{"id":50485,"date":"2026-07-02T09:59:20","date_gmt":"2026-07-02T09:59:20","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/uncategorized\/fransanin-mayis-butce-acigi-933-milyar-avroya-genisledi-oat-tahvil-getirileri-ve-riskli-varliklar-uzerindeki-baski-artiyor\/"},"modified":"2026-07-02T09:59:20","modified_gmt":"2026-07-02T09:59:20","slug":"fransanin-mayis-butce-acigi-933-milyar-avroya-genisledi-oat-tahvil-getirileri-ve-riskli-varliklar-uzerindeki-baski-artiyor","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/live-updates\/fransanin-mayis-butce-acigi-933-milyar-avroya-genisledi-oat-tahvil-getirileri-ve-riskli-varliklar-uzerindeki-baski-artiyor\/","title":{"rendered":"Fransa\u2019n\u0131n May\u0131s B\u00fct\u00e7e A\u00e7\u0131\u011f\u0131 93,3 Milyar Avroya Geni\u015fledi; OAT Tahvil Getirileri ve Riskli Varl\u0131klar \u00dczerindeki Bask\u0131 Art\u0131yor"},"content":{"rendered":"

Fransa\u2019n\u0131n merkezi y\u00f6netim b\u00fct\u00e7e dengesi May\u0131s ay\u0131nda 93,3 milyar euro a\u00e7\u0131k verdi; \u00f6nceki d\u00f6nemde 69,6 milyar euro olan a\u00e7\u0131k b\u00f6ylece artarak y\u0131l\u0131n ge\u00e7 ilkbahar\u0131na ilerlerken d\u00f6neme ili\u015fkin b\u00fct\u00e7e a\u00e7\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 geni\u015fletti. Bu bozulma, devlet gelirleri ile harcamalar\u0131 aras\u0131ndaki fark\u0131n b\u00fcy\u00fcd\u00fc\u011f\u00fcne i\u015faret ediyor.<\/p>\n

Son veri, daha \u00f6nceki -69,6 milyar euroluk okuma ile kar\u015f\u0131la\u015ft\u0131r\u0131ld\u0131\u011f\u0131nda takvim y\u0131l\u0131n\u0131n bu noktas\u0131nda k\u00fcm\u00fclatif a\u00e7\u0131\u011f\u0131n daha da derinle\u015fti\u011fini g\u00f6steriyor. Veriler, May\u0131s ay\u0131 itibar\u0131yla kamu maliyesinin anl\u0131k g\u00f6r\u00fcn\u00fcm\u00fcn\u00fc sunarken, dengenin negatif b\u00f6lgede kalmaya devam etti\u011fi g\u00f6r\u00fcl\u00fcyor.<\/p>\n

Mali Bozulma ve Tahvil Piyasas\u0131na Etkileri<\/h3>\n

May\u0131s b\u00fct\u00e7e verilerinde a\u00e7\u0131\u011f\u0131n 93,3 milyar euroya geni\u015flemesi, Fransa\u2019n\u0131n bozulmakta olan mali g\u00f6r\u00fcn\u00fcm\u00fcne ili\u015fkin g\u00f6r\u00fc\u015f\u00fcm\u00fcz\u00fc peki\u015ftiriyor. Bu e\u011filim, yak\u0131n vadede daha fazla kamu bor\u00e7lanmas\u0131n\u0131n ka\u00e7\u0131n\u0131lmaz oldu\u011funu d\u00fc\u015f\u00fcnd\u00fcr\u00fcyor. Bu nedenle, Fransa devlet tahvili getirileri \u00fczerinde yukar\u0131 y\u00f6nl\u00fc bask\u0131 bekliyoruz.<\/p>\n

Bu g\u00f6r\u00fcn\u00fcm \u00e7er\u00e7evesinde, getiriler y\u00fckselirken fiyatlar\u0131n d\u00fc\u015fece\u011fi beklentisiyle Frans\u0131z OAT vadeli kontratlar\u0131nda k\u0131sa pozisyonlar\u0131 de\u011ferlendiriyoruz. 2024 ortas\u0131nda siyasi \u00e7alkant\u0131 s\u0131ras\u0131nda s\u0131\u00e7rad\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 g\u00f6rd\u00fc\u011f\u00fcm\u00fcz Fransa-Almanya 10 y\u0131ll\u0131k tahvil spreadindeki geni\u015flemenin tekrar\u0131n\u0131 bekliyoruz. S\u00f6z konusu fark \u015fu anda yakla\u015f\u0131k 75 baz puan seviyesinde; ancak daha y\u00fcksek seviyelerin test edilebilece\u011fini \u00f6ng\u00f6r\u00fcyoruz.<\/p>\n

Daha Geni\u015f Piyasa Riskleri ve Korunma Stratejileri<\/h3>\n

Kamu maliyesi \u00fczerindeki bask\u0131n\u0131n hisse piyasas\u0131na da yans\u0131yarak CAC 40 endeksi \u00fczerinde bask\u0131 yaratmas\u0131 muhtemel. Bu nedenle, olas\u0131 bir geri \u00e7ekilmeye pozisyon almak i\u00e7in do\u011frudan bir ara\u00e7 olarak CAC 40 \u00fczerine sat\u0131m (put) opsiyonlar\u0131 al\u0131m\u0131n\u0131 de\u011ferlendiriyoruz. Bu strateji, b\u00fcy\u00fcmeyi ve \u015firket k\u00e2rl\u0131l\u0131klar\u0131n\u0131 bask\u0131layabilecek mali konsolidasyon \u00f6nlemlerine kar\u015f\u0131 korunma sa\u011flar.<\/p>\n

Euro B\u00f6lgesi i\u00e7inde \u00fclke bazl\u0131 bu zay\u0131fl\u0131k, \u00f6zellikle ABD dolar\u0131 kar\u015f\u0131s\u0131nda euro \u00fczerinde de bask\u0131 yaratabilir. Halihaz\u0131rda 1,0850 civar\u0131nda seyreden EUR\/USD paritesi, yat\u0131r\u0131mc\u0131lar\u0131n ekonomiler aras\u0131nda ayr\u0131\u015fmaya gitmesiyle a\u015fa\u011f\u0131 y\u00f6nl\u00fc bask\u0131 g\u00f6rebilir. EUR\/USD vadeli i\u015flemlerinde k\u0131sa pozisyon i\u00e7in f\u0131rsatlar\u0131 izleyece\u011fiz.<\/p>\n

Ayr\u0131ca, bir di\u011fer kredi notu indirimi riskini de g\u00f6z \u00f6n\u00fcnde bulundurmak gerekiyor; S&P, benzer mali endi\u015feler nedeniyle 2024\u2019te Fransa\u2019n\u0131n notunu \u201cAA-\u201d seviyesine indirmi\u015fti. Fransa\u2019n\u0131n 5 y\u0131ll\u0131k kredi temerr\u00fct takas\u0131 (CDS) priminin \u2014\u015fu anda yakla\u015f\u0131k 40 baz puan\u2014 y\u00fckselmesi, piyasa endi\u015fesinin artt\u0131\u011f\u0131na i\u015faret edecektir. Artan kredi riskine kar\u015f\u0131 korunma amac\u0131yla CDS kontratlar\u0131 sat\u0131n alman\u0131n de\u011ferli olabilece\u011fini d\u00fc\u015f\u00fcn\u00fcyoruz.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Hemen i\u015flem yapmaya ba\u015flay\u0131n \u2014 ger\u00e7ek VT Markets hesab\u0131n\u0131z\u0131 olu\u015fturmak i\u00e7in buraya<\/a> t\u0131klay\u0131n.<\/b>\n\n<\/p>","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

Fransa\u2019da May\u0131s\u2019ta merkezi b\u00fct\u00e7e a\u00e7\u0131\u011f\u0131 93,3 milyar euroya f\u0131rlad\u0131: mali g\u00f6r\u00fcn\u00fcm bozuluyor. OAT getirilerinde y\u00fckseli\u015f, Fransa-Almanya spreadinde geni\u015fleme, CAC 40\u2019da bask\u0131 ve EUR\/USD\u2019de a\u015fa\u011f\u0131 y\u00f6n riski art\u0131yor.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":87,"featured_media":50071,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[71],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-50485","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-live-updates"],"acf":{"acf_article_selection_author":null},"aioseo_notices":[],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/50485","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/87"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=50485"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/50485\/revisions"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/50071"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=50485"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=50485"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=50485"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}