GBP\/USD Sal\u0131 g\u00fcn\u00fc Asya i\u015flemlerinde 1,3240 civar\u0131na gerileyerek 1,3250\u2019nin alt\u0131nda kald\u0131. Piyasalar, BoE\u2019nin istikrarl\u0131 faiz patikas\u0131n\u0131 daha g\u00fc\u00e7l\u00fc bir ABD Dolar\u0131 ile kar\u015f\u0131la\u015ft\u0131r\u0131rken, odak bu hafta a\u00e7\u0131klanacak ABD ADP istihdam verileri ve Tar\u0131m D\u0131\u015f\u0131 \u0130stihdam (Nonfarm Payrolls) raporuna kay\u0131yor. Beklentiler, ABD Merkez Bankas\u0131\u2019n\u0131n (Fed) bu y\u0131l i\u00e7inde politikay\u0131 yeniden s\u0131k\u0131la\u015ft\u0131rabilece\u011fi y\u00f6n\u00fcnde.<\/p>\n
Fed, haziran toplant\u0131s\u0131nda faizleri sabit tuttu. Enflasyon ise h\u00e2l\u00e2 bankan\u0131n %2 hedefinin \u00fczerinde seyrederken, CME FedWatch arac\u0131na g\u00f6re piyasalar eyl\u00fcl ay\u0131nda faiz art\u0131\u015f\u0131 olas\u0131l\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 %60\u2019a yak\u0131n fiyatl\u0131yor. Sterlin \u00fczerindeki bask\u0131, Birle\u015fik Krall\u0131k\u2019\u0131n 1\u00c7 GSYH g\u00f6r\u00fcn\u00fcm\u00fcndeki revizyonun ard\u0131ndan da artt\u0131: Ulusal \u0130statistik Ofisi\u2019nin (ONS) nihai tahminine g\u00f6re \u00e7eyreklik bazda \u00fcretim %0,6 artarak de\u011fi\u015fmedi; ancak y\u0131ll\u0131k b\u00fcy\u00fcme oran\u0131 %1,1\u2019den %0,9\u2019a revize edildi. Parite, ge\u00e7en haftaki bant tepesinin (1,3270 civar\u0131) a\u015f\u0131lamamas\u0131n\u0131n ard\u0131ndan en son 1,3222 civar\u0131nda i\u015flem g\u00f6rd\u00fc.<\/p>\n
Sterlinin y\u00f6n bulmakta zorland\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 ve ABD dolar\u0131 kar\u015f\u0131s\u0131nda 1,2715 seviyesine yak\u0131n i\u015flem g\u00f6rd\u00fc\u011f\u00fcn\u00fc de\u011ferlendiriyoruz. Bizim i\u00e7in temel belirleyici, faiz indirimlerine i\u015faret eden \u0130ngiltere Merkez Bankas\u0131 (BoE) ile daha sab\u0131rl\u0131 bir ABD Merkez Bankas\u0131 aras\u0131ndaki politika fark\u0131n\u0131n giderek artmas\u0131. Yaz boyunca i\u015flem dinamiklerini bu ayr\u0131\u015fman\u0131n belirlemesi muhtemel.<\/p>\n
BoE son toplant\u0131s\u0131nda politika faizini %5,25\u2019te sabit tuttu; ancak a\u00e7\u0131klamalar ilk faiz indiriminin a\u011fustos kadar erken bir tarihte gelebilece\u011fine i\u015faret ediyor. Haziranda a\u00e7\u0131klanan Birle\u015fik Krall\u0131k enflasyon verilerinde man\u015fet enflasyonun yakla\u015f\u0131k \u00fc\u00e7 y\u0131l aradan sonra ilk kez bankan\u0131n %2 hedef seviyesine gerilemesi, gev\u015feme y\u00f6n\u00fcndeki arg\u00fcman\u0131 g\u00fc\u00e7lendiriyor. Bu beklenti, sterlinin olas\u0131 y\u00fckseli\u015flerini s\u0131n\u0131rlayan bir unsur.<\/p>\n
Atlantik\u2019in di\u011fer taraf\u0131nda ise Fed\u2019in faiz indiriminde aceleci olmad\u0131\u011f\u0131 g\u00f6r\u00fcl\u00fcyor; son veriler ABD \u00e7ekirdek enflasyonunun %3,4 civar\u0131nda yap\u0131\u015fkan kald\u0131\u011f\u0131na i\u015faret ediyor. CME FedWatch\u2019a g\u00f6re yat\u0131r\u0131mc\u0131lar eyl\u00fcl ay\u0131na kadar ilk faiz indirimi olas\u0131l\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 yakla\u015f\u0131k %65 civar\u0131nda fiyatl\u0131yor; bu, Birle\u015fik Krall\u0131k i\u00e7in \u00f6ng\u00f6r\u00fclen patikaya k\u0131yasla daha az kesin bir g\u00f6r\u00fcn\u00fcm. G\u00fc\u00e7l\u00fc ABD ekonomisi dolara alttan destek vermeyi s\u00fcrd\u00fcr\u00fcyor.<\/p>\n
Bu g\u00f6r\u00fcn\u00fcm \u00e7er\u00e7evesinde, kullan\u0131m fiyat\u0131 1,2850 civar\u0131nda olan out-of-the-money GBP\/USD al\u0131m (call) opsiyonlar\u0131n\u0131n sat\u0131lmas\u0131n\u0131n uygulanabilir bir strateji oldu\u011funu d\u00fc\u015f\u00fcn\u00fcyoruz. Bu yakla\u015f\u0131m, sterlinin yak\u0131n vadede belirgin \u015fekilde yukar\u0131 k\u0131r\u0131lmakta zorlanaca\u011f\u0131 g\u00f6r\u00fc\u015f\u00fc \u00fczerinden prim toplamaya imk\u00e2n tan\u0131r. Mevcut d\u00fc\u015f\u00fck oynakl\u0131k ortam\u0131, opsiyon sat\u0131\u015f\u0131 i\u00e7in risk-getiri profilini daha cazip k\u0131l\u0131yor.<\/p>\n
Yak\u0131ndan takip etti\u011fimiz kritik veri, yakla\u015fan ABD Tar\u0131m D\u0131\u015f\u0131 \u0130stihdam raporu. Tarihsel olarak istihdam verisinin beklentileri 50 bin veya daha fazla a\u015fa\u011f\u0131 y\u00f6nde ka\u00e7\u0131rmas\u0131, faiz indirim olas\u0131l\u0131klar\u0131nda anl\u0131k bir s\u0131\u00e7rama yarat\u0131p dolar\u0131 zay\u0131flatabiliyor. \u00d6te yandan raporda beklenmedik bir g\u00fc\u00e7lenme, mevcut dinami\u011fi peki\u015ftirerek sterlin aleyhine (short pound) stratejileri destekleyebilir.<\/p>\n\n\n\n