{"id":50514,"date":"2026-07-02T19:30:08","date_gmt":"2026-07-02T19:30:08","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/uncategorized\/usd-cad-zayif-abd-tarim-disi-istihdam-verisinin-fed-faiz-artisi-beklentilerini-azaltmasiyla-geriledi-petrol-fiyatlarindaki-dusus-kanada-dolarindaki-loonie-kazanimlari-sinirladi\/"},"modified":"2026-07-02T19:30:08","modified_gmt":"2026-07-02T19:30:08","slug":"usd-cad-zayif-abd-tarim-disi-istihdam-verisinin-fed-faiz-artisi-beklentilerini-azaltmasiyla-geriledi-petrol-fiyatlarindaki-dusus-kanada-dolarindaki-loonie-kazanimlari-sinirladi","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/live-updates\/usd-cad-zayif-abd-tarim-disi-istihdam-verisinin-fed-faiz-artisi-beklentilerini-azaltmasiyla-geriledi-petrol-fiyatlarindaki-dusus-kanada-dolarindaki-loonie-kazanimlari-sinirladi\/","title":{"rendered":"USD\/CAD, zay\u0131f ABD tar\u0131m d\u0131\u015f\u0131 istihdam verisinin Fed faiz art\u0131\u015f\u0131 beklentilerini azaltmas\u0131yla geriledi; petrol fiyatlar\u0131ndaki d\u00fc\u015f\u00fc\u015f Kanada dolar\u0131ndaki (loonie) kazan\u0131mlar\u0131 s\u0131n\u0131rlad\u0131"},"content":{"rendered":"

USD\/CAD per\u015fembe g\u00fcn\u00fc 1,4150\u2019yi g\u00f6rd\u00fckten sonra (bir haftadan uzun s\u00fcrenin en d\u00fc\u015f\u00fck seviyesi) %0,26 d\u00fc\u015f\u00fc\u015fle 1,4180\u2019e geriledi. Hareketin arkas\u0131nda, ABD \u00c7al\u0131\u015fma \u0130statistikleri B\u00fcrosu\u2019nun (BLS) zay\u0131f istihdam raporu yer ald\u0131: Haziran Tar\u0131m D\u0131\u015f\u0131 \u0130stihdam (NFP) 57 bin artt\u0131; beklenti 110 bindi. \u00d6nceki aylar da a\u015fa\u011f\u0131 revize edildi: May\u0131s 172 binden 129 bine, Nisan 179 binden 148 bine \u00e7ekildi; toplam a\u015fa\u011f\u0131 y\u00f6nl\u00fc revizyon 74 bin oldu.<\/p>\n

Di\u011fer i\u015fg\u00fcc\u00fc g\u00f6stergeleri kar\u0131\u015f\u0131k seyretti. \u0130\u015fsizlik Oran\u0131 %4,3\u2019ten %4,2\u2019ye gerilerken, \u0130\u015fg\u00fcc\u00fcne Kat\u0131l\u0131m Oran\u0131 %61,8\u2019den %61,5\u2019e d\u00fc\u015ft\u00fc. Ortalama Saatlik Kazan\u00e7lar y\u0131ll\u0131k bazda %3,5 artarak beklentiye paralel geldi. Veriler sonras\u0131 faiz beklentileri de\u011fi\u015fti; CME FedWatch arac\u0131 bu y\u0131l iki Fed faiz art\u0131\u015f\u0131 olas\u0131l\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 %27,8\u2019e indirdi (bir \u00f6nceki g\u00fcn %31,9). Kanada\u2019da ise S&P Global \u0130malat PMI haziranda 52,9\u2019dan 53\u2019e s\u0131n\u0131rl\u0131 y\u00fckseldi. CAD dinamiklerinde ayr\u0131ca H\u00fcrm\u00fcz Bo\u011faz\u0131 \u00fczerinden sevkiyata ili\u015fkin fakt\u00f6rlerle ba\u011flant\u0131l\u0131 gerileyen petrol fiyatlar\u0131 ve Washington\u2013Tahran diplomasisi etkili oldu.<\/p>\n

Zay\u0131f ABD \u0130stihdam Verileri Ortam\u0131nda H\u0131zla De\u011fi\u015fen Fed Beklentileri<\/h3>\n

Piyasada Federal Rezerv\u2019e y\u00f6nelik beklentilerin agresif bi\u00e7imde yeniden fiyatland\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 g\u00f6r\u00fcyoruz. Haziranda eklenen \u015fok derecede d\u00fc\u015f\u00fck 57 bin istihdam ve \u00f6nceki iki aya ili\u015fkin belirgin a\u015fa\u011f\u0131 revizyonlar, ABD i\u015fg\u00fcc\u00fc piyasas\u0131nda h\u0131zl\u0131 bir so\u011fumaya i\u015faret ediyor. Bu zay\u0131fl\u0131k, bu y\u0131l iki Fed faiz art\u0131\u015f\u0131 olas\u0131l\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 %28\u2019in alt\u0131na iterken ABD Dolar\u0131 \u00fczerinde do\u011frudan bask\u0131 yarat\u0131yor.<\/p>\n

Bu istihdam raporu Fed i\u00e7in ciddi bir ikilem olu\u015fturuyor ve 16 Temmuz\u2019da a\u00e7\u0131klanacak haziran T\u00fcketici Fiyat Endeksi (T\u00dcFE) verisini daha kritik hale getiriyor. \u00dccret art\u0131\u015f\u0131n\u0131n %3,5 ile diren\u00e7li kalmas\u0131 ve may\u0131s \u00c7ekirdek T\u00dcFE\u2019nin %3,4 gelmesi dikkate al\u0131nd\u0131\u011f\u0131nda, i\u015fe al\u0131mlardaki yava\u015flamaya e\u015flik eden kal\u0131c\u0131 enflasyon sinyalleri piyasa belirsizli\u011fini art\u0131racakt\u0131r. Bunun USD paritelerinde fiyat dalgalanmalar\u0131nda belirgin bir art\u0131\u015fa yol a\u00e7mas\u0131n\u0131 bekliyoruz.<\/p>\n

USD\/CAD i\u00e7in Oynakl\u0131k ve \u0130\u015flem G\u00f6r\u00fcn\u00fcm\u00fc<\/h3>\n

T\u00fcrev piyasa yat\u0131r\u0131mc\u0131lar\u0131 a\u00e7\u0131s\u0131ndan bu tablo, k\u0131sa vadede daha y\u00fcksek oynakl\u0131\u011fa i\u015faret ediyor. USD\/CAD\u2019de 1 ayl\u0131k z\u0131mni volatilite, istihdam verisi sonras\u0131nda yakla\u015f\u0131k %6,5 seviyelerinden %7,8\u2019e s\u0131\u00e7rad\u0131. Y\u00f6n tahmini yapmaktan ziyade, fiyat hareketindeki art\u0131\u015ftan faydalanan stratejilerin (straddle veya strangle al\u0131m\u0131 gibi) art\u0131k daha cazip oldu\u011funu d\u00fc\u015f\u00fcn\u00fcyoruz.<\/p>\n

Bununla birlikte petrol fiyatlar\u0131ndaki zay\u0131fl\u0131k nedeniyle USD\/CAD\u2019e ili\u015fkin d\u00fc\u015f\u00fc\u015f beklentimizi s\u0131n\u0131rlamak gerekiyor. Orta Do\u011fu\u2019da jeopolitik tansiyonun azalmas\u0131yla WTI ham petrol\u00fcn\u00fcn varil ba\u015f\u0131na 80 dolar\u0131n alt\u0131na sarkmas\u0131, Kanada Dolar\u0131 i\u00e7in belirgin bir r\u00fczg\u00e2r tersine d\u00f6nmesine neden oluyor. Bu durum, \u201cLoonie\u201dnin yukar\u0131 y\u00f6nl\u00fc potansiyelini muhtemelen s\u0131n\u0131rlayacak ve paritede bir taban olu\u015fumunu destekleyecektir.<\/p>\n

Bu kar\u015f\u0131t g\u00fc\u00e7ler nedeniyle USD\/CAD\u2019in yeni bir d\u00fc\u015f\u00fc\u015f trendine girmekten ziyade dalgal\u0131 ve bant i\u00e7inde seyretmesini bekliyoruz. 1,4150\u2019deki son dip seviyesini kritik bir destek olarak izleyece\u011fiz. \u00d6n\u00fcm\u00fczdeki haftalarda 1,4150-1,4350 band\u0131 beklentisinin d\u0131\u015f\u0131ndaki kullan\u0131m fiyatlar\u0131na sahip opsiyonlar\u0131n sat\u0131lmas\u0131 uygulanabilir bir strateji olabilir.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Hemen i\u015flem yapmaya ba\u015flay\u0131n \u2014 ger\u00e7ek VT Markets hesab\u0131n\u0131z\u0131 olu\u015fturmak i\u00e7in buraya<\/a> t\u0131klay\u0131n.<\/b>\n\n<\/p>","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

USD\/CAD 1,4150\u2019den toparlan\u0131p 1,4180\u2019e \u00e7\u0131kt\u0131: zay\u0131f ABD NFP (57 bin) ve a\u015fa\u011f\u0131 revizyonlar Fed beklentilerini d\u00fc\u015f\u00fcrd\u00fc. Petrol gerilerken oynakl\u0131k artt\u0131; 1,4150\u20131,4350 bant senaryosu \u00f6ne \u00e7\u0131k\u0131yor.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":87,"featured_media":49985,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[71],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-50514","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-live-updates"],"acf":{"acf_article_selection_author":null},"aioseo_notices":[],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/50514","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/87"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=50514"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/50514\/revisions"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/49985"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=50514"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=50514"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=50514"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}