Ham petrol fiyatlar\u0131, ikinci \u00e7eyre\u011fi 2020\u2019den bu yana en sert d\u00fc\u015f\u00fc\u015fle kapatmas\u0131n\u0131n ard\u0131ndan gerilemesini s\u00fcrd\u00fcrd\u00fc. ABD g\u00f6stergesi West Texas Intermediate (WTI), ABD-\u0130ran aras\u0131nda yeni bir g\u00f6r\u00fc\u015fme turuna i\u015faret eden haberlerin ard\u0131ndan \u00e7ar\u015famba g\u00fcn\u00fc varil ba\u015f\u0131na 69,00 dolar\u0131n alt\u0131na indi; b\u00f6ylece d\u00f6rt ay sonra ilk kez bu seviyenin alt\u0131 g\u00f6r\u00fcld\u00fc.<\/p>\n\n
M\u00fczakerelerin seyri belirsizli\u011fini koruyor. CNN, Tahran\u2019\u0131n bu hafta ABD ile do\u011frudan g\u00f6r\u00fc\u015fme yap\u0131lmayaca\u011f\u0131n\u0131 s\u00f6ylemesinden bir g\u00fcn sonra, ABD ve \u0130ranl\u0131 m\u00fczakereciler aras\u0131nda teknik d\u00fczeyde g\u00f6r\u00fc\u015fmelerin \u00e7ar\u015famba g\u00fcn\u00fc yeniden ba\u015flad\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 bildirdi. \u0130ranl\u0131 yetkililer ise m\u00fczakerecilerinin, \u0130ran\u2019\u0131n k\u0131s\u0131tl\u0131 varl\u0131klar\u0131 da d\u00e2hil olmak \u00fczere bir mutabakat zapt\u0131ndaki (MoU) h\u00fck\u00fcmleri g\u00f6r\u00fc\u015fmek \u00fczere Katarl\u0131 arabulucularla bir araya gelece\u011fini s\u00f6yledi. Ayr\u0131 bir geli\u015fmede, H\u00fcrm\u00fcz Bo\u011faz\u0131\u2019ndaki trafi\u011fin sava\u015f \u00f6ncesi seviyelere k\u0131yasla adeta \u201cdamla damla\u201d kald\u0131\u011f\u0131 belirtildi; ABD g\u00fcvenli ge\u00e7i\u015fin sa\u011flanmas\u0131 i\u00e7in \u0130ran\u2019a geri ad\u0131m atma \u00e7a\u011fr\u0131s\u0131 yaparken, \u0130ran su yolundaki egemenli\u011fini vurgulad\u0131 ve bo\u011faz\u0131n gelece\u011fine ili\u015fkin her t\u00fcrl\u00fc tart\u0131\u015fmay\u0131 mutabakat zapt\u0131 \u015fartlar\u0131n\u0131n yerine getirilmesine ba\u011flad\u0131.<\/p>\n\n—\n\n
WTI ham petrol\u00fcn 69 dolar\u0131n alt\u0131na gerilemesiyle, piyasan\u0131n ABD-\u0130ran anla\u015fmas\u0131n\u0131n \u201cen iyi senaryosunu\u201d fiyatlad\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 g\u00f6r\u00fcyoruz. Mevcut fiyat hareketi tamamen man\u015fetler taraf\u0131ndan y\u00f6nlendiriliyor ve bu da k\u0131r\u0131lgan bir ortam yarat\u0131yor. Diplomatik tablo a\u00e7\u0131k\u00e7a istikrars\u0131z oldu\u011fundan bu a\u015fa\u011f\u0131 y\u00f6nl\u00fc s\u00fcr\u00fcklenmeyi son derece temkinli de\u011ferlendirmek gerekir.<\/p>\n\n
Piyasan\u0131n, olas\u0131 yeni \u0130ran arz\u0131na odakland\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 not ediyoruz. Nitekim ge\u00e7en haftaki Enerji Enformasyon \u0130daresi (EIA) verileri, 2,1 milyon varillik s\u00fcrpriz stok art\u0131\u015f\u0131na i\u015faret etmi\u015fti. Bu ilave arz bask\u0131s\u0131, fiyat\u0131n kritik 70 dolar seviyesinin alt\u0131na inmesine katk\u0131 veriyor. \u00d6te yandan ABD \u00fcretimi g\u00fcnl\u00fck yakla\u015f\u0131k 13,2 milyon varil civar\u0131nda istikrarl\u0131 seyrederken, piyasa fiili bir arz kesintisine kar\u015f\u0131 son derece hassas.<\/p>\n\n—\n\n
M\u00fczakere taraflar\u0131ndan gelen \u00e7eli\u015fkili haber ak\u0131\u015f\u0131 dikkate al\u0131nd\u0131\u011f\u0131nda, \u00f6n\u00fcm\u00fczdeki haftalar i\u00e7in ham petrol opsiyonlar\u0131nda ima edilen volatilitenin cazip bir al\u0131m f\u0131rsat\u0131 sundu\u011funu d\u00fc\u015f\u00fcn\u00fcyoruz. Sert fiyat d\u00fc\u015f\u00fc\u015f\u00fc put opsiyonlar\u0131n\u0131 cazip k\u0131l\u0131yor; ancak ani bir tersine d\u00f6n\u00fc\u015f riski y\u00fcksek. Her iki y\u00f6nde de belirgin bir fiyat hareketinden faydalanmak i\u00e7in a\u011fustos vadeli kontratlarda uzun straddle pozisyonlar\u0131yla konumlanaca\u011f\u0131z.<\/p>\n\n
H\u00fcrm\u00fcz Bo\u011faz\u0131 en kritik unsur; zira tarihsel olarak g\u00fcnde 20 milyon varilin \u00fczerindeki sevkiyat\u0131n ge\u00e7i\u015fini kontrol ediyor. G\u00f6r\u00fc\u015fmelerin bozulmas\u0131 h\u00e2linde \u0130ran\u2019\u0131n bo\u011faz\u0131n stat\u00fcs\u00fcn\u00fc m\u00fczakere etmeyi reddetmesini g\u00fc\u00e7l\u00fc bir y\u00fckseli\u015f tetikleyicisi olarak g\u00f6r\u00fcyoruz. Bu nedenle, korunma ama\u00e7l\u0131 olarak ucuz, vade-d\u0131\u015f\u0131 (out-of-the-money) al\u0131m (call) opsiyonlar\u0131n\u0131 da kademeli bi\u00e7imde ekliyoruz; zira ba\u015far\u0131s\u0131zl\u0131k sinyali, fiyatlar\u0131 h\u0131zla yeniden varil ba\u015f\u0131na 80 dolar band\u0131na ta\u015f\u0131yabilir.<\/p>\n\n\n\n