\u0131ndaki 100-periyot SMA\u2019daki teknik direnci a\u015f\u0131p a\u015famayaca\u011f\u0131. Bu seviyenin \u00fczerinde net bir hareket, y\u00fckseli\u015f momentumunu teyit ederek ilave kazan\u00e7lar\u0131n olas\u0131 oldu\u011funa i\u015faret eder. Buna kar\u015f\u0131l\u0131k bu bariyerin a\u015f\u0131lamamas\u0131, ABD verisindeki s\u00fcrprizin paritenin trendini de\u011fi\u015ftirmeye yetmedi\u011fini g\u00f6sterecektir.<\/p>\n\n\n\n