{"id":50539,"date":"2026-07-03T02:29:20","date_gmt":"2026-07-03T02:29:20","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/uncategorized\/dolar-endeksi-zayif-abd-istihdam-verilerinin-fed-beklentilerini-degistirmesiyle-yatay-seyretti-euro-ve-altin-yukseldi\/"},"modified":"2026-07-03T02:29:20","modified_gmt":"2026-07-03T02:29:20","slug":"dolar-endeksi-zayif-abd-istihdam-verilerinin-fed-beklentilerini-degistirmesiyle-yatay-seyretti-euro-ve-altin-yukseldi","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/live-updates\/dolar-endeksi-zayif-abd-istihdam-verilerinin-fed-beklentilerini-degistirmesiyle-yatay-seyretti-euro-ve-altin-yukseldi\/","title":{"rendered":"Dolar Endeksi, zay\u0131f ABD istihdam verilerinin Fed beklentilerini de\u011fi\u015ftirmesiyle yatay seyretti; euro ve alt\u0131n y\u00fckseldi"},"content":{"rendered":"

ABD Dolar Endeksi (DXY), Haziran ay\u0131 Tar\u0131m D\u0131\u015f\u0131 \u0130stihdam art\u0131\u015f\u0131n\u0131n 57 bin gelmesi ve May\u0131s verisinin 172 binden 129 bine a\u015fa\u011f\u0131 y\u00f6nl\u00fc revize edilmesinin ard\u0131ndan, i\u015fe al\u0131m ivmesindeki yava\u015flamaya i\u015faret ederek 100,90 civar\u0131nda seyretti. \u0130\u015fsizlik Oran\u0131 %4,2\u2019ye gerilerken, i\u015fg\u00fcc\u00fcne kat\u0131l\u0131m oran\u0131 %61,5\u2019e d\u00fc\u015ft\u00fc; Ortalama Saatlik Kazan\u00e7lar ise ayl\u0131k %0,3 ve y\u0131ll\u0131k %3,5 ile g\u00fc\u00e7l\u00fc seyrini korudu. EUR\/USD, zay\u0131flayan dolar\u0131n pariteyi desteklemesiyle %0,5 y\u00fckselerek 1,1430\u2019a \u00e7\u0131kt\u0131; Eurostat euro b\u00f6lgesinde i\u015fsizlik oran\u0131n\u0131 May\u0131s\u2019ta Nisan\u2019a k\u0131yasla de\u011fi\u015fmeyerek %6,2 olarak a\u00e7\u0131klad\u0131. AB genelinde i\u015fsizlik %5,9 ile ayl\u0131k bazda yatay kal\u0131rken, May\u0131s 2025\u2019teki %6,0 seviyesinden geriledi.<\/p>\n

GBP\/USD 1,3350 yak\u0131n\u0131nda i\u015flem g\u00f6r\u00fcrken, ABD verisi sonras\u0131 gerileyen Hazine tahvil getirilerinin etkisiyle USD\/JPY yakla\u015f\u0131k %1 d\u00fc\u015f\u00fc\u015fle 161,10 civar\u0131na indi. AUD\/USD, Haziran ay\u0131na ili\u015fkin Avustralya nihai S&P Global Bile\u015fik PMI ve Hizmet PMI verileri \u00f6ncesinde 0,6920 civar\u0131nda g\u00fc\u00e7lendi; \u00f6nc\u00fc okumalar s\u0131ras\u0131yla 49,8 ve 49,9 olmu\u015ftu. \u00c7in\u2019de ise May\u0131s\u2019ta 54,4 gelen RatingDog Hizmet PMI verisi sonras\u0131 yeni a\u00e7\u0131klama bekleniyor. Emtialarda WTI 68,60 dolar\/varil seviyesinde tutunurken, alt\u0131n 4.124 dolara y\u00fckseldi.<\/p>\n

Federal Reserve G\u00f6r\u00fcn\u00fcm\u00fc Ve Piyasa Oynakl\u0131\u011f\u0131<\/h3>\n

ABD istihdam raporundaki sert yava\u015flama dikkate al\u0131nd\u0131\u011f\u0131nda, Federal Reserve\u2019\u00fcn \u015fahin patikas\u0131ndan ayr\u0131lmak zorunda kalaca\u011f\u0131n\u0131 d\u00fc\u015f\u00fcn\u00fcyoruz. Fed fon vadeli i\u015flemlerindeki fiyatlaman\u0131n buna paralel kayd\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 g\u00f6r\u00fcyoruz; CME FedWatch Tool, gelecek \u00e7eyrekte faiz art\u0131\u015f\u0131 olas\u0131l\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 %5\u2019in alt\u0131na indiriyor (ge\u00e7en hafta %30\u2019un \u00fczerindeydi). Bu d\u00f6n\u00fc\u015f, daha y\u00fcksek piyasa oynakl\u0131\u011f\u0131 beklentisini beraberinde getiriyor; S&P 500 gibi endekslerde uzun volatilite (long vol) pozisyonlar\u0131n\u0131 cazip k\u0131l\u0131yor.<\/p>\n

ABD Dolar Endeksi, faiz avantaj\u0131n\u0131n ortadan kalkmas\u0131yla birlikte uzayan bir zay\u0131fl\u0131k d\u00f6nemine girmeye haz\u0131rlan\u0131yor. \u0130stihdam verisinin hemen ard\u0131ndan 10 y\u0131ll\u0131k ABD tahvil getirisinde 15 baz puan\u0131n \u00fczerinde g\u00f6r\u00fclen d\u00fc\u015f\u00fc\u015f bu e\u011filimi teyit ediyor. Bunu de\u011ferlendirmek i\u00e7in, \u00f6n\u00fcm\u00fczdeki haftalarda ilave a\u015fa\u011f\u0131 y\u00f6nl\u00fc hareketten faydalanmak amac\u0131yla dolar\u0131 izleyen ETF\u2019lerde put opsiyonlar\u0131 alarak pozisyonlan\u0131yoruz.<\/p>\n

D\u00f6viz Ve Emtia Stratejileri<\/h3>\n

Dolar\u0131n geri \u00e7ekilmesinin ba\u015fl\u0131ca kazananlar\u0131ndan birinin Euro olaca\u011f\u0131n\u0131 \u00f6ng\u00f6r\u00fcyoruz; euro b\u00f6lgesinde i\u015fsizli\u011fin %6,2 ile yatay kalarak diren\u00e7li istihdam g\u00f6r\u00fcn\u00fcm\u00fcn\u00fc desteklemesi de bu g\u00f6r\u00fc\u015f\u00fc g\u00fc\u00e7lendiriyor. Buna kar\u015f\u0131l\u0131k Sterlin\u2019de yukar\u0131 potansiyelin, \u0130ngiltere Merkez Bankas\u0131 (BoE) politikas\u0131na ili\u015fkin s\u00fcren belirsizlik nedeniyle daha s\u0131n\u0131rl\u0131 kald\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 d\u00fc\u015f\u00fcn\u00fcyoruz. Bu nedenle, GBP\/USD\u2019de benzer bir pozisyon almak yerine EUR\/USD call opsiyonlar\u0131n\u0131 tercih ediyoruz.<\/p>\n

USD\/JPY\u2019nin 161,10\u2019un alt\u0131na sarkmas\u0131 \u00f6nemli; ancak Japon otoritelerinin m\u00fcdahale riski son derece y\u00fcksek kalmaya devam ediyor. Kurun bug\u00fcnk\u00fcnden daha d\u00fc\u015f\u00fck seviyelerde i\u015flem g\u00f6rd\u00fc\u011f\u00fc 2022 sonlar\u0131nda Maliye Bakanl\u0131\u011f\u0131 ad\u0131mlar\u0131n\u0131n ard\u0131ndan Yen\u2019de ya\u015fanan ani ve sert de\u011ferlenmeyi hat\u0131rl\u0131yoruz. Benzer bir ani harekete s\u0131n\u0131rl\u0131 riskle pozisyon almak i\u00e7in JPY call opsiyonlar\u0131 almak temkinli bir strateji.<\/p>\n

ABD dolar\u0131ndaki zay\u0131flama ve faiz beklentilerindeki gerilemeyle birlikte 4.124 dolardaki alt\u0131n g\u00fc\u00e7l\u00fc bir y\u00fckseli\u015f trendinde. Fiyat hareketi \u00f6nemli bir k\u0131r\u0131lmay\u0131 teyit ediyor; bu ivmeyi s\u00fcrd\u00fcrmek i\u00e7in call opsiyon spread\u2019lerini de\u011ferlendiriyoruz. WTI petrolde ise daha temkinliyiz; ABD\u2019de b\u00fcy\u00fcmenin yava\u015flad\u0131\u011f\u0131na dair endi\u015feler, jeopolitik deste\u011fi k\u0131sa s\u00fcrede g\u00f6lgede b\u0131rakabilir ve olas\u0131 y\u00fckseli\u015fleri s\u0131n\u0131rlayabilir.<\/p>\n

Avustralya Dolar\u0131 zay\u0131f dolar\u0131n deste\u011finden faydalan\u0131yor; ancak bundan sonraki seyir b\u00fcy\u00fck \u00f6l\u00e7\u00fcde \u00c7in\u2019den gelecek verilere ba\u011fl\u0131. Yakla\u015fan RatingDog Hizmet PMI kritik olacak; 54\u2019\u00fcn \u00fczerinde g\u00fc\u00e7l\u00fc bir okuma AUD\/USD\u2019yi daha yukar\u0131 ta\u015f\u0131yabilir. B\u00f6lgesel ekonomik g\u00fcce dair daha net bir resim sunmas\u0131 i\u00e7in bu veri gelene kadar yeni Aussie pozisyonlar\u0131 a\u00e7maktan ka\u00e7\u0131n\u0131yoruz.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Hemen i\u015flem yapmaya ba\u015flay\u0131n \u2014 ger\u00e7ek VT Markets hesab\u0131n\u0131z\u0131 olu\u015fturmak i\u00e7in buraya<\/a> t\u0131klay\u0131n.<\/b>\n\n<\/p>","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

ABD istihdam\u0131 sert so\u011fudu, DXY 100,90\u2019a geriledi: Fed\u2019in \u015fahinli\u011fi s\u00f6n\u00fcyor, volatilite art\u0131yor. EUR\/USD 1,1430\u2019da \u00f6ne \u00e7\u0131karken USD\/JPY 161,10\u2019a indi; alt\u0131n 4.124 dolarda g\u00fc\u00e7l\u00fc.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":87,"featured_media":49971,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[71],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-50539","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-live-updates"],"acf":{"acf_article_selection_author":null},"aioseo_notices":[],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/50539","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/87"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=50539"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/50539\/revisions"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/49971"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=50539"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=50539"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=50539"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}