{"id":50349,"date":"2026-06-30T20:53:42","date_gmt":"2026-06-30T20:53:42","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/uncategorized\/jolts-is-ilanlari-beklentileri-asti-dolar-endeksi-toparlanirken-fed-faiz-artisi-beklentileri-gucleniyor\/"},"modified":"2026-06-30T20:53:42","modified_gmt":"2026-06-30T20:53:42","slug":"jolts-is-ilanlari-beklentileri-asti-dolar-endeksi-toparlanirken-fed-faiz-artisi-beklentileri-gucleniyor","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/live-updates\/jolts-is-ilanlari-beklentileri-asti-dolar-endeksi-toparlanirken-fed-faiz-artisi-beklentileri-gucleniyor\/","title":{"rendered":"JOLTS \u0130\u015f \u0130lanlar\u0131 Beklentileri A\u015ft\u0131; Dolar Endeksi Toparlan\u0131rken Fed Faiz Art\u0131\u015f\u0131 Beklentileri G\u00fc\u00e7leniyor"},"content":{"rendered":"

ABD \u00c7al\u0131\u015fma \u0130statistikleri B\u00fcrosu\u2019nun (BLS) JOLTS verileri, May\u0131s sonu itibar\u0131yla a\u00e7\u0131k i\u015f say\u0131s\u0131n\u0131n 7,594 milyon oldu\u011funu g\u00f6sterdi. Bu seviye 7,3 milyonluk piyasa beklentisinin \u00fczerinde ve Nisan\u2019\u0131n 7,585 milyonluk d\u00fczeyinden hafif y\u00fcksek geldi. Nisan verisi ise 7,618 milyondan revize edildi. Toplam ayr\u0131lmalar (separations) 5,1 milyonla b\u00fcy\u00fck \u00f6l\u00e7\u00fcde de\u011fi\u015fmezken oran %3,2\u2019de sabit kald\u0131. \u0130stifalar (quits) 3,1 milyonla yatay seyretti ve oran %1,9\u2019da de\u011fi\u015fmedi. Federal h\u00fck\u00fcmette istifalar 4 bin artt\u0131; i\u015ften \u00e7\u0131karmalar ve i\u015ften \u00e7\u0131karmaya ba\u011fl\u0131 ayr\u0131lmalar (layoffs and discharges) 1,7 milyonla de\u011fi\u015fmezken oran %1,1 seviyesinde s\u0131n\u0131rl\u0131 hareket etti. Sanat, e\u011flence ve rekreasyon sekt\u00f6r\u00fcnde ise i\u015ften \u00e7\u0131karmalar ve i\u015ften \u00e7\u0131karmaya ba\u011fl\u0131 ayr\u0131lmalar 42 bin azald\u0131.<\/p>\n

ABD Dolar Endeksi (DXY), \u00fcst \u00fcste \u00fc\u00e7 g\u00fcnl\u00fck geri \u00e7ekilmenin ard\u0131ndan 101,50\u2019ye do\u011fru toparland\u0131. Veri \u00f6ncesinde tahminler, Nisan\u2019daki 7,61 milyona kar\u015f\u0131 7,3 milyon a\u00e7\u0131k i\u015fe ve 2025 ortalamas\u0131nda 7,08 milyona i\u015faret ediyordu. Nisan\u2019da a\u00e7\u0131k i\u015fler, Mart\u2019taki 6,88 milyondan ayl\u0131k bazda %4,6 (731 bin) artm\u0131\u015ft\u0131. Tar\u0131m d\u0131\u015f\u0131 istihdam verisi May\u0131s\u2019ta 172 bin ki\u015filik art\u0131\u015f g\u00f6sterirken, CME FedWatch fiyatlamalar\u0131 gelecek ayki FOMC toplant\u0131s\u0131nda faiz art\u0131\u015f\u0131 olas\u0131l\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 %30, Eyl\u00fcl i\u00e7in ise %60\u2019\u0131n \u00fczerinde fiyatlad\u0131; bu oranlar bir ay \u00f6nce s\u0131ras\u0131yla %6 ve %20 d\u00fczeyindeydi. EUR\/USD 13 ay\u0131n dip seviyelerine yak\u0131n seyrederken, Haziran\u2019da %2,17 ve iki ayda yakla\u015f\u0131k %3 geriledi; 1,1325 ve 1,1210 destek, 1,1500 ile 1,1620-1,1640 band\u0131 diren\u00e7 olarak \u00f6ne \u00e7\u0131kt\u0131.<\/p>\n

ABD \u0130\u015fg\u00fcc\u00fc Piyasas\u0131nda Dayan\u0131kl\u0131l\u0131k ve Fed Politikas\u0131 A\u00e7\u0131s\u0131ndan Sonu\u00e7lar<\/h3>\n

May\u0131s ay\u0131na ili\u015fkin son a\u00e7\u0131k i\u015f verisinin 7,594 milyonla gelmesini, ABD i\u015fg\u00fcc\u00fc piyasas\u0131n\u0131n dayan\u0131kl\u0131l\u0131\u011f\u0131na dair net bir sinyal olarak de\u011ferlendiriyoruz. Bu rakam beklentileri a\u015farken, ekonominin s\u0131k\u0131 para politikas\u0131n\u0131n s\u00fcrmesine dayanabilece\u011fine i\u015faret ediyor. Bu da, Fed\u2019in oda\u011f\u0131n\u0131 enflasyona daha belirgin bi\u00e7imde y\u00f6neltmesi i\u00e7in gerekli gerek\u00e7eye sahip oldu\u011fu g\u00f6r\u00fc\u015f\u00fcm\u00fcz\u00fc destekliyor.<\/p>\n

\u0130\u015fg\u00fcc\u00fc piyasas\u0131ndaki bu g\u00fc\u00e7le birlikte faiz t\u00fcrevlerini yak\u0131ndan izliyoruz; CME FedWatch Tool\u2019a g\u00f6re Eyl\u00fcl\u2019e kadar faiz art\u0131\u015f\u0131 olas\u0131l\u0131\u011f\u0131 art\u0131k %60\u2019\u0131n \u00fczerine \u00e7\u0131km\u0131\u015f durumda. Son enflasyon verileri de bu bask\u0131y\u0131 teyit ediyor: May\u0131s 2026\u2019ya ili\u015fkin son T\u00fcketici Fiyat Endeksi (T\u00dcFE\/CPI) y\u0131ll\u0131k bazda inat\u00e7\u0131 \u015fekilde %3,4\u2019te kald\u0131. Bu y\u0131l en az bir ek faiz art\u0131\u015f\u0131n\u0131 fiyatlayacak \u015fekilde Fed Funds vadeli i\u015flemleri \u00fczerinden pozisyonlanmay\u0131 ihtiyatl\u0131 bir strateji olarak g\u00f6r\u00fcyoruz.<\/p>\n

Piyasa Tepkileri ve D\u00f6viz \u0130\u015flemleri Stratejileri<\/h3>\n

Raporun ard\u0131ndan ABD Dolar Endeksi\u2019nin 101,50 b\u00f6lgesine h\u0131zl\u0131 toparlanmas\u0131, piyasan\u0131n veriyi \u201c\u015fahin\u201d bi\u00e7imde yorumlad\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 teyit ediyor. Tarihsel olarak dolar, Fed\u2019in s\u0131k\u0131la\u015ft\u0131rma d\u00f6ng\u00fcs\u00fc \u00f6ncesindeki aylarda g\u00fc\u00e7lenme e\u011filimi g\u00f6sterir; bu kal\u0131b\u0131n devam etmesini bekliyoruz. Bu nedenle, \u00f6n\u00fcm\u00fczdeki haftalarda olas\u0131 yukar\u0131 y\u00f6nl\u00fc hareketten faydalanmak i\u00e7in dolar endeksi (DXY) \u00fczerinde al\u0131m opsiyonlar\u0131n\u0131 (call) de\u011ferlendiriyoruz.<\/p>\n

Temmuz Tar\u0131m D\u0131\u015f\u0131 \u0130stihdam raporuna yakla\u015f\u0131rken, d\u00f6viz piyasas\u0131nda volatilitenin artmas\u0131n\u0131 bekliyoruz. H\u00e2len g\u00f6rece sakin say\u0131labilecek 14 seviyelerinde i\u015flem g\u00f6ren Volatilite Endeksi (VIX), Fed\u2019in patikas\u0131n\u0131 de\u011fi\u015ftirebilecek b\u00fcy\u00fck veri ak\u0131\u015flar\u0131 etraf\u0131nda s\u0131kl\u0131kla sert y\u00fckseli\u015fler g\u00f6r\u00fcyor. Ba\u015fl\u0131ca d\u00f6viz paritelerinde beklenenden b\u00fcy\u00fck bir harekete pozisyon almak i\u00e7in opsiyon al\u0131m\u0131 avantajl\u0131 olabilir.<\/p>\n

EUR\/USD taraf\u0131nda ise paritenin 1,1500 alt\u0131nda zorlanmas\u0131n\u0131, \u00f6zellikle Euro B\u00f6lgesi\u2019ndeki zay\u0131f b\u00fcy\u00fcme g\u00f6r\u00fcn\u00fcm\u00fcyle birlikte kal\u0131c\u0131 bir zay\u0131fl\u0131k i\u015fareti olarak g\u00f6r\u00fcyoruz. Olas\u0131 y\u00fckseli\u015fleri d\u00fc\u015f\u00fc\u015f y\u00f6nl\u00fc pozisyonlar\u0131 art\u0131rmak i\u00e7in f\u0131rsat olarak de\u011ferlendiriyor; muhtemelen sat\u0131m opsiyonlar\u0131 (put) kullanarak 13 ay\u0131n dibi olan 1,1325\u2019in yeniden test edilmesini hedefliyoruz. Bu yakla\u015f\u0131m, ABD\u2019nin ekonomik \u00fcst\u00fcn performans\u0131 ve daha g\u00fc\u00e7l\u00fc dolar temas\u0131na da uyumlu.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Hemen i\u015flem yapmaya ba\u015flay\u0131n \u2014 ger\u00e7ek VT Markets hesab\u0131n\u0131z\u0131 olu\u015fturmak i\u00e7in buraya<\/a> t\u0131klay\u0131n.<\/b>\n\n<\/p>","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

S\u00fcrpriz JOLTS verisi piyasay\u0131 sallad\u0131: May\u0131s a\u00e7\u0131k i\u015f say\u0131s\u0131 7,594 milyonla beklentiyi a\u015ft\u0131. Fed\u2019in \u015fahinle\u015fme ihtimali ve Eyl\u00fcl\u2019e kadar faiz art\u0131\u015f\u0131 fiyatlamas\u0131 g\u00fc\u00e7lenirken DXY 101,50\u2019ye toparland\u0131, EUR\/USD dipte.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":87,"featured_media":49985,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[71],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-50349","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-live-updates"],"acf":{"acf_article_selection_author":null},"aioseo_notices":[],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/50349","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/87"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=50349"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/50349\/revisions"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/49985"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=50349"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=50349"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=50349"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}