{"id":50524,"date":"2026-07-02T22:00:35","date_gmt":"2026-07-02T22:00:35","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/uncategorized\/zayif-abd-istihdam-verileri-guvercin-fed-beklentilerini-guclendirirken-usd-jpy-161in-altina-geriledi-mudahale-riski-artti\/"},"modified":"2026-07-02T22:00:35","modified_gmt":"2026-07-02T22:00:35","slug":"zayif-abd-istihdam-verileri-guvercin-fed-beklentilerini-guclendirirken-usd-jpy-161in-altina-geriledi-mudahale-riski-artti","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/live-updates\/zayif-abd-istihdam-verileri-guvercin-fed-beklentilerini-guclendirirken-usd-jpy-161in-altina-geriledi-mudahale-riski-artti\/","title":{"rendered":"Zay\u0131f ABD istihdam verileri g\u00fcvercin Fed beklentilerini g\u00fc\u00e7lendirirken USD\/JPY 161\u2019in alt\u0131na geriledi, m\u00fcdahale riski artt\u0131"},"content":{"rendered":"

USD\/JPY, zay\u0131f ABD istihdam raporunun ABD Dolar\u0131 \u00fczerinde bask\u0131 yaratmas\u0131n\u0131n ard\u0131ndan Per\u015fembe g\u00fcn\u00fc %0,92 d\u00fc\u015ferek yakla\u015f\u0131k 161,05 seviyesine geriledi. BLS, Haziran\u2019da Tar\u0131m D\u0131\u015f\u0131 \u0130stihdam\u0131n (Nonfarm Payrolls) 110 binlik beklentiye kar\u015f\u0131 57 bin artt\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 a\u00e7\u0131klad\u0131. May\u0131s verisi 172 binden 129 bine, Nisan verisi ise 179 binden 148 bine revize edildi; toplam a\u015fa\u011f\u0131 y\u00f6nl\u00fc revizyon 74 bin istihdam oldu. Buna ra\u011fmen \u0130\u015fsizlik Oran\u0131 %4,3\u2019ten %4,2\u2019ye geriledi; \u0130\u015fg\u00fcc\u00fcne Kat\u0131l\u0131m Oran\u0131 %61,8\u2019den %61,5\u2019e d\u00fc\u015ft\u00fc; Ortalama Saatlik Kazan\u00e7lar %3,5\u2019e h\u0131zlanarak beklentilere paralel ger\u00e7ekle\u015fti.<\/p>\n

Dikkat, \u00fccretli istihdam verisindeki (payroll) sapman\u0131n yan\u0131 s\u0131ra Fed\u2019in daha az \u015fahin bir duru\u015f benimseyebilece\u011fine y\u00f6nelik piyasa fiyatlamas\u0131nda kald\u0131. Yen ayr\u0131ca m\u00fcdahale riskiyle destek buldu: Reuters, Maliye Bakanl\u0131\u011f\u0131\u2019n\u0131n (MoF) kurdaki son hareketlere ili\u015fkin yorum yapmay\u0131 reddetti\u011fini bildirirken, Japonya Merkez Bankas\u0131\u2019n\u0131n (BoJ) y\u0131l sonundan \u00f6nce bir kez daha faiz art\u0131rabilece\u011fi beklentileri s\u00fcr\u00fcyor. G\u00fcn\u00fcn genel fiyat hareketlerinde yen, dolar kar\u015f\u0131s\u0131nda en g\u00fc\u00e7l\u00fc para birimi olurken JPY, USD\u2019ye kar\u015f\u0131 %0,97 y\u00fckseldi; USD, EUR kar\u015f\u0131s\u0131nda %0,55 ve GBP kar\u015f\u0131s\u0131nda %0,67 geriledi; euro da dolara kar\u015f\u0131 %0,55 de\u011fer kazand\u0131.<\/p>\n

Piyasa Konumlanmas\u0131 ve \u0130\u015flem Stratejileri<\/h3>\n

ABD\u2019de istihdam art\u0131\u015f\u0131n\u0131n bu denli sert yava\u015flamas\u0131yla birlikte, y\u0131l\u0131n geri kalan\u0131 i\u00e7in Fed patikas\u0131n\u0131n de\u011fi\u015fti\u011fini d\u00fc\u015f\u00fcn\u00fcyoruz. Faiz indirimi beklentileri g\u00fc\u00e7lenece\u011finden, daha zay\u0131f bir ABD dolar\u0131na g\u00f6re pozisyon almak gerekiyor. CME FedWatch Tool art\u0131k Eyl\u00fcl toplant\u0131s\u0131na kadar faiz indirimi olas\u0131l\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 %60\u2019\u0131n \u00fczerinde g\u00f6steriyor; bu oran bir hafta \u00f6nce yaln\u0131zca %20 seviyesindeydi.<\/p>\n

USD\/JPY\u2019nin 161,05\u2019in alt\u0131na inmesi hem dolar zay\u0131fl\u0131\u011f\u0131 hem de Japonya\u2019n\u0131n olas\u0131 m\u00fcdahalesi tehdidiyle \u015fekilleniyor. Tarihsel olarak Japon otoritelerinin 2024\u2019te g\u00f6r\u00fcld\u00fc\u011f\u00fc \u00fczere bu seviyelere yak\u0131n b\u00f6lgelerde m\u00fcdahalede bulundu\u011fu d\u00fc\u015f\u00fcn\u00fcld\u00fc\u011f\u00fcnde, paritede do\u011frudan k\u0131sa pozisyonlar cazip g\u00f6r\u00fcn\u00fcyor. Riski s\u0131n\u0131rlarken olas\u0131 sert bir d\u00fc\u015f\u00fc\u015ften faydalanmak i\u00e7in USD\/JPY\u2019de sat\u0131m (put) opsiyonu al\u0131m\u0131n\u0131 de\u011ferlendiriyoruz.<\/p>\n

Bu istihdam raporu, 48,7\u2019ye gerileyen son ISM \u0130malat verisiyle birlikte daha geni\u015f \u00e7apl\u0131 bir ekonomik yava\u015flamaya i\u015faret ediyor. Bu durum, ABD dolar\u0131na ba\u011fl\u0131 t\u00fcm maj\u00f6r paritelerde volatilitenin artma olas\u0131l\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 y\u00fckseltiyor. Bu nedenle, \u00f6n\u00fcm\u00fczdeki haftalar i\u00e7in EUR\/USD\u2019de straddle gibi fiyat dalgalanmalar\u0131ndan faydalanan opsiyon stratejilerinin temkinli bir yakla\u015f\u0131m oldu\u011funu d\u00fc\u015f\u00fcn\u00fcyoruz.<\/p>\n

Geni\u015f Tabanl\u0131 Dolar Zay\u0131fl\u0131\u011f\u0131 ve Faiz G\u00f6r\u00fcn\u00fcm\u00fc<\/h3>\n

\u0130\u015fg\u00fcc\u00fcne kat\u0131l\u0131m oran\u0131n\u0131n %61,5\u2019e d\u00fc\u015fmesi \u00f6zellikle endi\u015fe verici ve man\u015fet i\u015fsizlik oran\u0131n\u0131n yakalayamad\u0131\u011f\u0131 temel zay\u0131fl\u0131klara i\u015faret ediyor. Bu da, Euro gibi daha \u015fahin merkez bankalar\u0131na sahip para birimleri kar\u015f\u0131s\u0131nda dolara y\u00f6nelik negatif (ay\u0131) g\u00f6r\u00fc\u015f\u00fcm\u00fcz\u00fc destekliyor. K\u0131sa dolar pozisyonunu verimli bir \u015fekilde almak i\u00e7in Invesco DB US Dollar Index Bullish Fund (UUP) \u00fczerinde sat\u0131m spread\u2019lerini de\u011ferlendiriyoruz.<\/p>\n

D\u00f6vizlerin \u00f6tesinde, Fed\u2019in daha g\u00fcvercinle\u015fece\u011fi beklentisi faiz piyasalar\u0131n\u0131 do\u011frudan etkileyecek. Faiz indirimi bahisleri artt\u0131k\u00e7a ABD Hazine tahvili getirilerinin d\u00fc\u015f\u00fc\u015f\u00fcn\u00fc s\u00fcrd\u00fcrmesini bekliyoruz. SOFR vadeli i\u015flemleri (futures) bu g\u00f6r\u00fc\u015fe do\u011frudan pozisyon almak i\u00e7in bir yol sunuyor; zira piyasa gelecekte daha d\u00fc\u015f\u00fck faizleri fiyatlad\u0131k\u00e7a bu kontratlar\u0131n fiyatlar\u0131 y\u00fckselir.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Hemen i\u015flem yapmaya ba\u015flay\u0131n \u2014 ger\u00e7ek VT Markets hesab\u0131n\u0131z\u0131 olu\u015fturmak i\u00e7in buraya<\/a> t\u0131klay\u0131n.<\/b>\n\n<\/p>","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

\u015eok NFP: ABD\u2019de istihdam 57 binle beklentiyi ezdi, revizyonlar 74 bin a\u015fa\u011f\u0131. USD\/JPY 161,05\u2019e geriledi; Fed indirimi %60+. JPY m\u00fcdahale\/BoJ deste\u011fiyle \u00f6ne \u00e7\u0131k\u0131yor. Opsiyonla k\u0131sa dolar.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":87,"featured_media":50193,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[71],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-50524","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-live-updates"],"acf":{"acf_article_selection_author":null},"aioseo_notices":[],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/50524","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/87"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=50524"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/50524\/revisions"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/50193"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=50524"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=50524"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=50524"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}