Alt\u0131n (XAU\/USD), \u00c7ar\u015famba g\u00fcn\u00fc erken Asya i\u015flemlerinde 4.015 dolar civar\u0131nda b\u00fcy\u00fck \u00f6l\u00e7\u00fcde yatay seyretti. Piyasalar, bu ay\u0131n ba\u015f\u0131nda var\u0131lan ge\u00e7ici bar\u0131\u015f anla\u015fmas\u0131n\u0131n kal\u0131c\u0131l\u0131\u011f\u0131na ili\u015fkin \u00e7eli\u015fkili sinyallerin soru i\u015faretleri yaratmas\u0131n\u0131n ard\u0131ndan Doha\u2019da yap\u0131lmas\u0131 beklenen ABD-\u0130ran g\u00f6r\u00fc\u015fmelerinin g\u00f6r\u00fcn\u00fcm\u00fcn\u00fc tart\u0131yor. ABD\u2019li yetkililer, Katar\u2019daki g\u00f6r\u00fc\u015fmelerin Sal\u0131 g\u00fcn\u00fc ger\u00e7ekle\u015fmesinin beklendi\u011fini ve bunu, hafta sonu ABD\u2019nin hava sald\u0131r\u0131lar\u0131n\u0131n ard\u0131ndan Tahran\u2019dan gelen talebe ba\u011flad\u0131klar\u0131n\u0131 belirtirken, \u0130ran D\u0131\u015fi\u015fleri Bakanl\u0131\u011f\u0131 \u00f6n\u00fcm\u00fczdeki g\u00fcnlerde herhangi bir toplant\u0131n\u0131n planlanmad\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 a\u00e7\u0131klad\u0131.<\/p>\n
ABD\u2019nin \u00f6zel temsilcileri Jared Kushner ve Steve Witkoff Sal\u0131 g\u00fcn\u00fc Doha\u2019ya ula\u015ft\u0131. Katarl\u0131 bir h\u00fck\u00fcmet s\u00f6zc\u00fcs\u00fc, bu isimlerin ABD-\u0130ran g\u00f6r\u00fc\u015fmeleri ve b\u00f6lgesel geli\u015fmeleri ele almak \u00fczere Katar Ba\u015fbakan\u0131 ile bir araya gelece\u011fini s\u00f6yledi; ancak \u015fu a\u015famada \u00fcst d\u00fczey bir ABD-\u0130ran toplant\u0131s\u0131 takvimde bulunmuyor. Dikkatler ayr\u0131ca ABD istihdam verilerine \u00e7evrildi: \u00c7ar\u015famba g\u00fcn\u00fc ADP verisi, Per\u015fembe g\u00fcn\u00fc ise Tar\u0131m D\u0131\u015f\u0131 \u0130stihdam (NFP) raporu a\u00e7\u0131klanacak. Yat\u0131r\u0131mc\u0131lar, Fed\u2019in politika patikas\u0131n\u0131 ve bunun ABD Dolar\u0131 (USD) ile faiz getirisi olmayan metal \u00fczerindeki etkilerini de\u011ferlendirecek.<\/p>\n
Alt\u0131n\u0131n 4.015 dolar civar\u0131nda tutundu\u011funu g\u00f6r\u00fcyoruz; fiyat iki ana g\u00fc\u00e7 aras\u0131nda s\u0131k\u0131\u015fm\u0131\u015f durumda. Doha\u2019daki ABD-\u0130ran g\u00f6r\u00fc\u015fmelerine ili\u015fkin jeopolitik risk \u015fimdilik fiyat\u0131n alt\u0131n\u0131 desteklerken, yakla\u015fan ABD istihdam verileri \u00f6nemli bir potansiyel bask\u0131 unsuru olu\u015fturuyor.<\/p>\n
Doha\u2019daki tablo belirgin bir belirsizlik yarat\u0131yor; bu nedenle pozisyonlar\u0131m\u0131z\u0131 hedge etmek i\u00e7in opsiyon stratejilerine bak\u0131yoruz. Tarihsel olarak, 2019\u2019daki H\u00fcrm\u00fcz Bo\u011faz\u0131 gerilimleri gibi Orta Do\u011fu diplomasisinde ya\u015fanan k\u0131r\u0131lmalar, alt\u0131n fiyatlar\u0131nda k\u0131sa vadeli s\u0131\u00e7ramalara yol a\u00e7t\u0131. Olumsuz man\u015fetlerden kaynaklanabilecek olas\u0131 yukar\u0131 y\u00f6nl\u00fc hareketi yakalamak i\u00e7in, yak\u0131n vadeli vade sonuna sahip al\u0131m (call) opsiyonlar\u0131 sat\u0131n alman\u0131n temkinli bir yakla\u015f\u0131m olabilece\u011fini d\u00fc\u015f\u00fcn\u00fcyoruz.<\/p>\n
Oda\u011f\u0131m\u0131z \u015fimdi ABD istihdam verilerine kay\u0131yor; ADP raporu bug\u00fcn, Tar\u0131m D\u0131\u015f\u0131 \u0130stihdam ise yar\u0131n a\u00e7\u0131klanacak. Reuters\u2019a g\u00f6re piyasa beklentisi, ge\u00e7en ayki g\u00fc\u00e7l\u00fc performansa benzer \u015fekilde, yakla\u015f\u0131k 270 binlik bir istihdam art\u0131\u015f\u0131 y\u00f6n\u00fcnde; bu da Fed \u00fczerindeki bask\u0131y\u0131 canl\u0131 tutuyor. G\u00fc\u00e7l\u00fc bir veri, Fed\u2019in \u201cuzun s\u00fcre y\u00fcksek faiz\u201d duru\u015funu peki\u015ftirerek dolar\u0131 destekleyebilir ve alt\u0131n \u00fczerinde bask\u0131 yaratabilir.<\/p>\n
Bu ekonomik g\u00fc\u00e7, kal\u0131c\u0131 enflasyonla birlikte g\u00f6r\u00fcl\u00fcyor. \u00c7al\u0131\u015fma \u0130statistikleri B\u00fcrosu\u2019nun (BLS) son T\u00dcFE verisi y\u0131ll\u0131k bazda %3,3\u2019e i\u015faret ediyor. Bu ortamda, Fed\u2019in faizleri s\u0131k\u0131 tutaca\u011f\u0131 sinyali vermesi halinde alt\u0131n\u0131n faiz getirisi olmamas\u0131 \u00f6nemli bir zay\u0131fl\u0131k olarak \u00f6ne \u00e7\u0131k\u0131yor. Bu nedenle, NFP verisinin beklentilerin \u00e7ok \u00fczerinde gelmesi halinde alt\u0131nda sert bir geri \u00e7ekilmeye kar\u015f\u0131 korunmak amac\u0131yla sat\u0131m (put) opsiyonlar\u0131 almay\u0131 de\u011ferlendiriyoruz.<\/p>\n\n\n\n