Alt\u0131n (XAU\/USD) \u00c7ar\u015famba g\u00fcn\u00fc yakla\u015f\u0131k %2 y\u00fckselerek 3.960 dolardan toparlanmas\u0131n\u0131n ard\u0131ndan 4.083 dolara \u00e7\u0131kt\u0131; ABD Dolar\u0131 g\u00fc\u00e7l\u00fc seyrini korurken ve Hazine tahvil getirileri y\u00fcksek seviyelerde kal\u0131rken. DXY endeksi %0,18 art\u0131\u015fla 101,35\u2019e y\u00fckselirken, 10 y\u0131ll\u0131k ABD tahvil faizi 4,465% seviyesinde yatay kald\u0131. ABD verileri kar\u0131\u015f\u0131k sinyaller verdi: Haziran ADP \u00d6zel Sekt\u00f6r \u0130stihdam De\u011fi\u015fimi 98 bin ile May\u0131s\u2019taki 122 binin ve 113 binlik beklentinin alt\u0131nda ger\u00e7ekle\u015fti. Challenger i\u015ften \u00e7\u0131karma planlar\u0131 ise %53 d\u00fc\u015ferek 97.006\u2019dan 45.849\u2019a geriledi; i\u015fverenler toplam 443.604 i\u015ften \u00e7\u0131karma duyurusu yapt\u0131 ve bu rakam ge\u00e7en y\u0131l\u0131n ayn\u0131 d\u00f6nemine g\u00f6re %40 daha d\u00fc\u015f\u00fck oldu. ISM \u0130malat PMI, May\u0131s\u2019a g\u00f6re gerileyerek 53,3\u2019e indi ve 54\u2019l\u00fck beklentinin alt\u0131nda kald\u0131; buna kar\u015f\u0131n \u00d6denen Fiyatlar Endeksi 82,1\u2019den 73\u2019e d\u00fc\u015ft\u00fc.<\/p>\n\n
ABD-\u0130ran aras\u0131nda bir mutabakat zapt\u0131 (MOU) sonras\u0131 jeopolitik risk primi gerilerken, H\u00fcrm\u00fcz Bo\u011faz\u0131 g\u00fcndemiyle Doha\u2019da g\u00f6r\u00fc\u015fmelerin yeniden ba\u015flad\u0131\u011f\u0131 ve n\u00fckleer m\u00fczakereler i\u00e7in 60 g\u00fcnl\u00fck bir \u00e7er\u00e7eve \u00fczerinde \u00e7al\u0131\u015f\u0131ld\u0131\u011f\u0131 belirtildi. Piyasan\u0131n oda\u011f\u0131 Per\u015fembe g\u00fcnk\u00fc Tar\u0131m D\u0131\u015f\u0131 \u0130stihdam (NFP) verisine kay\u0131yor; 110 bin art\u0131\u015f beklenirken, \u0130\u015fsizlik Oran\u0131\u2019n\u0131n %4,3\u2019te sabit kalaca\u011f\u0131 \u00f6ng\u00f6r\u00fcl\u00fcyor. Teknik tarafta alt\u0131n 4.100 dolar\u0131n alt\u0131nda bask\u0131 alt\u0131nda kalmay\u0131 s\u00fcrd\u00fcr\u00fcyor; yukar\u0131 y\u00f6nl\u00fc seviyeler 4.220 dolar ve 4.280\u20134.300 band\u0131 civar\u0131nda diren\u00e7, ard\u0131ndan 50 g\u00fcnl\u00fck SMA olan 4.425 dolar olarak \u00f6ne \u00e7\u0131k\u0131yor. Destekler ise 3.941 dolar, devam\u0131nda 3.900, 3.886 ve 3.500 dolar.<\/p>\n\n
Alt\u0131n, g\u00fc\u00e7l\u00fc ABD dolar\u0131 ile so\u011fuyan ekonomiye dair i\u015faretler aras\u0131nda s\u0131k\u0131\u015fm\u0131\u015f durumda oldu\u011fundan belirgin bir oynakl\u0131\u011fa haz\u0131rlan\u0131yoruz. 98 binlik zay\u0131f ADP istihdam verisi, yar\u0131n a\u00e7\u0131klanacak resmi Tar\u0131m D\u0131\u015f\u0131 \u0130stihdam (NFP) verisinin \u00f6nemini daha da art\u0131rd\u0131. Bu NFP verisi, \u00f6n\u00fcm\u00fczdeki haftalar i\u00e7in y\u00f6n tayin edici olabilir.<\/p>\n\n
Fed kamuoyu \u00f6n\u00fcnde \u015fahin duru\u015funa ba\u011fl\u0131l\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 korusa da, t\u00fcrev piyasalar\u0131nda bu g\u00f6r\u00fc\u015fe y\u00f6nelik sorgulaman\u0131n ba\u015flad\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 g\u00f6r\u00fcyoruz. CME FedWatch Tool, bu y\u0131l ilave bir faiz art\u0131\u015f\u0131 olas\u0131l\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131n ge\u00e7en hafta %60\u2019tan %45\u2019e geriledi\u011fine i\u015faret ediyor. 110 bin beklentisinin alt\u0131nda kalacak zay\u0131f bir NFP, faiz patikas\u0131 beklentilerinde belirgin bir yeniden fiyatlamay\u0131 tetikleyerek alt\u0131n lehine bir tablo yaratabilir.<\/p>\n\n
K\u0131sa vadede oda\u011f\u0131m\u0131z 4.100 dolar seviyesi; buras\u0131 g\u00fc\u00e7l\u00fc bir diren\u00e7 olarak \u00e7al\u0131\u015f\u0131yor. Zay\u0131f bir istihdam verisiyle olas\u0131 bir k\u0131r\u0131lmay\u0131 oynamak i\u00e7in 4.200 dolar\u0131n \u00fczerinde kullan\u0131m fiyat\u0131na sahip k\u0131sa vadeli al\u0131m (call) opsiyonlar\u0131n\u0131 de\u011ferlendirmeyi d\u00fc\u015f\u00fcn\u00fcyoruz. Buna kar\u015f\u0131l\u0131k, \u00f6zellikle g\u00fc\u00e7l\u00fc NFP verisiyle 4.100\u2019\u00fcn a\u015f\u0131lamamas\u0131, 3.900 dolardaki destek seviyesini hedefleyen sat\u0131m (put) opsiyonlar\u0131 i\u00e7in uygun bir giri\u015f sinyali verebilir.<\/p>\n\n
Altta yatan fiziki talebin g\u00fc\u00e7l\u00fc kald\u0131\u011f\u0131na ve fiyatlar i\u00e7in bir taban olu\u015fturdu\u011funa dikkat \u00e7ekiyoruz. D\u00fcnya Alt\u0131n Konseyi\u2019nin (WGC) 2026 2\u00c7 verilerine g\u00f6re merkez bankalar\u0131 rezervlerine 228 metrik ton daha alt\u0131n ekledi; \u00c7in Halk Bankas\u0131 (PBoC) \u00f6ne \u00e7\u0131kan al\u0131c\u0131lardan biri oldu. ABD-\u0130ran mutabakat\u0131 gerilimi ge\u00e7ici olarak azaltm\u0131\u015f olsa da, g\u00f6r\u00fc\u015fmelerde olas\u0131 bir k\u0131r\u0131lma jeopolitik primi h\u0131zl\u0131 \u015fekilde yeniden g\u00fcndeme getirebilir.<\/p>\n\n
Bu tablo, ekonomik zay\u0131fl\u0131\u011f\u0131n ilk sinyallerinin \u015fahin bir Fed ile \u00e7eli\u015fti\u011fi ve sert d\u00f6n\u00fc\u015flerin ya\u015fand\u0131\u011f\u0131 2018-2019 d\u00f6nemini hat\u0131rlat\u0131yor. Cboe Alt\u0131n Oynakl\u0131k Endeksi (GVZ) \u015fimdiden 17,8\u2019e y\u00fckseldi; NFP a\u00e7\u0131klamas\u0131 etraf\u0131nda daha da artmas\u0131n\u0131 bekliyoruz. Y\u00f6n konusunda net olmayan ancak b\u00fcy\u00fck bir hareket bekleyen yat\u0131r\u0131mc\u0131lara, straddle veya strangle gibi opsiyon stratejilerini de\u011ferlendirmelerini \u00f6neriyoruz.<\/p>\n\n\n\n