Alt\u0131n, \u00c7ar\u015famba g\u00fcn\u00fc 4.000 dolar seviyesinin yeniden \u00fczerine \u00e7\u0131kt\u0131. ABD Dolar\u0131, Fed Ba\u015fkan\u0131 Kevin Warsh\u2019\u0131n a\u00e7\u0131klamalar\u0131 ve zay\u0131f ABD verileri sonras\u0131 geriledi. XAU\/USD, Sal\u0131 g\u00fcn\u00fc g\u00f6r\u00fclen yedi ay\u0131n dibi 3.941 dolardan toparlanarak 4.097 dolar civar\u0131nda i\u015flem g\u00f6r\u00fcrken, daha s\u0131k\u0131 para politikas\u0131na y\u00f6nelik beklentiler y\u00fckseli\u015fi s\u0131n\u0131rlamay\u0131 s\u00fcrd\u00fcrd\u00fc. Sintra\u2019daki ECB Forumu\u2019nda konu\u015fan Warsh, Fed\u2019in ileriye d\u00f6n\u00fck y\u00f6nlendirme (forward guidance) vermeyece\u011fini s\u00f6yledi ve enflasyon risklerinin geriledi\u011fini ekledi. ADP verisine g\u00f6re Haziran\u2019da \u00f6zel sekt\u00f6r istihdam\u0131 98 bin artt\u0131; beklenti 113 bin, May\u0131s verisi ise 122 bindi. ISM \u0130malat PMI da 54,0\u2019tan 53,3\u2019e gerileyerek 54,0 tahmininin alt\u0131nda kald\u0131; piyasalar \u015fimdi Per\u015fembe g\u00fcnk\u00fc Tar\u0131m D\u0131\u015f\u0131 \u0130stihdam raporuna odaklanm\u0131\u015f durumda.<\/p>\n
Metal, 2013\u2019ten bu yana en sert \u00e7eyreklik d\u00fc\u015f\u00fc\u015f\u00fcn\u00fc kaydetti ve 2025\u2019te %67 y\u00fckseli\u015fin de dahil oldu\u011fu iki y\u0131ll\u0131k ralli sonras\u0131nda, Ocak ay\u0131ndaki yakla\u015f\u0131k 5.600 dolarl\u0131k zirvenin yakla\u015f\u0131k %28 alt\u0131nda i\u015flem g\u00f6r\u00fcyor. ABD-\u0130ran sava\u015f\u0131yla ba\u011flant\u0131l\u0131 enerji kaynakl\u0131 enflasyon \u015foku enflasyonu Fed\u2019in %2 hedefinin iki kat\u0131ndan fazlas\u0131na ta\u015f\u0131rken, faiz beklentileri de de\u011fi\u015fti; CME FedWatch, Eyl\u00fcl\u2019de faiz art\u0131\u015f\u0131 olas\u0131l\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 %67 olarak fiyatl\u0131yor. Fiziki talep de zay\u0131flad\u0131: IBJA, Hint hanehalklar\u0131n\u0131n Nisan\u2013Haziran d\u00f6neminde yakla\u015f\u0131k 50 ton eski alt\u0131n satt\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131, bunun y\u0131ll\u0131k bazda %43 art\u0131\u015fa i\u015faret etti\u011fini bildirdi; ayr\u0131ca Hindistan May\u0131s ay\u0131nda g\u00fcmr\u00fck vergisini %6\u2019dan %15\u2019e y\u00fckseltti. Teknik seviyelerde 20 g\u00fcnl\u00fck SMA\u2019n\u0131n 4.184 dolar civar\u0131nda oldu\u011fu, 3.926 ve 3.800 dolar\u0131n destek; 4.184,59 dolar, 4.300 dolar ve yakla\u015f\u0131k 4.442 dolar\u0131n diren\u00e7 oldu\u011fu belirtiliyor; RSI 40\u2019a yak\u0131n seyrederken MACD negatif b\u00f6lgede kal\u0131yor. D\u00fcnya Alt\u0131n Konseyi verilerine g\u00f6re merkez bankalar\u0131 2022\u2019de yakla\u015f\u0131k 70 milyar dolar de\u011ferinde 1.136 ton alt\u0131n ekledi.<\/p>\n
4.000 dolar \u00fczerindeki bu tepkiyi, ilave zay\u0131fl\u0131k y\u00f6n\u00fcnde pozisyon almak i\u00e7in potansiyel bir f\u0131rsat olarak de\u011ferlendiriyoruz. Fed Ba\u015fkan\u0131 Warsh\u2019\u0131n enflasyon risklerinin azald\u0131\u011f\u0131na dair yorumlar\u0131 k\u0131sa s\u00fcreli bir destek sa\u011flasa da, genel piyasa duyarl\u0131l\u0131\u011f\u0131 h\u00e2l\u00e2 faiz art\u0131\u015f\u0131 taraf\u0131na e\u011fik. CME FedWatch Tool, Eyl\u00fcl\u2019e kadar faiz art\u0131\u015f\u0131 olas\u0131l\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131n \u00fc\u00e7te iki seviyesinde kald\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 g\u00f6steriyor; bu da alt\u0131ndaki anlaml\u0131 bir ralliyi s\u0131n\u0131rl\u0131yor.<\/p>\n
T\u00fcm g\u00f6zler, bu Per\u015fembe 2 Temmuz\u2019da a\u00e7\u0131klanacak Tar\u0131m D\u0131\u015f\u0131 \u0130stihdam raporunda. Reuters\u2019\u0131n anketine kat\u0131lan ekonomistler 130 binlik bir man\u015fet rakam \u00f6ng\u00f6r\u00fcyor; bunun belirgin \u015fekilde \u00fczerinde gelecek bir veri, Fed\u2019in faiz art\u0131\u015f\u0131 beklentilerini g\u00fc\u00e7lendirebilir ve alt\u0131n\u0131 a\u015fa\u011f\u0131 \u00e7ekebilir. Tersine, \u00e7ok zay\u0131f bir rapor \u015fahin anlat\u0131y\u0131 sorgulatabilir ve mevcut y\u00fckseli\u015fi uzatabilir.<\/p>\n
Bu \u00e7er\u00e7evede, 3.926 dolardaki destek seviyesinin alt\u0131nda kullan\u0131m fiyat\u0131na sahip put opsiyonlar\u0131 almay\u0131 de\u011ferlendiriyoruz. GVZ endeksiyle \u00f6l\u00e7\u00fclen alt\u0131n opsiyonlar\u0131ndaki ima edilen volatilite, tar\u0131m d\u0131\u015f\u0131 verisi \u00f6ncesinde 18,5\u2019e y\u00fckselerek piyasada sert bir hareket beklentisini yans\u0131t\u0131yor. Bu deste\u011fin k\u0131r\u0131lmas\u0131, 2025 sonlar\u0131ndan bu yana g\u00f6r\u00fclmeyen 3.800 dolar civar\u0131ndaki daha g\u00fc\u00e7l\u00fc taban\u0131n h\u0131zl\u0131 bi\u00e7imde hedeflenmesine yol a\u00e7abilir.<\/p>\n
\u00d6te yandan, istihdam verisi zay\u0131f gelirse 4.184 dolar diren\u00e7 b\u00f6lgesine do\u011fru bir s\u0131k\u0131\u015fma g\u00f6r\u00fclebilir. Bu s\u0131\u00e7ramay\u0131, alt\u0131n\u0131n 4.300 dolar gibi kritik diren\u00e7lerin \u00fczerine \u00e7\u0131kamamas\u0131 halinde kazan\u00e7 sa\u011flayacak call spread satarak de\u011ferlendirebiliriz. Bu strateji, ralliyi \u201cs\u00f6n\u00fcmleyerek\u201d s\u0131n\u0131rs\u0131z risk almadan getiri elde etmeyi sa\u011flar.<\/p>\n
Temel belirleyici enflasyon olmaya devam ediyor; son \u00e7ekirdek PCE verisi %4,3 ile Fed hedefinin belirgin \u015fekilde \u00fczerinde. Bu tablo, 2013\u2019te Fed s\u0131k\u0131la\u015fma beklentilerinin \u00e7ok y\u0131ll\u0131 y\u00fckseli\u015f sonras\u0131 alt\u0131nda sert sat\u0131\u015fa yol a\u00e7t\u0131\u011f\u0131 \u201ctaper tantrum\u201d d\u00f6nemini hat\u0131rlat\u0131yor. Doha\u2019daki ABD-\u0130ran g\u00f6r\u00fc\u015fmelerini izlesek de, do\u011frudan ileti\u015fimin olmamas\u0131 b\u00fcy\u00fck bir jeopolitik kataliz\u00f6r\u00fcn yak\u0131n vadede olas\u0131 olmad\u0131\u011f\u0131na i\u015faret ediyor.<\/p>\n\n\n\n