Endonezya\u2019n\u0131n onshore d\u00f6viz (FX) ve tahvil piyasalar\u0131, k\u00fcresel petrol fiyatlar\u0131ndaki geri \u00e7ekilmenin ard\u0131ndan dengelendi; fiyat hareketi g\u00fc\u00e7l\u00fc de\u011fil, daha \u00f6l\u00e7\u00fcl\u00fc olarak tan\u0131mland\u0131. USD\/IDR yeniden 18.000\u2019in alt\u0131na inerken, 17.850\u2019nin alt\u0131nda yeniden talep olu\u015ftu; bu da rupinin b\u00f6lgesel benzerlerinin gerisinde kalmas\u0131na neden oldu.<\/p>\n
Yabanc\u0131lar\u0131n IDR tahvillerine kat\u0131l\u0131m\u0131 h\u0131zland\u0131; dola\u015f\u0131mdaki tahvil stokunda pay %12,7\u2019ye y\u00fckselirken, ak\u0131mlar y\u0131lba\u015f\u0131ndan bu yana ve Haziran\u2019da yeniden net al\u0131ma d\u00f6nd\u00fc. Buna kar\u015f\u0131n hisse senedi giri\u015fleri zay\u0131f kalmaya devam ediyor. Endonezya hisse piyasas\u0131, MSCI\u2019\u0131n \u00fclkeyi \u201cgeli\u015fen piyasa\u201d stat\u00fcs\u00fcnde tutmas\u0131yla k\u0131sa vadeli destek de buldu; ancak odak Kas\u0131m ay\u0131ndaki g\u00f6zden ge\u00e7irmeye kay\u0131yor. Ayr\u0131 olarak, notta IDR\u2019de belirgin bir y\u00fckseli\u015f ve 10 y\u0131ll\u0131k tahvil getirisinde %7\u2019nin alt\u0131na kal\u0131c\u0131 bir ini\u015fin; yurti\u00e7i otoriteler ve d\u00fczenleyicilerden daha destekleyici mesajlar ile ABD\u2019de s\u0131k\u0131la\u015fma beklentilerinin azalmas\u0131n\u0131 gerektirece\u011fi vurguland\u0131.<\/p>\n
K\u00fcresel petrol fiyatlar\u0131 gev\u015fedik\u00e7e Endonezya\u2019n\u0131n onshore piyasalar\u0131na bir miktar istikrar\u0131n geri d\u00f6nd\u00fc\u011f\u00fcn\u00fc g\u00f6r\u00fcyoruz. Brent petrol\u00fcn varil ba\u015f\u0131na 81 dolar civar\u0131na, %8\u2019in \u00fczerinde d\u00fc\u015f\u00fc\u015f kaydetmesi bu rahatlamay\u0131 sa\u011flad\u0131; ancak rupi ve yerel tahvillerdeki kazan\u0131mlar s\u0131n\u0131rl\u0131 kald\u0131. USD\/IDR 18.000\u2019in alt\u0131na inse de IDR b\u00f6lgesel benzerlerinin gerisinde kalmay\u0131 s\u00fcrd\u00fcr\u00fcyor.<\/p>\n
Kur taraf\u0131nda, \u00f6n\u00fcm\u00fczdeki haftalar i\u00e7in USD\/IDR\u2019de volatilite satman\u0131n daha temkinli bir strateji oldu\u011funa inan\u0131yoruz. Parite yatay banda s\u0131k\u0131\u015fma emareleri g\u00f6steriyor ve 17.850\u2019nin alt\u0131nda al\u0131c\u0131 buluyor; bu da rupi lehine g\u00fc\u00e7l\u00fc bir ralli momentumu olmad\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 d\u00fc\u015f\u00fcnd\u00fcr\u00fcyor. Bu ortam, d\u00fc\u015f\u00fck fiyat hareketinden getiri sa\u011flayan k\u0131sa strangle gibi opsiyon stratejileri i\u00e7in elveri\u015fli.<\/p>\n
Yabanc\u0131 yat\u0131r\u0131mc\u0131lar devlet i\u00e7 bor\u00e7lanma senetlerine yeniden ilgi g\u00f6steriyor; veriler ge\u00e7en ay yakla\u015f\u0131k 1,2 milyar dolara yakla\u015fan net giri\u015fe i\u015faret ederken, sahiplik pay\u0131 %13\u2019e yakla\u015ft\u0131. Buna ra\u011fmen g\u00f6sterge 10 y\u0131ll\u0131k getiri, kritik %7 seviyesinin alt\u0131na net bi\u00e7imde yerle\u015fmekte zorlan\u0131yor. Bu da sat\u0131\u015f bask\u0131s\u0131n\u0131n azald\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131, ancak g\u00fc\u00e7l\u00fc bir ralli i\u00e7in ikna edici bir i\u015ftah\u0131n hen\u00fcz olu\u015fmad\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 g\u00f6steriyor.<\/p>\n
Bu nedenle, \u00f6zellikle ABD Merkez Bankas\u0131\u2019ndan (Fed) politika patikas\u0131na ili\u015fkin daha net sinyaller gelmeden getirilerde d\u00fc\u015f\u00fc\u015f y\u00f6nl\u00fc pozisyonlanma konusunda temkinliyiz. Tarihsel olarak Endonezya tahvilleri ABD politika de\u011fi\u015fimlerine olduk\u00e7a hassas; 2013\u2019teki \u201ctaper tantrum\u201d d\u00f6neminde g\u00f6r\u00fcld\u00fc\u011f\u00fc \u00fczere. Faizlerin kal\u0131c\u0131 bir d\u00fc\u015f\u00fc\u015fe ge\u00e7meden \u00f6nce y\u00fckselmesine kar\u015f\u0131, sabit faiz \u00f6denen bir faiz swap\u0131 stratejisiyle korunma sa\u011flanabilir.<\/p>\n
Hisse senetlerinde, MSCI\u2019\u0131n Endonezya\u2019n\u0131n geli\u015fen piyasa stat\u00fcs\u00fcn\u00fc korumas\u0131ndan kaynaklanan ge\u00e7ici rahatlama dikkatle de\u011ferlendirilmelidir. Kas\u0131m ay\u0131ndaki bir sonraki g\u00f6zden ge\u00e7irmeye yakla\u015ft\u0131k\u00e7a piyasa volatilitesinin belirgin \u015fekilde artmas\u0131n\u0131 bekliyoruz. Beklenen bu t\u00fcrb\u00fclans, t\u00fcrev piyasas\u0131 yat\u0131r\u0131mc\u0131lar\u0131 i\u00e7in net bir f\u0131rsat sunuyor.<\/p>\n
Bu g\u00f6r\u00fcn\u00fcm \u00e7er\u00e7evesinde, Jakarta Composite Index (JCI) \u00fczerinde volatilite al\u0131m\u0131 y\u00f6n\u00fcnde pozisyon al\u0131yoruz. JCI vadeli i\u015flemleri \u00fczerine uzun vadeli al\u0131m (call) ve sat\u0131m (put) opsiyonlar\u0131 sat\u0131n almak, y\u00f6n ba\u011f\u0131ms\u0131z \u015fekilde sert bir fiyat sal\u0131n\u0131m\u0131na haz\u0131rl\u0131k sa\u011flar. Bu, \u00f6n\u00fcm\u00fczdeki aylarda piyasa belirsizli\u011finde beklenen art\u0131\u015fa do\u011frudan bir stratejidir.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
Hemen i\u015flem yapmaya ba\u015flay\u0131n \u2014 ger\u00e7ek VT Markets hesab\u0131n\u0131z\u0131 olu\u015fturmak i\u00e7in buraya<\/a> t\u0131klay\u0131n.<\/b>\n\n<\/p>","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":" Petrol fiyatlar\u0131ndaki d\u00fc\u015f\u00fc\u015f Endonezya FX ve tahvillerini sakinle\u015ftirdi: USD\/IDR 18.000 alt\u0131, 17.850\u2019de talep. Yabanc\u0131 tahvil giri\u015fi art\u0131yor; hisse zay\u0131f. Strateji: volatilite sat, JCI\u2019da volatilite al.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":87,"featured_media":50049,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[71],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-50526","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-live-updates"],"acf":{"acf_article_selection_author":null},"aioseo_notices":[],"aioseo_head":"\n\t\t\n\t\n\t\n\t\n\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t