{"id":50343,"date":"2026-06-30T18:52:42","date_gmt":"2026-06-30T18:52:42","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/uncategorized\/usd-jpy-dolar-rallisinin-ortasinda-piyasalar-japonya-merkez-bankasi-destegine-odaklanirken-2024-zirvelerini-asti\/"},"modified":"2026-06-30T18:52:42","modified_gmt":"2026-06-30T18:52:42","slug":"usd-jpy-dolar-rallisinin-ortasinda-piyasalar-japonya-merkez-bankasi-destegine-odaklanirken-2024-zirvelerini-asti","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/live-updates\/usd-jpy-dolar-rallisinin-ortasinda-piyasalar-japonya-merkez-bankasi-destegine-odaklanirken-2024-zirvelerini-asti\/","title":{"rendered":"USD\/JPY, Dolar Rallisinin Ortas\u0131nda Piyasalar Japonya Merkez Bankas\u0131 Deste\u011fine Odaklan\u0131rken 2024 Zirvelerini A\u015ft\u0131"},"content":{"rendered":"

USD\/JPY, piyasalar\u0131n Japonya Merkez Bankas\u0131\u2019n\u0131n (BoJ) olas\u0131 ad\u0131mlar\u0131n\u0131 izledi\u011fi bir ortamda 2024 zirvelerinin bulundu\u011fu 162 civar\u0131n\u0131n \u00fczerine \u00e7\u0131karak 1980\u2019lerden bu yana g\u00f6r\u00fclen seviyelere dokundu. Resm\u00ee sat\u0131\u015flar, nisan sonu ve may\u0131s ba\u015f\u0131nda 160\u2019\u0131n hemen \u00fczerindeki seviyelerde toplamda 70 milyar dolar\u0131n biraz \u00fczerine ula\u015fm\u0131\u015ft\u0131; ancak Japon yenine ek destek alan\u0131, daha geni\u015f \u00e7apl\u0131 bir ABD dolar\u0131 rallisi ile m\u00fcdahale taktiklerine ili\u015fkin k\u0131s\u0131tlar (emirlerin k\u00fcmelenmesi davran\u0131\u015f\u0131 ve piyasa likiditesi etraf\u0131ndaki zamanlama d\u00e2hil) \u00e7er\u00e7evesinde s\u0131n\u0131rlan\u0131yor.<\/p>\n\n

Dikkatler takvim ve Japonya\u2019n\u0131n politika alan\u0131nda da. Yar\u0131n Fed Ba\u015fkan\u0131 Kevin Warsh\u2019\u0131n a\u00e7\u0131klamalar\u0131n\u0131n beklenmesi ve per\u015fembe g\u00fcn\u00fc a\u00e7\u0131klanacak haziran ABD istihdam raporu nedeniyle, cuma g\u00fcnk\u00fc 4 Temmuz ABD tatili olas\u0131 bir m\u00fcdahale penceresi olarak g\u00f6r\u00fcl\u00fcyor; aksi h\u00e2lde odak, 20 Temmuz\u2019daki Marine Day \u00f6ncesinde 16\u201317 Temmuz\u2019a kay\u0131yor. Ad\u0131m gecikir ve ABD verileri ile Fed ileti\u015fimi \u015fahin kal\u0131rsa, USD\/JPY\u2019nin 164\u2013165 band\u0131na y\u00f6nelmesi \u00f6ng\u00f6r\u00fcl\u00fcyor. Japonya\u2019n\u0131n d\u00f6viz rezervleri 1,07 trilyon dolar civar\u0131ndaki on y\u0131l\u0131n en d\u00fc\u015f\u00fck seviyesine kar\u015f\u0131l\u0131k yakla\u015f\u0131k 1,1 trilyon dolar d\u00fczeyinde; ayr\u0131ca IMF\u2019nin rejim \u00e7er\u00e7evesi ek bask\u0131 yarat\u0131yor: alt\u0131 ay i\u00e7inde \u00fc\u00e7ten fazla m\u00fcdahale \u201cvakas\u0131\u201d (her bir vakan\u0131n \u00fc\u00e7 i\u015f g\u00fcn\u00fcnden uzun s\u00fcrmemesi ko\u015fuluyla) \u2018serbest dalgal\u0131\u2019 stat\u00fcs\u00fcn\u00fc riske atabilir.<\/p>\n\n

<\/figure>\n\n

Japonya Merkez Bankas\u0131 M\u00fcdahalesi \u0130\u00e7in Artan Bask\u0131<\/h3>\n\n

USD\/JPY\u2019nin art\u0131k 165\u2019in \u00fczerinde i\u015flem g\u00f6rmesiyle, BoJ m\u00fcdahalesi konusunda y\u00fcksek alarm durumunday\u0131z. Bask\u0131 \u00e7ok g\u00fc\u00e7l\u00fc; Japonya\u2019n\u0131n son Tokyo T\u00dcFE verisinin %2,7\u2019ye y\u00fckselmesi, zay\u0131f yenin ithalat maliyetlerini nas\u0131l yukar\u0131 itti\u011fini ortaya koyuyor. Bu, uzun s\u00fcre g\u00f6z ard\u0131 edilemeyecek \u00f6l\u00e7\u00fcde b\u00fcy\u00fck bir siyasi mesele.<\/p>\n\n

BoJ\u2019un, bu haftan\u0131n kritik ABD makro verilerinin a\u00e7\u0131klanmas\u0131n\u0131 beklemesinin muhtemel oldu\u011funu d\u00fc\u015f\u00fcn\u00fcyoruz. Bu cuma a\u00e7\u0131klanacak ABD istihdam raporu, dolar\u0131n daha da g\u00fc\u00e7lenmesine yol a\u00e7abilecek \u00f6nemli bir risk unsuru. Bu da, etkiyi maksimize etmek i\u00e7in 4 Temmuz ABD tatili etraf\u0131ndaki d\u00fc\u015f\u00fck likidite penceresini m\u00fcdahale a\u00e7\u0131s\u0131ndan cazip bir zamanlama h\u00e2line getiriyor.<\/p>\n\n

Yen G\u00f6r\u00fcn\u00fcm\u00fc ve M\u00fcdahalenin S\u0131n\u0131rl\u0131 Etkisi<\/h3>\n\n

Bu hafta m\u00fcdahale gelmezse, temmuz ortas\u0131na\u201421 Temmuz\u2019daki Japonya Marine Day tatilinin hemen \u00f6ncesine\u2014bak\u0131lmal\u0131. Bu, 2024\u2019te yetkililerin tatil d\u00f6nemlerini m\u00fcdahale i\u00e7in kulland\u0131\u011f\u0131 yakla\u015f\u0131m\u0131 yeniden g\u00fcndeme getirir. ABD verilerinin g\u00fc\u00e7l\u00fc kalmas\u0131 h\u00e2linde, o zamana kadar USD\/JPY\u2019nin 167 seviyesini test etmesi kolayl\u0131kla m\u00fcmk\u00fcn olabilir.<\/p>\n\n

Japonya\u2019n\u0131n d\u00f6viz rezervlerinin s\u0131n\u0131rs\u0131z olmad\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 biliyoruz; y\u0131l\u0131n ba\u015f\u0131ndaki baz\u0131 ad\u0131mlar\u0131n ard\u0131ndan rezervler h\u00e2len 1,15 trilyon dolar civar\u0131nda. Ayr\u0131ca IMF taraf\u0131ndan \u2018serbest dalgal\u0131\u2019 kur rejiminden farkl\u0131 bir s\u0131n\u0131fland\u0131rmaya al\u0131nmaktan ka\u00e7\u0131nmak istiyorlar. Bu da, olas\u0131 herhangi bir m\u00fcdahalenin uzun soluklu bir m\u00fccadeleden ziyade hedefli ve kararl\u0131 olaca\u011f\u0131 anlam\u0131na geliyor.<\/p>\n\n

Sonu\u00e7 olarak, bu y\u00fckseli\u015fin temel itici g\u00fcc\u00fcn\u00fcn g\u00fc\u00e7l\u00fc ABD dolar\u0131 oldu\u011funu unutmamak gerekiyor. Son ABD \u00e7ekirdek PCE verisinin %2,9\u2019da kalmas\u0131, enflasyonun inat\u00e7\u0131 seyrini s\u00fcrd\u00fcrd\u00fc\u011f\u00fcne i\u015faret ederek Fed\u2019i \u015fahin bir patikada tutuyor. Bu politika ayr\u0131\u015fmas\u0131, BoJ m\u00fcdahalesinin yen i\u00e7in uzun vadede ne \u00f6l\u00e7\u00fcde kal\u0131c\u0131 destek sa\u011flayabilece\u011fini s\u0131n\u0131rl\u0131yor.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Hemen i\u015flem yapmaya ba\u015flay\u0131n \u2014 ger\u00e7ek VT Markets hesab\u0131n\u0131z\u0131 olu\u015fturmak i\u00e7in buraya<\/a> t\u0131klay\u0131n.<\/b>\n\n<\/p>","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

\u015eok seviye: USD\/JPY 162\u2019yi a\u015ft\u0131, 1980\u2019lerden beri zirvede. BoJ m\u00fcdahalesi i\u00e7in 4 Temmuz d\u00fc\u015f\u00fck likidite penceresi izleniyor; rezerv\/IMF k\u0131s\u0131tl\u0131, g\u00fc\u00e7l\u00fc dolar 165-167 riskini art\u0131r\u0131yor.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":87,"featured_media":50190,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[71],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-50343","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-live-updates"],"acf":{"acf_article_selection_author":null},"aioseo_notices":[],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/50343","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/87"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=50343"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/50343\/revisions"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/50190"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=50343"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=50343"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=50343"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}