{"id":50344,"date":"2026-06-30T19:22:34","date_gmt":"2026-06-30T19:22:34","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/uncategorized\/chicago-pmi-haziranda-567ye-geriledi-abd-buyumesinde-sogumayi-ve-fedin-daha-guvercin-fiyatlamalarini-guclendirdi\/"},"modified":"2026-06-30T19:22:34","modified_gmt":"2026-06-30T19:22:34","slug":"chicago-pmi-haziranda-567ye-geriledi-abd-buyumesinde-sogumayi-ve-fedin-daha-guvercin-fiyatlamalarini-guclendirdi","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/live-updates\/chicago-pmi-haziranda-567ye-geriledi-abd-buyumesinde-sogumayi-ve-fedin-daha-guvercin-fiyatlamalarini-guclendirdi\/","title":{"rendered":"Chicago PMI Haziran\u2019da 56,7\u2019ye geriledi; ABD b\u00fcy\u00fcmesinde so\u011fumay\u0131 ve Fed\u2019in daha g\u00fcvercin fiyatlamalar\u0131n\u0131 g\u00fc\u00e7lendirdi"},"content":{"rendered":"

ABD Chicago PMI endeksi haziranda 56,7\u2019ye gerileyerek 58,1\u2019lik piyasa beklentisinin alt\u0131nda kald\u0131. Endeks, geni\u015fleme ile daralmay\u0131 ay\u0131ran 50 e\u015fi\u011finin \u00fczerinde kalmay\u0131 s\u00fcrd\u00fcrd\u00fc; bu da b\u00f6lgesel i\u015f aktivitesinde b\u00fcy\u00fcmenin devam etti\u011fine, ancak beklenenden daha yava\u015f bir tempoya i\u015faret ediyor.<\/p>\n\n

Beklentilerin alt\u0131nda kalan veri, Ortabat\u0131\u2019daki imalat ve hizmetler hatt\u0131nda ivmeye ili\u015fkin alg\u0131y\u0131 t\u00f6rp\u00fcleyebilir. Piyasalar, bunun daha geni\u015f \u00e7apl\u0131 faaliyetlerde bir so\u011fumaya m\u0131 i\u015faret etti\u011fini yoksa \u00f6nceki g\u00fc\u00e7l\u00fc seyrin ard\u0131ndan yaln\u0131zca normalle\u015fme mi ya\u015fand\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 anlamak i\u00e7in veriyi di\u011fer k\u0131sa vadeli g\u00f6stergelerle birlikte de\u011ferlendirecektir.<\/p>\n\n

Daha Geni\u015f Ekonomik Yava\u015flama ve Strateji Ayarlamalar\u0131<\/h3>\n\n

Chicago PMI\u2019daki sapma, imalat sekt\u00f6r\u00fcn\u00fcn \u00f6ng\u00f6r\u00fclenden daha h\u0131zl\u0131 so\u011fudu\u011funu g\u00f6steriyor. Bu durum, \u00fc\u00e7\u00fcnc\u00fc \u00e7eyre\u011fe girerken daha geni\u015f ekonomik b\u00fcy\u00fcmede yava\u015flama olas\u0131l\u0131\u011f\u0131na i\u015faret ediyor. Bunu, \u00f6n\u00fcm\u00fczdeki haftalara y\u00f6nelik stratejilerimizi ayarlamak i\u00e7in net bir sinyal olarak g\u00f6r\u00fcyoruz.<\/p>\n\n

Benzer so\u011fuma e\u011filimini ba\u015fka g\u00f6stergelerde de izliyoruz; nitekim ulusal ISM \u0130malat endeksi de ge\u00e7en ay 51,3\u2019e gerileyerek daha genel bir yava\u015flamaya i\u015faret etti. Bu g\u00f6r\u00fcn\u00fcm, son istihdam raporuyla da uyumlu: \u00fccret art\u0131\u015f\u0131 y\u0131ll\u0131k bazda %3,8\u2019e yava\u015flayarak Fed \u00fczerindeki bask\u0131y\u0131 azaltt\u0131. B\u00fcy\u00fcme ve enflasyonda \u0131l\u0131ml\u0131la\u015fma paterni, g\u00f6r\u00fc\u015f\u00fcm\u00fcz\u00fc g\u00fc\u00e7lendiriyor.<\/p>\n\n

Bu veriler \u0131\u015f\u0131\u011f\u0131nda, hisse senedi portf\u00f6ylerinde a\u015fa\u011f\u0131 y\u00f6nl\u00fc korumay\u0131 art\u0131r\u0131yoruz. Temmuz sonu ve a\u011fustos vadeli S&P 500 (SPY) sat\u0131m (put) opsiyonlar\u0131 al\u0131yoruz. Bu hamle, yat\u0131r\u0131mc\u0131lar\u0131n yava\u015flama ihtimali ta\u015f\u0131yan bir ekonomiyi fiyatlamas\u0131yla olu\u015fabilecek olas\u0131 bir geri \u00e7ekilmeye kar\u015f\u0131 hedge ama\u00e7l\u0131yor.<\/p>\n\n

Piyasa oynakl\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131n mevcut d\u00fc\u015f\u00fck seviyelerinden yukar\u0131 y\u00f6nl\u00fc hareket etmesini bekliyoruz. Bu nedenle VIX vadeli i\u015flemlerinde uzun pozisyon al\u0131yoruz; b\u00fcy\u00fcme beklentileri a\u015fa\u011f\u0131 revize edildi\u011finde belirsizlik genellikle artar. Tarihsel olarak, buna benzer s\u0131n\u0131rl\u0131 ekonomik s\u00fcrprizler dahi VIX\u2019te k\u0131sa vadeli s\u0131\u00e7ramalar\u0131n \u00f6nc\u00fcs\u00fc olabildi; 2025\u2019in d\u00f6rd\u00fcnc\u00fc \u00e7eyre\u011finde g\u00f6r\u00fcld\u00fc\u011f\u00fc \u00fczere.<\/p>\n\n

Politika Tepkisi, Kur ve Emtia Konumlanmas\u0131<\/h3>\n\n

\u00dc\u00e7\u00fcnc\u00fc \u00e7eyrekte Fed\u2019in faiz art\u0131r\u0131m\u0131 olas\u0131l\u0131\u011f\u0131 art\u0131k daha d\u00fc\u015f\u00fck g\u00f6r\u00fcn\u00fcyor. Getirilerde geri \u00e7ekilme beklentisiyle 10 y\u0131ll\u0131k Hazine tahvili vadeli kontratlar\u0131nda (ZN) uzun pozisyon al\u0131yoruz. Federal fon vadeli i\u015flemleri piyasas\u0131, eyl\u00fcle kadar faiz art\u0131\u015f\u0131 ihtimalini %20\u2019nin alt\u0131na fiyatl\u0131yor; bu oran yaln\u0131zca ge\u00e7en hafta %45 seviyesindeydi.<\/p>\n\n

Daha az \u015fahin bir Fed, b\u00fcy\u00fck olas\u0131l\u0131kla ABD dolar\u0131 \u00fczerinde bask\u0131 yaratacakt\u0131r. Ba\u015fl\u0131ca para birimleri sepetine kar\u015f\u0131 ABD Dolar Endeksi\u2019nde (DXY) k\u0131sa pozisyon a\u00e7\u0131yoruz. Avrupa Merkez Bankas\u0131\u2019n\u0131n daha istikrarl\u0131 bir politika patikas\u0131na i\u015faret etmesi nedeniyle Euro\u2019da g\u00f6rece g\u00fc\u00e7lenme g\u00f6r\u00fcyoruz.<\/p>\n\n

\u0130malattaki yava\u015flama, sanayi emtialar\u0131na talebi do\u011frudan etkiler. Bak\u0131r vadeli i\u015flemlerindeki maruziyetimizi azalt\u0131yoruz. Buna kar\u015f\u0131l\u0131k, ekonomik belirsizlik ve potansiyel olarak daha d\u00fc\u015f\u00fck reel getiriler ortam\u0131nda alt\u0131n\u0131 cazip bir \u201cg\u00fcvenli liman\u201d varl\u0131\u011f\u0131 olarak de\u011ferlendiriyoruz.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Hemen i\u015flem yapmaya ba\u015flay\u0131n \u2014 ger\u00e7ek VT Markets hesab\u0131n\u0131z\u0131 olu\u015fturmak i\u00e7in buraya<\/a> t\u0131klay\u0131n.<\/b>\n\n<\/p>","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

S\u00fcrpriz d\u00fc\u015f\u00fc\u015f! Chicago PMI haziranda 56,7\u2019ye indi, beklenti 58,1\u2019in alt\u0131nda kald\u0131. B\u00fcy\u00fcme s\u00fcrse de ivme zay\u0131f: hisseye koruma, VIX uzun, tahvil uzun; DXY k\u0131sa, bak\u0131r azalt, alt\u0131n art\u0131r.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":87,"featured_media":50001,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[71],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-50344","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-live-updates"],"acf":{"acf_article_selection_author":null},"aioseo_notices":[],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/50344","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/87"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=50344"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/50344\/revisions"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/50001"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=50344"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=50344"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=50344"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}