{"id":50500,"date":"2026-07-02T14:01:06","date_gmt":"2026-07-02T14:01:06","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/uncategorized\/sterlin-yukselirken-dolar-geriliyor-piyasalar-fed-beklentilerinin-yeniden-sekillenmesi-icin-abd-istihdam-verisine-odaklandi\/"},"modified":"2026-07-02T14:01:06","modified_gmt":"2026-07-02T14:01:06","slug":"sterlin-yukselirken-dolar-geriliyor-piyasalar-fed-beklentilerinin-yeniden-sekillenmesi-icin-abd-istihdam-verisine-odaklandi","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/live-updates\/sterlin-yukselirken-dolar-geriliyor-piyasalar-fed-beklentilerinin-yeniden-sekillenmesi-icin-abd-istihdam-verisine-odaklandi\/","title":{"rendered":"Sterlin y\u00fckselirken dolar geriliyor; piyasalar Fed beklentilerinin yeniden \u015fekillenmesi i\u00e7in ABD istihdam verisine odakland\u0131"},"content":{"rendered":"

Sterlin, Per\u015fembe g\u00fcnk\u00fc Avrupa seans\u0131nda ABD dolar\u0131na kar\u015f\u0131 %0,5 y\u00fckselerek yakla\u015f\u0131k 1,3340 seviyesine \u00e7\u0131kt\u0131. Bu y\u00fckseli\u015f, ye\u015filback\u2019in 12:30 GMT\u2019de a\u00e7\u0131klanacak Haziran ay\u0131 ABD Tar\u0131m D\u0131\u015f\u0131 \u0130stihdam (Nonfarm Payrolls) verisi \u00f6ncesinde benzer para birimlerinin gerisinde kalmas\u0131yla geldi. ABD Dolar Endeksi (DXY) %0,4 d\u00fc\u015f\u00fc\u015fle 101,00 civar\u0131na gerilerken, piyasalar istihdam verisinin Federal Rezerv beklentilerini nas\u0131l de\u011fi\u015ftirebilece\u011fine odakland\u0131. \u0130stihdam art\u0131\u015f\u0131n\u0131n May\u0131s\u2019taki 172 bin seviyesinden 110 bine yava\u015flamas\u0131 beklenirken, i\u015fsizlik oran\u0131n\u0131n %4,3\u2019te sabit kalaca\u011f\u0131 \u00f6ng\u00f6r\u00fcl\u00fcyor.<\/p>\n

Fed fiyatlamas\u0131na y\u00f6nelik dikkat, Kevin Warsh\u2019un ba\u015fkan olarak geri d\u00f6nmesinden bu yana artt\u0131. Warsh, Haziran toplant\u0131s\u0131nda ileriye d\u00f6n\u00fck y\u00f6nlendirmelerin mevcut politika konjonkt\u00fcr\u00fc i\u00e7in uygun olmad\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 s\u00f6ylemi\u015fti. \u00c7ar\u015famba g\u00fcn\u00fc Sintra\u2019daki ECB Forumu\u2019nda da faiz patikas\u0131na ili\u015fkin rehberlik vermekten ka\u00e7\u0131nd\u0131; ancak enflasyonun \u201c\u00e7ok y\u00fcksek\u201d kald\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 belirterek fiyat istikrar\u0131n\u0131 yeniden tesis etme ihtiyac\u0131n\u0131 yineledi. Sterlin, bu hafta ayr\u0131ca Birle\u015fik Krall\u0131k\u2019ta liderlik de\u011fi\u015fimine ra\u011fmen mali disiplin ilkelerinin korunaca\u011f\u0131 y\u00f6n\u00fcndeki beklentilerle de g\u00fc\u00e7l\u00fc seyretti; Ba\u015fbakan Keir Starmer\u2019\u0131n istifas\u0131n\u0131n ard\u0131ndan en g\u00fc\u00e7l\u00fc aday olarak g\u00f6r\u00fclen Greater Manchester Belediye Ba\u015fkan\u0131 Andy Burnham, Labour\u2019un 2024 manifestosuna ba\u011fl\u0131l\u0131\u011f\u0131 yeniden teyit etti.<\/p>\n

ABD \u0130stihdam Verisine Y\u00f6nelik Piyasa Beklentileri ve Senaryolar<\/h3>\n

Piyasan\u0131n bug\u00fcn zay\u0131f bir ABD istihdam raporuna pozisyonland\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 g\u00f6r\u00fcyoruz; Tar\u0131m D\u0131\u015f\u0131 \u0130stihdam i\u00e7in konsens\u00fcs tahmin yaln\u0131zca 110.000 seviyesinde. Bu beklenti ABD dolar endeksini 101,00 civar\u0131na iterken, GBP\/USD\u2019nin 1,3300 \u00fczerinde destek bulmas\u0131na yard\u0131mc\u0131 oldu. Kritik nokta, ger\u00e7ekle\u015fen verinin bu d\u00fc\u015f\u00fck e\u015fi\u011fe g\u00f6re nas\u0131l konumlanaca\u011f\u0131.<\/p>\n

110.000\u2019in belirgin \u015fekilde alt\u0131nda bir veri, Fed politikas\u0131n\u0131n i\u015fg\u00fcc\u00fc piyasas\u0131n\u0131 so\u011futtu\u011funa i\u015faret edece\u011fi i\u00e7in dolarda ilave bir gerilemeyi tetikleyebilir. Bu senaryoda GBP\/USD\u2019nin \u00f6n\u00fcm\u00fczdeki birka\u00e7 seansta 1,3450 b\u00f6lgesine do\u011fru diren\u00e7 test etmesi g\u00f6r\u00fclebilir. Buna kar\u015f\u0131l\u0131k 150.000\u2019in \u00fczerinde s\u00fcrpriz bir okuma, mevcut anlat\u0131y\u0131 zorlayarak dolarda sert bir ralliye yol a\u00e7abilir.<\/p>\n

Oynakl\u0131k, Fed Y\u00f6nlendirmesi ve \u0130\u015flem Pozisyonlanmas\u0131<\/h3>\n

T\u00fcrev piyasas\u0131na bak\u0131ld\u0131\u011f\u0131nda, GBP\/USD i\u00e7in 1 haftal\u0131k z\u0131mni volatilite %9,8\u2019e y\u00fckselerek son d\u00f6nem ortalamas\u0131n\u0131n belirgin bi\u00e7imde \u00fczerine \u00e7\u0131kt\u0131. Bu, opsiyon piyasas\u0131 kat\u0131l\u0131mc\u0131lar\u0131n\u0131n a\u00e7\u0131klama sonras\u0131 her iki y\u00f6nde 120 pipin \u00fczerinde bir hareketi fiyatlad\u0131\u011f\u0131na i\u015faret ediyor. Bunun, bug\u00fcnk\u00fc veri a\u00e7\u0131klamas\u0131n\u0131n y\u00fcksek \u00f6nemini do\u011fru yans\u0131tt\u0131\u011f\u0131 kanaatindeyiz.<\/p>\n

Fed Ba\u015fkan\u0131 Warsh\u2019un ileriye d\u00f6n\u00fck y\u00f6nlendirme vermeyi reddetmesiyle piyasa her maj\u00f6r veri noktas\u0131na do\u011frudan tepki veriyor. G\u00fc\u00e7l\u00fc bir istihdam verisi, \u00f6zellikle son T\u00dcFE raporunda enflasyonun %3,4 ile yap\u0131\u015fkan kald\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131n g\u00f6r\u00fclmesinin ard\u0131ndan, \u015fahin bir Fed arg\u00fcman\u0131n\u0131 g\u00fc\u00e7lendirebilir. Bu da dolar\u0131 Temmuz boyunca destekleyebilir.<\/p>\n

Sadece May\u0131s 2024 NFP raporuna d\u00f6n\u00fcp bakmak yeterli: 182.000\u2019lik beklentiye kar\u015f\u0131 272.000\u2019lik g\u00fc\u00e7l\u00fc s\u00fcrpriz, ABD dolar endeksinde h\u0131zl\u0131 bir \u015fekilde %1\u2019lik s\u0131\u00e7ramaya yol a\u00e7m\u0131\u015ft\u0131. Bu \u00f6rnek, beklentiler ger\u00e7eklikle uyu\u015fmad\u0131\u011f\u0131nda duyarl\u0131l\u0131\u011f\u0131n ne kadar h\u0131zl\u0131 de\u011fi\u015febilece\u011fini g\u00f6steriyor. Bug\u00fcn benzer bir s\u00fcrpriz, sterlinin son d\u00f6nemdeki momentumunu muhtemelen g\u00f6lgede b\u0131rakacakt\u0131r.<\/p>\n

Sterlinin kendi g\u00fcc\u00fc, Birle\u015fik Krall\u0131k\u2019ta alg\u0131lanan siyasi s\u00fcreklilikten kaynaklanarak \u015fimdilik sa\u011flam bir taban olu\u015fturuyor. Ancak b\u00f6ylesine kritik bir ABD veri a\u00e7\u0131klamas\u0131 sonras\u0131nda, bu i\u00e7 dinamiklerin dolardaki y\u00f6n\u00fcn gerisinde kalmas\u0131 muhtemel. \u00d6n\u00fcm\u00fczdeki haftalarda parite i\u00e7in belirleyici unsurun ABD para politikas\u0131 olmas\u0131n\u0131 bekliyoruz.<\/p>\n

Bu etkinli\u011fin ikili (binary) risk do\u011fas\u0131 dikkate al\u0131nd\u0131\u011f\u0131nda, beklenen volatiliteden faydalanmak i\u00e7in opsiyonlar \u00fczerinden pozisyon al\u0131yoruz. K\u0131sa vadeli GBP\/USD straddle al\u0131m\u0131, y\u00f6n ba\u011f\u0131ms\u0131z \u015fekilde anlaml\u0131 bir fiyat sal\u0131n\u0131m\u0131ndan k\u00e2r etmeyi m\u00fcmk\u00fcn k\u0131lar. \u0130stihdam verisi sindirilip Fed\u2019in politika patikas\u0131 daha netle\u015fene kadar bu strateji temkinli g\u00f6r\u00fcn\u00fcyor.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Hemen i\u015flem yapmaya ba\u015flay\u0131n \u2014 ger\u00e7ek VT Markets hesab\u0131n\u0131z\u0131 olu\u015fturmak i\u00e7in buraya<\/a> t\u0131klay\u0131n.<\/b>\n\n<\/p>","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

G\u00f6zler ABD NFP\u2019de: Sterlin 1,3340\u2019a t\u0131rman\u0131rken DXY 101\u2019e geriledi. Konsens\u00fcs 110 bin; zay\u0131f veri 1,3450\u2019yi hedefletebilir, g\u00fc\u00e7l\u00fc s\u00fcrpriz dolar\u0131 s\u0131\u00e7rat\u0131r. Volatilite y\u00fckseldi.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":87,"featured_media":50047,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[71],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-50500","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-live-updates"],"acf":{"acf_article_selection_author":null},"aioseo_notices":[],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/50500","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/87"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=50500"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/50500\/revisions"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/50047"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=50500"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=50500"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=50500"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}