Yen, ABD\u2019de haziran ay\u0131 Tar\u0131m D\u0131\u015f\u0131 \u0130stihdam verisinin beklentilerin alt\u0131nda gelerek dolar\u0131 zay\u0131flatmas\u0131 ve m\u00fcdahale riskini art\u0131rmas\u0131yla per\u015fembe g\u00fcn\u00fc son 40 y\u0131l\u0131n dip seviyelerinden toparland\u0131; USD\/JPY paritesi sekiz haftad\u0131r ilk kez haftal\u0131k d\u00fc\u015f\u00fc\u015fe y\u00f6neldi. Haber ak\u0131\u015f\u0131na g\u00f6re Tokyo, operasyonlar\u0131 \u00f6nceden sinyal verme uygulamas\u0131n\u0131 sonland\u0131rabilir; ABD Ba\u011f\u0131ms\u0131zl\u0131k G\u00fcn\u00fc nedeniyle likiditenin inceldi\u011fi ko\u015fullarda bu durum s\u00fcrpriz hamle olas\u0131l\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 y\u00fckseltiyor. Y\u0131l\u0131n ba\u015flar\u0131nda benzer piyasa \u015fartlar\u0131, pariteyi 160,00 \u00fczerinden 155,00\u2019e do\u011fru \u00e7eken hareketlerin \u00f6ncesinde g\u00f6r\u00fclm\u00fc\u015ft\u00fc.<\/p>\n\n
Japonya\u2019n\u0131n faiz politikas\u0131 yen zay\u0131fl\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 tersine \u00e7evirmi\u015f de\u011fil: Japonya Merkez Bankas\u0131\u2019n\u0131n (BoJ) politika faizi %1,00 ile 1995\u2019ten bu yana en y\u00fcksek seviyede olsa da, ABD Merkez Bankas\u0131\u2019na (Fed) k\u0131yasla yakla\u015f\u0131k 275 baz puanl\u0131k fark carry trade\u2019i destekliyor. \u0130lkbahardaki operasyonlar USD\/JPY\u2019yi k\u0131sa s\u00fcreli a\u015fa\u011f\u0131 \u00e7ekmi\u015fti; ancak parite daha sonra 163,00\u2019e yak\u0131n zirvelere geri toparland\u0131. ABD\u2019de istihdam art\u0131\u015f\u0131 110 bin civar\u0131 beklentiye kar\u015f\u0131 57 bin oldu; i\u015fsizlik %4,2\u2019ye gerilerken i\u015fg\u00fcc\u00fcne kat\u0131l\u0131m oran\u0131 %61,5\u2019e d\u00fc\u015ft\u00fc. \u00d6n\u00fcm\u00fczdeki hafta g\u00fcndemde pazartesi 14:00 GMT\u2019de ISM hizmet endeksi, \u00e7ar\u015famba 18:00 GMT\u2019de FOMC tutanaklar\u0131 ve per\u015fembe i\u015fsizlik ba\u015fvurular\u0131 \u00f6ne \u00e7\u0131k\u0131yor; 162,50 ve 163,00 diren\u00e7, 160,00 ise 158,50 ve 200 EMA\u2019n\u0131n bulundu\u011fu 157,00 civar\u0131yla birlikte destek konumunda.<\/p>\n\n
Bizim a\u00e7\u0131m\u0131zdan en b\u00fcy\u00fck de\u011fi\u015fim, Tokyo\u2019nun art\u0131k herhangi bir uyar\u0131 sinyali vermeden m\u00fcdahaleye istekli g\u00f6r\u00fcnmesi. Bu durum, ABD piyasalar\u0131n\u0131n Ba\u011f\u0131ms\u0131zl\u0131k G\u00fcn\u00fc tatili nedeniyle s\u0131\u011fla\u015ft\u0131\u011f\u0131 bug\u00fcn (3 Temmuz) \u00f6zelinde daha da riskli; olas\u0131 bir operasyonun etkisi b\u00fcy\u00fcyebilir. USD\/JPY\u2019de ani ve sert bir d\u00fc\u015f\u00fc\u015f olas\u0131l\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131n y\u0131l\u0131n en y\u00fcksek seviyesine \u00e7\u0131kt\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 d\u00fc\u015f\u00fcn\u00fcyoruz.<\/p>\n\n
Dolar\u0131n temel dayanaklar\u0131 da en k\u00f6t\u00fc zamanda zay\u0131fl\u0131yor. Son Tar\u0131m D\u0131\u015f\u0131 \u0130stihdam raporu, haziranda yaln\u0131zca 57 binlik art\u0131\u015fla so\u011fuyan i\u015fg\u00fcc\u00fc piyasas\u0131n\u0131 teyit ederken; \u00e7ekirdek PCE enflasyon verisi de y\u00f6netilebilir bir seviye olan %2,6\u2019da kal\u0131yor. Bu tablo, Fed\u2019in \u015fahin duru\u015fu s\u00fcrd\u00fcrmesi i\u00e7in g\u00fc\u00e7l\u00fc bir gerek\u00e7e b\u0131rakm\u0131yor ve dolar\u0131 ayakta tutan kritik bir s\u00fctunu zay\u0131flat\u0131yor.<\/p>\n\n
Bu de\u011fi\u015fen g\u00f6r\u00fcn\u00fcm, i\u015flem dinami\u011finin tamam\u0131n\u0131 d\u00f6n\u00fc\u015ft\u00fcr\u00fcyor. Faiz fark\u0131 h\u00e2l\u00e2 geni\u015f olsa da, vadeli piyasalar art\u0131k eyl\u00fcle kadar Fed faiz indirimi olas\u0131l\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 %70\u2019in \u00fczerinde fiyatl\u0131yor; bu da carry trade\u2019in cazibesini a\u015f\u0131nd\u0131rmaya ba\u015flayacak. Dolay\u0131s\u0131yla USD\/JPY ta\u015f\u0131man\u0131n uzun vadeli k\u00e2rl\u0131l\u0131k motivasyonu d\u00fc\u015f\u00fcyor.<\/p>\n\n
T\u00fcrev stratejimiz a\u00e7\u0131s\u0131ndan bu, ani bir hareket riskinin artt\u0131\u011f\u0131 ortamda ima edilen volatilitenin muhtemelen fazla d\u00fc\u015f\u00fck oldu\u011fu anlam\u0131na geliyor. Kritik 160,00 deste\u011finin alt\u0131na olas\u0131 bir k\u0131r\u0131lmaya pozisyon almak i\u00e7in USD\/JPY put al\u0131mlar\u0131nda veya put spread kurulumlar\u0131nda de\u011fer g\u00f6r\u00fcyoruz. 162,50 direncinin \u00fczerindeki kullan\u0131m fiyatlar\u0131nda call opsiyonu satmak da olumlu bir risk-getiri kurulumu sunuyor.<\/p>\n\n
160,00 seviyesi art\u0131k \u00f6n\u00fcm\u00fczdeki haftalarda trendi belirleyecek pivot nokta. Carry trade\u2019den gelen \u00f6d\u00fcl azal\u0131rken \u201cflash\u201d m\u00fcdahaleye yakalanma riski \u00e7ok daha a\u011f\u0131r bast\u0131\u011f\u0131ndan yeni uzun pozisyon eklemekten ka\u00e7\u0131n\u0131yoruz. \u015eimdilik en az diren\u00e7li y\u00f6n a\u015fa\u011f\u0131 tarafa d\u00f6nm\u00fc\u015f durumda.<\/p>\n\n\n\n