\u00c7in\u2019in sanayi k\u00e2r\u0131 art\u0131\u015f\u0131 May\u0131s ay\u0131nda ivme kaybetti; y\u0131ll\u0131k bazda art\u0131\u015f Nisan\u2019daki %24,7\u2019den %21,1\u2019e gerilerken, Ocak\u2013May\u0131s d\u00f6nemi k\u00fcm\u00fclatif art\u0131\u015f %18,8 ile Ocak\u2013Nisan\u2019daki %18,2\u2019nin \u00fczerine \u00e7\u0131kt\u0131. Veriler, zay\u0131f i\u00e7 t\u00fcketim ve yat\u0131r\u0131m\u0131n g\u00fc\u00e7l\u00fc ihracat ve daha sa\u011flam \u00fcretici fiyatlar\u0131n\u0131n sa\u011flad\u0131\u011f\u0131 deste\u011fi giderek daha fazla dengelemesiyle momentumun yumu\u015fad\u0131\u011f\u0131na i\u015faret ediyor. Haziran ay\u0131na ili\u015fkin NBS resmi imalat ve imalat d\u0131\u015f\u0131 PMI verileri Sal\u0131 g\u00fcn\u00fc a\u00e7\u0131klanacak; Bloomberg konsens\u00fcs\u00fc imalat PMI\u2019\u0131 50,1 ve imalat d\u0131\u015f\u0131 PMI\u2019\u0131 50,0 seviyesinde, ba\u015fa ba\u015f e\u015fi\u011fine yak\u0131n g\u00f6r\u00fcyor.<\/p>\n\n
Politika beklentileri de \u0131l\u0131ml\u0131la\u015ft\u0131; Bloomberg\u2019in anketine kat\u0131lan ekonomistlerin yar\u0131dan biraz fazlas\u0131, PBoC\u2019nin 2026 sonuna kadar beklemede kalaca\u011f\u0131n\u0131 \u00f6ng\u00f6r\u00fcyor, ancak y\u0131l\u0131n ikinci yar\u0131s\u0131nda 10 baz puanl\u0131k indirim i\u00e7in alan bulundu\u011fu de\u011ferlendiriliyor. Ayr\u0131 bir geli\u015fmede, Ba\u015fbakan Yard\u0131mc\u0131s\u0131 He Lifeng temel teknolojilerde daha h\u0131zl\u0131 ilerleme \u00e7a\u011fr\u0131s\u0131 yaparak teknolojik \u00f6z yeterlili\u011fi ve sanayi ile tedarik zinciri dayan\u0131kl\u0131l\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131n g\u00fc\u00e7lendirilmesini vurgulad\u0131. FX piyasalar\u0131nda USD\/CNY ge\u00e7en Cuma 30 pip artarak 6,80\u2019e y\u00fckseldi ve haftal\u0131k bazda 320 pip artt\u0131; offshore USD\/CNH de g\u00fcn i\u00e7inde 30 pip y\u00fckselerek 6,80\u2019e gelirken hafta genelinde 210 pip artt\u0131.<\/p>\n\n
\u00c7in\u2019de ekonomik momentumun yava\u015flamas\u0131n\u0131n, yuan \u00fczerinde ABD dolar\u0131 kar\u015f\u0131s\u0131nda a\u015fa\u011f\u0131 y\u00f6nl\u00fc bask\u0131 yaratt\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 d\u00fc\u015f\u00fcn\u00fcyoruz. Sanayi k\u00e2r\u0131 art\u0131\u015f\u0131 zay\u0131fl\u0131yor ve son veriler May\u0131s perakende sat\u0131\u015flar\u0131n\u0131n yaln\u0131zca %2,5 artt\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131, beklentilerin belirgin \u015fekilde alt\u0131nda kald\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 g\u00f6stererek zay\u0131f i\u00e7 t\u00fcketimi teyit ediyor. Bu e\u011filim, USD\/CNY\u2019nin 6,80 seviyesinde oldu\u011fu mevcut tabloda CNY\u2019deki son zay\u0131fl\u0131\u011f\u0131n s\u00fcrme olas\u0131l\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131n y\u00fcksek oldu\u011funa i\u015faret ediyor.<\/p>\n\n
En yak\u0131n kataliz\u00f6r, yar\u0131n 30 Haziran\u2019da a\u00e7\u0131klanacak Haziran imalat PMI verisi. Konsens\u00fcs, 50,1 ile b\u00fcy\u00fcme b\u00f6lgesinin hemen i\u00e7inde bir de\u011fer \u00f6ng\u00f6rse de, bizim beklentimiz 50\u2019nin alt\u0131na inerek daralma b\u00f6lgesine gerilemesi y\u00f6n\u00fcnde. Beklentiden zay\u0131f bir veri, b\u00fcy\u00fck olas\u0131l\u0131kla yuan\u0131 dolar kar\u015f\u0131s\u0131nda daha da a\u015fa\u011f\u0131 \u00e7ekecektir.<\/p>\n\n
Bu g\u00f6r\u00fcn\u00fcm \u00e7er\u00e7evesinde, t\u00fcrev i\u015flem yapanlar\u0131n USD\/CNY al\u0131m (call) opsiyonlar\u0131n\u0131 de\u011ferlendirmesi gerekti\u011fi kanaatindeyiz. Bu strateji, yuan\u0131n potansiyel de\u011fer kayb\u0131ndan faydalanmay\u0131 sa\u011flarken, \u00fcstlenilen azami riski net bi\u00e7imde tan\u0131mlar. Mevcut 6,80 seviyesinin \u00fczerindeki kullan\u0131m fiyatlar\u0131, olumsuz ekonomik verilerin tetikleyebilece\u011fi bir k\u0131r\u0131lmaya pozisyon almak i\u00e7in bir yol sunuyor.<\/p>\n\n
PMI a\u00e7\u0131klamas\u0131 \u00f6ncesinde USD\/CNH opsiyonlar\u0131nda z\u0131mni volatilitenin y\u00fckselmesini de bekliyoruz. Mevcut piyasa fiyatlamas\u0131, daralmaya i\u015faret eden bir verinin riskini tam olarak yans\u0131tm\u0131yor gibi g\u00f6r\u00fcn\u00fcyor. Bu da veri a\u00e7\u0131klamas\u0131n\u0131n ard\u0131ndan volatilite artmadan \u00f6nce pozisyon almak i\u00e7in bir f\u0131rsat yaratabilir.<\/p>\n\n
\u00c7in Merkez Bankas\u0131\u2019n\u0131n (PBoC) y\u0131l\u0131n ilerleyen d\u00f6neminde faiz indirimi olas\u0131l\u0131\u011f\u0131 da g\u00f6r\u00fc\u015f\u00fcm\u00fcze ek bir boyut kat\u0131yor. Piyasan\u0131n indirim beklentisi azalm\u0131\u015f olsa da, ekonomiyi desteklemek \u00fczere 2026\u2019n\u0131n ikinci yar\u0131s\u0131nda 10 baz puanl\u0131k bir indirim potansiyeli bulundu\u011funu d\u00fc\u015f\u00fcn\u00fcyoruz. B\u00f6yle bir ad\u0131m, yuan \u00fczerindeki bask\u0131y\u0131 art\u0131rarak uzun USD pozisyonlar\u0131n\u0131 daha cazip hale getirebilir.<\/p>\n\n
Bu tablo, yava\u015flama endi\u015felerinin belirgin kur oynakl\u0131\u011f\u0131na ve sermaye \u00e7\u0131k\u0131\u015flar\u0131na yol a\u00e7t\u0131\u011f\u0131 2015-2016 d\u00f6nemini hat\u0131rlat\u0131yor. Tarihsel \u00f6rnek, \u00c7in\u2019in b\u00fcy\u00fcme g\u00f6stergeleri zay\u0131flad\u0131\u011f\u0131nda otoritelerin kararl\u0131 ad\u0131mlar atabildi\u011fini ve bunun keskin piyasa hareketlerine neden olabildi\u011fini g\u00f6steriyor. Bu nedenle, \u00f6n\u00fcm\u00fczdeki haftalarda riski y\u00f6netmek i\u00e7in opsiyon kullan\u0131m\u0131 ihtiyatl\u0131 bir yakla\u015f\u0131m olacakt\u0131r.<\/p>\n\n\n\n