{"id":50489,"date":"2026-07-02T10:59:43","date_gmt":"2026-07-02T10:59:43","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/uncategorized\/usd-jpyde-dalgalanma-mudahale-soylentilerini-alevlendirirken-piyasalar-abd-istihdam-raporuna-hazirlaniyor\/"},"modified":"2026-07-02T10:59:43","modified_gmt":"2026-07-02T10:59:43","slug":"usd-jpyde-dalgalanma-mudahale-soylentilerini-alevlendirirken-piyasalar-abd-istihdam-raporuna-hazirlaniyor","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/live-updates\/usd-jpyde-dalgalanma-mudahale-soylentilerini-alevlendirirken-piyasalar-abd-istihdam-raporuna-hazirlaniyor\/","title":{"rendered":"USD\/JPY\u2019de Dalgalanma M\u00fcdahale S\u00f6ylentilerini Alevlendirirken Piyasalar ABD \u0130stihdam Raporuna Haz\u0131rlan\u0131yor"},"content":{"rendered":"

USD\/JPY Avrupa\u2019da dalgal\u0131 seyretti ve olas\u0131 d\u00f6viz m\u00fcdahalesi s\u00f6ylentilerini k\u00f6r\u00fckledi. Parite, Asya seans\u0131n\u0131n erken saatlerinde 162,50 civar\u0131nda i\u015flem g\u00f6rd\u00fckten sonra, dakikalar i\u00e7inde 100 pipten fazla gerileyerek k\u0131sa s\u00fcreli\u011fine 161,00\u2019e yakla\u015ft\u0131; ard\u0131ndan 162,00\u2019ye do\u011fru toparlan\u0131p yeniden zay\u0131flad\u0131. Son olarak 161,50\u2019nin alt\u0131nda yakla\u015f\u0131k %0,8 d\u00fc\u015f\u00fc\u015fteydi. G\u00fcn\u00fcn ilerleyen saatlerinde ABD \u00c7al\u0131\u015fma \u0130statistikleri B\u00fcrosu\u2019nun (BLS), Tar\u0131m D\u0131\u015f\u0131 \u0130stihdam, i\u015fsizlik oran\u0131 ve \u00fccret enflasyonunu i\u00e7eren haziran ay\u0131 istihdam raporunu yay\u0131mlamas\u0131 bekleniyor. Ayr\u0131 olarak, Japonya Ekonomik ve Mali Politikalar Konseyi\u2019nin \u00f6zel sekt\u00f6r \u00fcyesi, Japonya Merkez Bankas\u0131\u2019n\u0131n (BoJ) faiz art\u0131r\u0131mlar\u0131n\u0131 \u0131l\u0131ml\u0131 bir tempoda s\u00fcrd\u00fcrmesi gerekti\u011fini s\u00f6yledi.<\/p>\n

ABD dolar\u0131, \u00e7ar\u015famba g\u00fcnk\u00fc verilerin ISM \u0130malat PMI\u2019\u0131n haziranda 54\u2019ten 53,3\u2019e geriledi\u011fini, \u00d6denen Fiyatlar Endeksi\u2019nin ise 82,1\u2019den 73\u2019e d\u00fc\u015ft\u00fc\u011f\u00fcn\u00fc g\u00f6stermesinin ard\u0131ndan zay\u0131flad\u0131; per\u015fembe erken saatlerde Dolar Endeksi (DXY) 101,00\u2019e do\u011fru sarkarak yakla\u015f\u0131k %0,4 geriledi. Fed Ba\u015fkan\u0131 Kevin Warsh ECB Forumu\u2019nda konu\u015ftu; FXS Speechtracker puan\u0131 5,6\/10 olurken %2 enflasyon hedefini yineledi. Alt\u0131n \u00e7ar\u015famba g\u00fcn\u00fc 4.100 dolar\u0131n \u00fczerine \u00e7\u0131kt\u0131ktan sonra hafif art\u0131da dengelendi; XAU\/USD 4.050 dolar\u0131n \u00fczerinde tutundu. Sterlin y\u00fckseldi; GBP\/USD, BOE Ba\u015fkan\u0131 Bailey\u2019nin Speechtracker \u00f6l\u00e7\u00fcm\u00fcn\u00fcn 6\/10 (tarihsel ortalama 4,7\/10) gelmesinin ard\u0131ndan 1,3350\u2019ye do\u011fru %0,5\u2019ten fazla art\u0131dayd\u0131. EUR\/USD, Euro B\u00f6lgesi HICP enflasyonunun haziranda %3,2\u2019den %2,8\u2019e yava\u015flayarak %3\u2019l\u00fck beklentinin alt\u0131nda kalmas\u0131 sonras\u0131 1,1400\u2019\u0131n \u00fczerinde i\u015flem g\u00f6rd\u00fc.<\/p>\n

USD\/JPY\u2019de Oynakl\u0131k ve ABD Verilerinin Etkisi<\/h3>\n

USD\/JPY\u2019de 161,50\u2019nin alt\u0131na do\u011fru ani d\u00fc\u015f\u00fc\u015f, d\u00f6viz m\u00fcdahalesine g\u00fc\u00e7l\u00fc bi\u00e7imde i\u015faret ediyor ve bu paritede y\u00f6n tahminiyle i\u015flem yapmay\u0131 riskli hale getiriyor. 2024 bahar\u0131nda da Japon yetkililerin yeni savunmak i\u00e7in 60 milyar dolar\u0131n \u00fczerinde harcama yapt\u0131\u011f\u0131 d\u00f6nemde benzer sert hareketler g\u00f6r\u00fclm\u00fc\u015ft\u00fc. Bu ge\u00e7mi\u015f, oynakl\u0131\u011f\u0131n artmas\u0131n\u0131 beklememiz ve net bir y\u00f6n \u00fczerine bahis oynamaktansa bant hareketini opsiyonlarla de\u011ferlendirmeyi d\u00fc\u015f\u00fcnmemiz gerekti\u011fine i\u015faret ediyor.<\/p>\n

\u015eimdi t\u00fcm g\u00f6zler bug\u00fcnk\u00fc Tar\u0131m D\u0131\u015f\u0131 \u0130stihdam verisinde olmal\u0131; zira bu veri ABD dolar\u0131n\u0131n bir sonraki hamlesini belirleyecek. ISM \u00d6denen Fiyatlar endeksinin 73\u2019e gerilemesi, enflasyonist bask\u0131lar\u0131n azald\u0131\u011f\u0131na i\u015faret ediyor; bu da beklentiden zay\u0131f bir istihdam verisine zemin haz\u0131rlayabilir. 2024 May\u0131s raporunda g\u00f6rd\u00fc\u011f\u00fcm\u00fcz 272 binlik beklenmedik s\u0131\u00e7ramaya benzer \u015fekilde, istihdamda bir \u201csapma\u201d \u00f6nemli fiyatlamalara yol a\u00e7abilir; bug\u00fcn zay\u0131f bir veri de Dolar Endeksi\u2019ni 101,00\u2019in daha alt\u0131na itebilir.<\/p>\n

Merkez Bankas\u0131 Ayr\u0131\u015fmas\u0131 ve Alt\u0131nda Dayan\u0131kl\u0131l\u0131k<\/h3>\n

Baz\u0131 so\u011fuma sinyali veren verilere ra\u011fmen Fed, kamuoyu \u00f6n\u00fcnde %2 enflasyon hedefine ba\u011fl\u0131 kalmaya devam ediyor; Ba\u015fkan Warsh herhangi bir ileriye d\u00f6n\u00fck y\u00f6nlendirmeyi (forward guidance) reddediyor. Bu durum, son veriler ile ilan edilen politika aras\u0131nda bir gerilim yaratarak USD i\u015flemlerinde belirsizli\u011fi art\u0131r\u0131yor. Bu ayr\u0131\u015fma, faiz indirimlerine kar\u015f\u0131 kendi \u201cs\u0131k\u0131\u201d duru\u015fundan faydalanan GBP\/USD gibi paritelerde f\u0131rsatlar g\u00f6rmemizin de nedeni.<\/p>\n

En net i\u015flemin, merkez bankas\u0131 politika ayr\u0131\u015fmas\u0131na, \u00f6zellikle de Birle\u015fik Krall\u0131k ile Avrupa aras\u0131ndaki ayr\u0131\u015fmaya dayand\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 d\u00fc\u015f\u00fcn\u00fcyoruz. BOE yak\u0131n vadede faiz indirimlerini d\u0131\u015flarken, Euro B\u00f6lgesi enflasyonu %3,2\u2019den %2,8\u2019e geriledi. Bu tablo, temellerin euroya kar\u015f\u0131 sterlini desteklemesi nedeniyle, opsiyonlar kullan\u0131larak uzun GBP\/EUR pozisyonu olu\u015fturulmas\u0131n\u0131 destekliyor.<\/p>\n

Alt\u0131n\u0131n, \u015fahin bir Fed\u2019e ra\u011fmen 4.050 dolar\u0131n \u00fczerinde g\u00fc\u00e7l\u00fc kalmas\u0131, altta yatan talebin \u00f6nemli bir g\u00f6stergesi. Bu \u015fa\u015f\u0131rt\u0131c\u0131 de\u011fil; zira k\u00fcresel merkez bankalar\u0131 2022 ve 2023\u2019te rezervlerine 1.000 tonun \u00fczerinde alt\u0131n ekleyerek fiyatlar i\u00e7in sa\u011flam bir taban olu\u015fturdu. Ge\u00e7ici olarak g\u00fc\u00e7lenen dolar\u0131n yarataca\u011f\u0131 geri \u00e7ekilmeler, alt\u0131n al\u0131m (call) opsiyonlar\u0131 i\u00e7in potansiyel f\u0131rsatlar olarak de\u011ferlendirilmeli.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Hemen i\u015flem yapmaya ba\u015flay\u0131n \u2014 ger\u00e7ek VT Markets hesab\u0131n\u0131z\u0131 olu\u015fturmak i\u00e7in buraya<\/a> t\u0131klay\u0131n.<\/b>\n\n<\/p>","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

USD\/JPY Avrupa\u2019da sert dalgalanarak 162,50\u2019den 161,00\u2019e \u00e7ak\u0131ld\u0131; m\u00fcdahale s\u00f6ylentileri g\u00fc\u00e7lendi. G\u00f6zler bug\u00fcn ABD Tar\u0131m D\u0131\u015f\u0131 \u0130stihdam\u2019da. Dolar zay\u0131f, alt\u0131n diren\u00e7li; sterlin-euro ayr\u0131\u015fmas\u0131 f\u0131rsat sunuyor.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":87,"featured_media":50148,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[71],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-50489","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-live-updates"],"acf":{"acf_article_selection_author":null},"aioseo_notices":[],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/50489","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/87"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=50489"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/50489\/revisions"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/50148"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=50489"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=50489"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=50489"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}