USD\/CHF \u00c7ar\u015famba g\u00fcn\u00fc \u00f6nceki kazan\u00e7lar\u0131n\u0131 geri verdi; 0,8117 ile zirve yapt\u0131ktan sonra 0,8086 civar\u0131nda i\u015flem g\u00f6rd\u00fc. ABD Dolar\u0131, ECB\u2019nin Sintra\u2019daki forumunda Fed Ba\u015fkan\u0131 Kevin Warsh\u2019\u0131n a\u00e7\u0131klamalar\u0131n\u0131n ard\u0131ndan yumu\u015fad\u0131. Warsh, Fed\u2019in ileriye d\u00f6n\u00fck y\u00f6nlendirme (forward guidance) vermeyece\u011fini ve \u201cyeni bir rota \u00e7izece\u011fini\u201d s\u00f6ylerken, enflasyon risklerinin de hafifledi\u011fini ekledi. ABD Dolar Endeksi (DXY) 101,27 civar\u0131nda, ge\u00e7en hafta g\u00f6r\u00fclen 101,80 seviyesinin hemen alt\u0131nda seyrederken; dolar\u0131n a\u015fa\u011f\u0131 y\u00f6n\u00fc, ABD\u2013\u0130ran diplomasisine ili\u015fkin s\u00fcren belirsizlik ve daha s\u0131k\u0131 para politikas\u0131na y\u00f6nelik istikrarl\u0131 beklentilerle s\u0131n\u0131rl\u0131 kald\u0131.<\/p>\n\n
ABD ile \u0130ran ge\u00e7en ay 60 g\u00fcnl\u00fck bir Mutabakat Muht\u0131ras\u0131\u2019nda (MoU) uzla\u015ft\u0131; ancak nihai anla\u015fmaya y\u00f6nelik ivme yava\u015f ilerliyor. El\u00e7iler Katar\u2019\u0131n Doha kentinde bulunuyor, fakat do\u011frudan g\u00f6r\u00fc\u015fmeler planlanm\u0131\u015f de\u011fil. Piyasalar CME FedWatch Tool\u2019a g\u00f6re Fed\u2019in Eyl\u00fcl gibi erken bir tarihte faiz art\u0131rma olas\u0131l\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 %67 olarak fiyatl\u0131yor; bu g\u00f6r\u00fcn\u00fcm, ABD T\u00dcFE enflasyonunun May\u0131s\u2019ta Fed\u2019in %2 hedefin\u0259 kar\u015f\u0131 %4,2\u2019ye y\u00fckselmesinin ard\u0131ndan daha da g\u00fc\u00e7lendi. Veri taraf\u0131nda, ADP \u00f6zel sekt\u00f6r istihdam\u0131 Haziran\u2019da 98 bin artt\u0131 (beklenti 113 bin, \u00f6nceki 122 bin). Odak, ISM \u0130malat PMI\u2019\u0131na ve Per\u015fembe g\u00fcnk\u00fc tar\u0131m d\u0131\u015f\u0131 istihdam (NFP) raporuna kayarken; \u0130svi\u00e7re\u2019de Perakende Sat\u0131\u015flar May\u0131s\u2019ta y\u0131ll\u0131k %3,5 artt\u0131 (Nisan %1,7; beklenti %0,8). G\u00fcndemde ayr\u0131ca \u0130svi\u00e7re T\u00dcFE\u2019si ve SNB Finansal \u0130stikrar Raporu bulunuyor.<\/p>\n\n
Fed\u2019den gelen karma sinyaller, \u015fahin faiz art\u0131r\u0131m\u0131 s\u00f6ylemi ile zay\u0131flayan istihdam verilerinin \u00e7eli\u015fmesi nedeniyle ABD Dolar\u0131 i\u00e7in gergin bir zemin olu\u015fturuyor. Bu haftaki Tar\u0131m D\u0131\u015f\u0131 \u0130stihdam (NFP) raporu, Eyl\u00fcl\u2019de faiz art\u0131r\u0131m\u0131n\u0131 ya teyit edecek ya da ciddi bi\u00e7imde sorgulatacak kritik etkinlik konumunda. Bu belirsizli\u011fin, yat\u0131r\u0131mc\u0131lar\u0131n y\u00f6netmesi gereken temel ko\u015ful oldu\u011funu d\u00fc\u015f\u00fcn\u00fcyoruz.<\/p>\n\n
NFP a\u00e7\u0131klamas\u0131n\u0131n ikili (binary) risk profili g\u00f6z \u00f6n\u00fcne al\u0131nd\u0131\u011f\u0131nda, \u015fu a\u015famada y\u00f6n tahmini yapmak yerine volatilite sat\u0131n alman\u0131n daha de\u011ferli oldu\u011funu g\u00f6r\u00fcyoruz. USD\/CHF \u00fczerinde straddle gibi, y\u00f6n ba\u011f\u0131ms\u0131z b\u00fcy\u00fck fiyat hareketinden kazan\u00e7 sa\u011flayan opsiyon stratejileri cazip g\u00f6r\u00fcn\u00fcyor. Cboe FX Volatilite Endeksi\u2019ne bak\u0131ld\u0131\u011f\u0131nda, ileriye d\u00f6n\u00fck kur volatilitesi bu haftaki kritik veriler \u00f6ncesinde son \u00fc\u00e7 ay\u0131n en y\u00fcksek seviyesine do\u011fru y\u00fckseldi.<\/p>\n\n
NFP verisinin g\u00fc\u00e7l\u00fc gelmesi, piyasan\u0131n Eyl\u00fcl\u2019de faiz art\u0131r\u0131m\u0131na verdi\u011fi %67 olas\u0131l\u0131\u011f\u0131 do\u011frular ve Dolar Endeksi\u2019ni 101,80 \u00fczerindeki yak\u0131n d\u00f6nem zirvelerine yeniden ta\u015f\u0131yabilir. Bu durumda, t\u00fcrev ara\u00e7larla daha g\u00fc\u00e7l\u00fc dolar y\u00f6n\u00fcnde pozisyon almay\u0131; USD\/CHF\u2019nin 0,8100 seviyesini yeniden test etmesini bekliyoruz. Tarihsel olarak, 2022-2023 s\u0131k\u0131la\u015fma d\u00f6ng\u00fcs\u00fcnde g\u00fc\u00e7l\u00fc NFP ger\u00e7ekle\u015fmeleri, istikrarl\u0131 dolar al\u0131m d\u00f6nemlerinin \u00f6nc\u00fcs\u00fc olmu\u015ftu.<\/p>\n\n
\u00d6te yandan, istihdam verisinde a\u015fa\u011f\u0131 y\u00f6nl\u00fc bir s\u00fcrpriz, faiz art\u0131r\u0131m\u0131 olas\u0131l\u0131klar\u0131n\u0131 sert bi\u00e7imde d\u00fc\u015f\u00fcrerek dolarda h\u0131zl\u0131 bir sat\u0131\u015f dalgas\u0131 yaratabilir. Bu hareket, g\u00fc\u00e7l\u00fc bir \u0130svi\u00e7re T\u00dcFE verisiyle Frank\u2019\u0131n destek bulmas\u0131 halinde daha da \u015fiddetlenebilir. Bu senaryoda USD\/CHF\u2019de 0,8050 destek seviyesinin a\u015fa\u011f\u0131 k\u0131r\u0131lmas\u0131 olduk\u00e7a olas\u0131 hale gelir.<\/p>\n\n
Jeopolitik cepheyi de izliyoruz; ABD-\u0130ran g\u00f6r\u00fc\u015fmelerindeki ilerleme eksikli\u011fi, g\u00fcvenli liman olarak dolara bir destek katman\u0131 sa\u011fl\u0131yor. Bu unsur, ekonomik veriler zay\u0131f gelse bile dolar\u0131n d\u00fc\u015f\u00fc\u015f\u00fcn\u00fc s\u0131n\u0131rlayabilir. Bu nedenle, olas\u0131 d\u00fc\u015f\u00fc\u015f (bearish) pozisyonlar dikkatle y\u00f6netilmeli; zira jeopolitik ba\u015fl\u0131klar kay\u0131plar\u0131 h\u0131zl\u0131 bi\u00e7imde tersine \u00e7evirebilir.<\/p>\n\n\n\n