{"id":50509,"date":"2026-07-02T17:59:21","date_gmt":"2026-07-02T17:59:21","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/uncategorized\/zayif-abd-tarim-disi-istihdam-verisinin-dolarda-satislari-tetiklemesi-ve-fed-beklentilerinin-yeniden-fiyatlanmasiyla-usd-chf-haziran-dip-seviyesini-gordu\/"},"modified":"2026-07-02T17:59:21","modified_gmt":"2026-07-02T17:59:21","slug":"zayif-abd-tarim-disi-istihdam-verisinin-dolarda-satislari-tetiklemesi-ve-fed-beklentilerinin-yeniden-fiyatlanmasiyla-usd-chf-haziran-dip-seviyesini-gordu","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/live-updates\/zayif-abd-tarim-disi-istihdam-verisinin-dolarda-satislari-tetiklemesi-ve-fed-beklentilerinin-yeniden-fiyatlanmasiyla-usd-chf-haziran-dip-seviyesini-gordu\/","title":{"rendered":"Zay\u0131f ABD tar\u0131m d\u0131\u015f\u0131 istihdam verisinin dolarda sat\u0131\u015flar\u0131 tetiklemesi ve Fed beklentilerinin yeniden fiyatlanmas\u0131yla USD\/CHF Haziran dip seviyesini g\u00f6rd\u00fc"},"content":{"rendered":"

USD\/CHF, Per\u015fembe g\u00fcn\u00fc ABD Dolar\u0131\u2019nda genel \u00e7apl\u0131 sat\u0131\u015flar\u0131n, zay\u0131f gelen ABD Tar\u0131m D\u0131\u015f\u0131 \u0130stihdam (NFP) verisini takip etmesiyle geriledi. Parite 0,8029 civar\u0131nda i\u015flem g\u00f6rd\u00fc; bu seviye 18 Haziran\u2019dan bu yana en d\u00fc\u015f\u00fck d\u00fczey olurken, g\u00fcn i\u00e7inde yakla\u015f\u0131k %0,80 d\u00fc\u015f\u00fc\u015f kaydetti. ABD \u00c7al\u0131\u015fma \u0130statistikleri B\u00fcrosu (BLS), ekonominin haziranda 110 binlik piyasa beklentisine kar\u015f\u0131l\u0131k 57 bin istihdam yaratt\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 a\u00e7\u0131klad\u0131; may\u0131s verisi ise 172 binden 129 bine revize edildi. Buna ra\u011fmen i\u015fsizlik oran\u0131 %4,3\u2019ten %4,2\u2019ye gerilerken, Ortalama Saatlik Kazan\u00e7lar ayl\u0131k bazda %0,3 ve y\u0131ll\u0131k bazda %3,5 artarak beklentilerle uyumlu ger\u00e7ekle\u015fti.<\/p>\n

Veri sonras\u0131 faiz indirim\/art\u0131r\u0131m fiyatlamalar\u0131 de\u011fi\u015fti; CME FedWatch Tool, eyl\u00fclde Fed\u2019in ad\u0131m atmas\u0131na ili\u015fkin ima edilen olas\u0131l\u0131\u011f\u0131n %63\u2019ten %51\u2019e geriledi\u011fini g\u00f6sterdi. Dolar, Japon Yeni\u2019nin olas\u0131 resm\u00ee m\u00fcdahale s\u00f6ylemleriyle toparlanmas\u0131n\u0131n ard\u0131ndan g\u00fcn\u00fcn erken saatlerinde de bask\u0131 alt\u0131nda kald\u0131. Bu arka planda ABD Dolar Endeksi 100,70 civar\u0131nda, yakla\u015f\u0131k %0,70 ekside seyrederken, g\u00f6zler \u0130svi\u00e7re\u2019ye de \u00e7evrildi: \u0130svi\u00e7re\u2019de haziran T\u00dcFE ayl\u0131k %0,0 ile %0,1\u2019lik tahminin alt\u0131nda ve \u00f6nceki %0,2\u2019nin gerisinde kald\u0131; y\u0131ll\u0131k T\u00dcFE %0,6\u2019dan %0,5\u2019e gerileyerek SNB\u2019nin %0\u2013%2 hedef band\u0131nda, politika faizinin %0 oldu\u011fu ortamda seyrini s\u00fcrd\u00fcrd\u00fc.<\/p>\n

Federal Rezerv Beklentilerinde De\u011fi\u015fim ve ABD \u0130\u015fg\u00fcc\u00fc Piyasas\u0131nda Zay\u0131flama \u0130\u015faretleri<\/h3>\n

Zay\u0131f istihdam verisi, yaz\u0131n geri kalan\u0131na ili\u015fkin Federal Rezerv patikas\u0131 beklentimizi temelden de\u011fi\u015ftiriyor. \u0130stihdam art\u0131\u015f\u0131n\u0131n may\u0131sta revize edilen 129 binden haziranda sadece 57 bine sert \u015fekilde gerilemesini, ABD i\u015fg\u00fcc\u00fc piyasas\u0131nda so\u011fuman\u0131n net bir i\u015fareti olarak g\u00f6r\u00fcyoruz. Bu durum, \u00f6n\u00fcm\u00fczdeki aylarda yeni bir faiz art\u0131r\u0131m\u0131 olas\u0131l\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 belirgin bi\u00e7imde d\u00fc\u015f\u00fcr\u00fcyor.<\/p>\n

Bu tekil bir veri noktas\u0131 de\u011fil; di\u011fer \u00f6nc\u00fc g\u00f6stergeler de bu tabloya zemin haz\u0131rl\u0131yordu. JOLTS anketiyle \u00f6l\u00e7\u00fclen a\u00e7\u0131k i\u015f say\u0131s\u0131 may\u0131sta 8,4 milyona gerileyerek, 10 milyonun \u00fczerindeki zirvelerden bu yana bir y\u0131l\u0131 a\u015fk\u0131n s\u00fcredir devam eden d\u00fc\u015f\u00fc\u015f\u00fcn\u00fc s\u00fcrd\u00fcrd\u00fc. Haziran ay\u0131na ili\u015fkin son ISM \u0130malat PMI verisi de 46,3 seviyesinde gelerek fabrika sekt\u00f6r\u00fcnde \u00fcst \u00fcste sekizinci ay daralmaya i\u015faret etti.<\/p>\n

USD\/CHF G\u00f6r\u00fcn\u00fcm\u00fc ve \u0130\u015flem Stratejisi<\/h3>\n

Bu nedenlerle, ABD Dolar\u0131\u2019nda s\u00fcregelen zay\u0131fl\u0131\u011fa, \u00f6zellikle \u0130svi\u00e7re Frang\u0131 kar\u015f\u0131s\u0131nda odaklan\u0131yoruz. \u0130svi\u00e7re enflasyon verileri sakin seyrini koruyor; son y\u0131ll\u0131k T\u00dcFE sadece %0,5. Bu, \u0130svi\u00e7re Merkez Bankas\u0131\u2019na (SNB) mevcut politikas\u0131n\u0131 de\u011fi\u015ftirmesi i\u00e7in bir gerek\u00e7e vermiyor; dolay\u0131s\u0131yla USD\/CHF kuru, ABD\u2019ye y\u00f6nelik b\u00fcy\u00fcme ve para politikas\u0131 beklentilerindeki ayr\u0131\u015fmaya y\u00f6nelik \u201ctemiz\u201d bir fiyatlama alan\u0131 sunuyor.<\/p>\n

Mevcut ko\u015fullarda en etkili stratejinin, temmuz sonu ile a\u011fustos vadeli USD\/CHF sat\u0131m (put) opsiyonlar\u0131 almak oldu\u011funu d\u00fc\u015f\u00fcn\u00fcyoruz. Bu yap\u0131, paritede a\u015fa\u011f\u0131 y\u00f6n\u00fcn s\u00fcrmesi halinde kazan\u00e7 imk\u00e2n\u0131 sunarken, potansiyel zarar\u0131 s\u0131n\u0131rl\u0131yor. Rapordan sonra s\u00f6z konusu opsiyonlar\u0131n ima edilen volatilitesi y\u00fckseldi; ancak a\u015fa\u011f\u0131 y\u00f6nl\u00fc y\u00f6n hareketinin daha g\u00fc\u00e7l\u00fc olmas\u0131n\u0131 bekliyoruz.<\/p>\n

Tarihsel olarak, man\u015fet istihdam verisinde bu \u00f6l\u00e7ekte bir sapma yaln\u0131zca tek g\u00fcnl\u00fck bir hareketle s\u0131n\u0131rl\u0131 kalm\u0131yor; \u00e7o\u011fu zaman birka\u00e7 haftaya yay\u0131lan i\u015flem temas\u0131n\u0131 belirliyor. Piyasan\u0131n oda\u011f\u0131 \u015fimdi tamamen 14 Temmuz\u2019daki ABD T\u00fcketici Fiyat Endeksi (T\u00dcFE) verisine kayacak. Enflasyonda bir ba\u015fka yumu\u015fak okuma, Fed\u2019in \u201cbekle-g\u00f6r\u201d tutumunu b\u00fcy\u00fck \u00f6l\u00e7\u00fcde peki\u015ftirerek USD\/CHF\u2019yi 0,7900 seviyesine do\u011fru itebilir.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Hemen i\u015flem yapmaya ba\u015flay\u0131n \u2014 ger\u00e7ek VT Markets hesab\u0131n\u0131z\u0131 olu\u015fturmak i\u00e7in buraya<\/a> t\u0131klay\u0131n.<\/b>\n\n<\/p>","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

\u015eok NFP dolar\u0131 satt\u0131rd\u0131: USD\/CHF 18 Haziran\u2019dan beri en d\u00fc\u015f\u00fck 0,8029\u2019a inerken %0,8 d\u00fc\u015ft\u00fc. Fed beklentileri zay\u0131flad\u0131; \u0130svi\u00e7re T\u00dcFE sakin. Strateji: k\u0131sa vadeli put, hedef 0,7900.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":87,"featured_media":50005,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[71],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-50509","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-live-updates"],"acf":{"acf_article_selection_author":null},"aioseo_notices":[],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/50509","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/87"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=50509"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/50509\/revisions"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/50005"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=50509"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=50509"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=50509"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}