OCBC, ABD dolar\u0131n\u0131n m\u00fctevaz\u0131 bir yukar\u0131 y\u00f6nl\u00fc riskle kar\u015f\u0131 kar\u015f\u0131ya oldu\u011funu belirtirken, oda\u011f\u0131n Sintra\u2019da Kevin Warsh\u2019\u0131n yapaca\u011f\u0131 konu\u015fma ile yakla\u015fan ABD istihdam verilerinde (tar\u0131m d\u0131\u015f\u0131 istihdam) oldu\u011funu kaydetti. Banka, haziran FOMC bas\u0131n toplant\u0131s\u0131n\u0131n ard\u0131ndan yeni bir politika y\u00f6nlendirmesi gelme olas\u0131l\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 d\u00fc\u015f\u00fck g\u00f6rse de, Warsh\u2019\u0131n Orta Do\u011fu\u2019daki geli\u015fmelere, ham petrol fiyatlar\u0131ndaki d\u00fc\u015f\u00fc\u015fe ve i\u015fg\u00fcc\u00fc piyasas\u0131 ko\u015fullar\u0131na ili\u015fkin duru\u015funu, k\u0131sa vadede dolar\u0131n y\u00f6n\u00fcn\u00fc belirleyecek ana unsurlar olarak \u00e7er\u00e7eveledi. May\u0131s JOLTS raporunu, daha \u00f6nceki yumu\u015faman\u0131n ard\u0131ndan ABD i\u015fg\u00fcc\u00fc ko\u015fullar\u0131n\u0131n istikrar kazand\u0131\u011f\u0131na dair kan\u0131t olarak g\u00f6steren OCBC, b\u00f6ylece \u201c\u015fahin Fed\u201d risklerinin g\u00fcndemde kald\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 vurgulad\u0131.<\/p>\n
Avrupa cephesinde ise OCBC, g\u00f6r\u00fcn\u00fcm\u00fc daha yumu\u015fak euro b\u00f6lgesi enflasyonuna ba\u011flayarak bunun, ECB\u2019nin hazirandaki faiz art\u0131\u015f\u0131n\u0131n ard\u0131ndan yak\u0131n vadede ilave s\u0131k\u0131la\u015ft\u0131rma bask\u0131s\u0131n\u0131 azaltt\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 ifade etti. Banka ayr\u0131ca, Christine Lagarde\u2019dan Sintra\u2019da belirgin bir \u201cg\u00fcvercin\u201d kayma beklenmesinin d\u00fc\u015f\u00fck g\u00f6r\u00fcnd\u00fc\u011f\u00fcn\u00fc; ECB yetkililerinin ikinci tur etkilerine ili\u015fkin belirsizli\u011fe at\u0131f yapmay\u0131 s\u00fcrd\u00fcrd\u00fc\u011f\u00fcn\u00fc aktard\u0131. Enerji piyasalar\u0131 istikrarl\u0131 kald\u0131\u011f\u0131 takdirde temmuzda faiz art\u0131rmaya acil bir ihtiya\u00e7 olmad\u0131\u011f\u0131na birka\u00e7 politika yap\u0131c\u0131n\u0131n i\u015faret etti\u011fini de ekledi.<\/p>\n
\u00d6n\u00fcm\u00fczdeki haftalarda ABD dolar\u0131 i\u00e7in m\u00fctevaz\u0131 bir yukar\u0131 y\u00f6nl\u00fc risk g\u00f6r\u00fcyoruz; g\u00f6zler Sintra konferans\u0131nda Fed Ba\u015fkan\u0131 Warsh\u2019ta ve yakla\u015fan tar\u0131m d\u0131\u015f\u0131 istihdam raporunda olacak. Ana tema, \u015fahin Federal Rezerv\u2019in destekledi\u011fi g\u00fc\u00e7lenen bir dolar; Avrupa Merkez Bankas\u0131 (ECB) taraf\u0131nda ise harekete ge\u00e7me bask\u0131s\u0131 daha s\u0131n\u0131rl\u0131. Merkez bankas\u0131 politikalar\u0131ndaki bu ayr\u0131\u015fma, yat\u0131r\u0131mc\u0131lar i\u00e7in net bir f\u0131rsat penceresi yarat\u0131yor.<\/p>\n
May\u0131s ay\u0131na ait son JOLTS raporu 8,1 milyon a\u00e7\u0131k i\u015f pozisyonuna i\u015faret ederken, en son istihdam verisi 270 binlik g\u00fc\u00e7l\u00fc bir art\u0131\u015f g\u00f6sterdi; bu da i\u015fg\u00fcc\u00fc ko\u015fullar\u0131n\u0131n istikrar kazand\u0131\u011f\u0131 g\u00f6r\u00fc\u015f\u00fcm\u00fcz\u00fc destekliyor. Bu sa\u011flam veri seti, Fed\u2019e \u015fahin duru\u015funu korumak i\u00e7in alan tan\u0131yor; nitekim haziran \u201cdot plot\u201du, bu y\u0131l bir faiz art\u0131\u015f\u0131 daha olas\u0131l\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131n s\u00fcrd\u00fc\u011f\u00fcn\u00fc g\u00f6steriyor. Warsh\u2019\u0131n a\u00e7\u0131klamalar\u0131nda bu g\u00fcc\u00fc vurgulamas\u0131n\u0131 bekliyoruz.<\/p>\n
Atlantik\u2019in di\u011fer taraf\u0131nda, euro b\u00f6lgesi enflasyonuna ili\u015fkin son \u00f6nc\u00fc (flash) tahmin haziranda %2,4 seviyesinde gelerek kademeli so\u011fuma e\u011filimini s\u00fcrd\u00fcrd\u00fc. Bu durum, \u00f6zellikle ge\u00e7en ayki ad\u0131m\u0131n ard\u0131ndan ECB\u2019nin yak\u0131n zamanda yeni bir faiz art\u0131\u015f\u0131n\u0131 g\u00fcndeme almas\u0131 i\u00e7in aciliyeti azalt\u0131yor. ECB yetkilileri, \u00f6zellikle WTI ham petrol fiyatlar\u0131n\u0131n varil ba\u015f\u0131na 80 dolara do\u011fru yeniden gerilemesiyle birlikte, bekle-g\u00f6r yakla\u015f\u0131m\u0131na daha yatk\u0131n g\u00f6r\u00fcn\u00fcyor.<\/p>\n
Bu g\u00f6r\u00fcn\u00fcm \u00e7er\u00e7evesinde, m\u00fctevaz\u0131 dolar g\u00fcc\u00fcne pozisyonlanman\u0131n temkinli bir hamle oldu\u011fu kanaatindeyiz. Beklenen politika ayr\u0131\u015fmas\u0131ndan faydalanmak amac\u0131yla euroya kar\u015f\u0131 USD al\u0131m opsiyonlar\u0131 (EUR\/USD sat\u0131m opsiyonlar\u0131) almak bu stratejiler aras\u0131nda yer alabilir. Bu pozisyonlar, Warsh\u2019\u0131n \u015fahin mesaj\u0131 peki\u015ftirmesi ve ABD verilerinin g\u00fc\u00e7l\u00fc kalmas\u0131 halinde potansiyel yukar\u0131 y\u00f6n\u00fc yakalarken, riski tan\u0131ml\u0131 tutar.<\/p>\n
Bu kurgu, Fed-ECB politika ayr\u0131\u015fmas\u0131n\u0131n dolar endeksinde %20\u2019nin \u00fczerinde kal\u0131c\u0131 bir ralliye yol a\u00e7t\u0131\u011f\u0131 2014-2015 d\u00f6nemini an\u0131msat\u0131yor. Opsiyon kullan\u0131m\u0131, Sintra konu\u015fmalar\u0131 ve tar\u0131m d\u0131\u015f\u0131 istihdam verisi a\u00e7\u0131klamas\u0131 etraf\u0131nda bekledi\u011fimiz volatiliteyi y\u00f6netmeye yard\u0131mc\u0131 olabilir. B\u00fcy\u00fck bir politika s\u00fcrprizinden ziyade, bu e\u011filimin teyidini ar\u0131yoruz.<\/p>\n\n\n\n