Sterlin, ABD verilerinin beklentiden yumu\u015fak gelmesinin Dolar\u2019\u0131n genel g\u00fcc\u00fcn\u00fc s\u0131n\u0131rlamas\u0131yla %0,14 y\u00fckseldi; GBP\/USD, 1,3219\u2019u g\u00f6rd\u00fckten sonra 1,3277 seviyesinde i\u015flem g\u00f6rd\u00fc. ABD Merkez Bankas\u0131 (Fed) Ba\u015fkan\u0131 Kevin Warsh, Fed\u2019in ileriye d\u00f6n\u00fck y\u00f6nlendirme (forward guidance) sunmayaca\u011f\u0131n\u0131 yineledi ve enflasyonun %2 hedefinin \u00fczerinde kalmaya devam etti\u011fini, i\u015fg\u00fcc\u00fc piyasas\u0131n\u0131n ise istikrarl\u0131 oldu\u011funu s\u00f6yledi. ABD Dolar Endeksi a\u00e7\u0131klamalar sonras\u0131 fazla de\u011fi\u015fmeyerek %0,17 art\u0131\u015fla 101,34 seviyesinde kal\u0131rken, piyasalar kar\u0131\u015f\u0131k ekonomik sinyalleri tartt\u0131.<\/p>\n
Haziran ay\u0131 ADP \u00f6zel sekt\u00f6r istihdam\u0131 113 binlik beklentiye kar\u015f\u0131 98 bin olarak ger\u00e7ekle\u015fti ve May\u0131s\u2019taki 122 binin alt\u0131nda kald\u0131. Challenger i\u015ften \u00e7\u0131karma duyurular\u0131 ise 97.006\u2019dan 45.849\u2019a gerileyerek %53 d\u00fc\u015ft\u00fc. \u0130\u015fverenler toplam 443.604 i\u015ften \u00e7\u0131karma a\u00e7\u0131klad\u0131; bu rakam y\u0131ll\u0131k bazda %40 azald\u0131. Odak \u015fimdi Per\u015fembe g\u00fcn\u00fc a\u00e7\u0131klanacak Tar\u0131m D\u0131\u015f\u0131 \u0130stihdam (NFP) verisine \u00e7evrildi: istihdam art\u0131\u015f\u0131n\u0131n 110 bin, i\u015fsizlik oran\u0131n\u0131n ise %4,3\u2019te sabit kalmas\u0131 bekleniyor. Birle\u015fik Krall\u0131k\u2019ta Keir Starmer\u2019\u0131n istifas\u0131n\u0131n ard\u0131ndan mali kurallara ba\u011fl\u0131 kal\u0131naca\u011f\u0131 taahh\u00fcd\u00fc siyasi riski s\u0131n\u0131rlarken, swap piyasas\u0131 2026\u2019da en az bir \u0130ngiltere Merkez Bankas\u0131 (BoE) faiz art\u0131\u015f\u0131 fiyatl\u0131yor. Teknik g\u00f6r\u00fcn\u00fcmde GBP\/USD, 1,3415\u2019teki SMA k\u00fcmesinin alt\u0131nda kalmaya devam ederken, diren\u00e7 1,3524 civar\u0131nda; RSI yakla\u015f\u0131k 44 seviyesinde ve destek 1,3159 yak\u0131n\u0131nda.<\/p>\n
Bu haftan\u0131n en kritik g\u00fcndemi olmas\u0131 nedeniyle yakla\u015fan ABD Tar\u0131m D\u0131\u015f\u0131 \u0130stihdam (NFP) raporuna temkinli yakla\u015f\u0131yoruz. 98 binlik zay\u0131f ADP \u00f6zel sekt\u00f6r istihdam verisi olumsuz bir ton olu\u015ftursa da, ge\u00e7mi\u015fte ADP ile NFP aras\u0131nda belirgin ayr\u0131\u015fmalar g\u00f6r\u00fcld\u00fc. \u00d6rne\u011fin 2024\u2019\u00fcn ba\u015f\u0131ndaki tarihsel veriler, NFP\u2019nin defalarca yukar\u0131 y\u00f6nl\u00fc s\u00fcrpriz yapt\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 g\u00f6sterdi; bu nedenle Dolar g\u00fcc\u00fcn\u00fc yeniden canland\u0131rabilecek beklentiden g\u00fc\u00e7l\u00fc bir veriye kar\u015f\u0131 haz\u0131rl\u0131kl\u0131 olunmal\u0131.<\/p>\n
Fed, bir-iki zay\u0131f veri noktas\u0131ndan etkilenmeyece\u011fini, oda\u011f\u0131n\u0131 enflasyona s\u0131k\u0131 bi\u00e7imde koruyaca\u011f\u0131n\u0131 i\u015faret ediyor. Fed\u2019in tercih etti\u011fi enflasyon g\u00f6stergesi olan y\u0131ll\u0131k \u00e7ekirdek PCE fiyat endeksi son veride %2,8\u2019de kal\u0131rken, yetkililerin \u015fahin duru\u015ftan \u015fimdilik uzakla\u015fmas\u0131 i\u00e7in s\u0131n\u0131rl\u0131 gerek\u00e7e bulunuyor. Piyasan\u0131n, enflasyon ikna edici bi\u00e7imde kontrol alt\u0131na al\u0131nana kadar faizi y\u00fcksek tutma konusundaki Fed kararl\u0131l\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 hafife al\u0131yor olabilece\u011fini d\u00fc\u015f\u00fcn\u00fcyoruz.<\/p>\n
\u0130ngiltere taraf\u0131nda yeni liderlik alt\u0131nda siyasi istikrar olumlu olsa da, Sterlin\u2019e belirgin bir destek sa\u011flam\u0131yor. Daha b\u00fcy\u00fck belirleyici BoE cephesi: \u00f6zellikle son \u0130ngiltere T\u00dcFE verilerinin enflasyonun merkez bankas\u0131n\u0131n %2,0 hedefine geriledi\u011fine i\u015faret etmesinin ard\u0131ndan, faiz art\u0131\u015f\u0131 beklentileri kayda de\u011fer \u00f6l\u00e7\u00fcde zay\u0131flad\u0131. \u015eahin bir Fed ile daha n\u00f6tr bir BoE aras\u0131ndaki bu para politikas\u0131 ayr\u0131\u015fmas\u0131, GBP\/USD paritesindeki anlaml\u0131 y\u00fckseli\u015fleri muhtemelen s\u0131n\u0131rlayacakt\u0131r.<\/p>\n
GBP\/USD\u2019nin 1,3415 hareketli ortalamas\u0131n\u0131n alt\u0131nda zorland\u0131\u011f\u0131 negatif teknik zeminde, mevcut g\u00fc\u00e7lenmeyi sat\u0131\u015f f\u0131rsat\u0131 olarak g\u00f6r\u00fcyoruz. T\u00fcrev yat\u0131r\u0131mc\u0131lar\u0131 a\u00e7\u0131s\u0131ndan NFP kaynakl\u0131 y\u00fcksek olay riski, put opsiyonu al\u0131m\u0131n\u0131 cazip bir strateji haline getiriyor. Bu yakla\u015f\u0131m, ABD verisinin yeniden beklentileri a\u015fmas\u0131 durumunda potansiyel kay\u0131plar\u0131 s\u0131n\u0131rlarken, 1,3159 destek seviyesine do\u011fru olas\u0131 bir geri \u00e7ekilmeye pozisyon alma imk\u00e2n\u0131 sa\u011fl\u0131yor.<\/p>\n\n\n\n