ABD ve \u0130ran, ge\u00e7ici ate\u015fkesi zorlayan birka\u00e7 g\u00fcnl\u00fck misilleme sald\u0131r\u0131lar\u0131n\u0131n ard\u0131ndan, H\u00fcrm\u00fcz Bo\u011faz\u0131 ve ilgili ba\u015fl\u0131klarda bu hafta yenilenecek g\u00f6r\u00fc\u015fmeler \u00f6ncesinde kar\u015f\u0131l\u0131kl\u0131 sald\u0131r\u0131lara ara verme konusunda anla\u015ft\u0131. Bu ay var\u0131lan mutabakat muht\u0131ras\u0131na ili\u015fkin teknik g\u00f6r\u00fc\u015fmeler s\u00fcrecek; taraflar \u015fimdilik geri ad\u0131m atarak deniz ta\u015f\u0131mac\u0131l\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131n daha serbest i\u015flemesine imk\u00e2n tan\u0131yor. Son gerilim, \u0130ran\u2019\u0131n bir konteyner gemisine sald\u0131r\u0131s\u0131yla ba\u015flam\u0131\u015f; bunu ABD\u2019nin misillemesi ve gemilere y\u00f6nelik sald\u0131r\u0131lar\u0131n da d\u00e2hil oldu\u011fu ilave kar\u015f\u0131l\u0131kl\u0131 hamleler izlemi\u015fti.<\/p>\n
Gerilimin azalmas\u0131yla piyasalar temkinli bir tepki verdi: Brent %0,903 art\u0131\u015fla 72,64\u2019e, WTI %1,228 y\u00fckseli\u015fle 70,08\u2019e \u00e7\u0131kt\u0131; Umman ham petrol\u00fc %3,847 s\u0131\u00e7rayarak 66,69\u2019a y\u00fckseldi. Buna kar\u015f\u0131l\u0131k Dubai ham petrol\u00fc %0,575 d\u00fc\u015f\u00fc\u015fle 79,214\u2019e geriledi. Banka, petrol kaynakl\u0131 fiyat bask\u0131lar\u0131n\u0131n hafiflemesine ra\u011fmen, enerji piyasalar\u0131n\u0131n normalle\u015fmesinin enflasyonun K\u00f6rfez kaynakl\u0131 geli\u015fmelere duyarl\u0131l\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 azaltt\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 belirtti. Ayn\u0131 zamanda, k\u00fcresel yapay zek\u00e2 yat\u0131r\u0131m d\u00f6ng\u00fcs\u00fcne ba\u011fl\u0131 geli\u015fen arz taraf\u0131 k\u0131s\u0131tlar\u0131na i\u015faret ederek, G\u00fcney Kore\u2019nin yar\u0131 iletken sekt\u00f6r\u00fc i\u00e7in \u20a91,350 katrilyonluk (yakla\u015f\u0131k 1 trilyon $) kamu-\u00f6zel program\u0131n\u0131 gerekli sermaye harcamalar\u0131n\u0131n \u00f6l\u00e7e\u011fine \u00f6rnek g\u00f6sterdi. Banka ayr\u0131ca, Fed Ba\u015fkan\u0131 Kevin Warsh ve di\u011fer merkez bankac\u0131lar\u0131n enflasyona kar\u015f\u0131 \u015fahin duru\u015fu yineleyebilece\u011fi bir platform olarak Sintra forumunu \u00f6ne \u00e7\u0131kard\u0131.<\/p>\n
ABD ile \u0130ran aras\u0131ndaki anla\u015fman\u0131n, ham petrol fiyatlar\u0131na yans\u0131t\u0131lan jeopolitik risk primini ge\u00e7ici olarak azaltt\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 d\u00fc\u015f\u00fcn\u00fcyoruz. H\u00fcrm\u00fcz Bo\u011faz\u0131\u2019ndan g\u00fcnl\u00fck yakla\u015f\u0131k 21 milyon varil petrol ge\u00e7iyor; bu miktar k\u00fcresel t\u00fcketimin yakla\u015f\u0131k %20\u2019sine kar\u015f\u0131l\u0131k geliyor. Bu nedenle gerilimin d\u00fc\u015fmesi, b\u00fcy\u00fck bir arz \u015fokuna ili\u015fkin yak\u0131n vadeli tehdidi belirgin bi\u00e7imde azalt\u0131yor. Bu da \u00f6n\u00fcm\u00fczdeki haftalarda, ani fiyat s\u0131\u00e7ramas\u0131 korkusu azald\u0131k\u00e7a Brent ve WTI\u2019da \u201cout-of-the-money\u201d al\u0131m (call) opsiyonlar\u0131 satmaya dayal\u0131 bir stratejinin etkili olabilece\u011fine i\u015faret ediyor.<\/p>\n
Bu tablo, 2019\u2019da b\u00f6lgedeki sald\u0131r\u0131lar\u0131n Brent vadeli i\u015flemlerini tek g\u00fcnde yakla\u015f\u0131k %20 y\u00fckseltti\u011fi tarihsel \u00f6rneklerle keskin bir tezat olu\u015fturuyor. Mevcut ate\u015fkes, petrol piyasas\u0131nda volatilitenin d\u00fc\u015fmesi gerekti\u011fine; bu da opsiyon piyasas\u0131nda k\u0131sa volatilite pozisyonlar\u0131n\u0131 daha cazip h\u00e2le getirebilece\u011fine i\u015faret ediyor. G\u00f6r\u00fc\u015fmelerin bozulmas\u0131na yol a\u00e7abilecek herhangi bir geli\u015fmeyi yak\u0131ndan izleyece\u011fiz; b\u00f6yle bir sinyal, bu pozisyonlar\u0131n h\u0131zl\u0131 \u015fekilde kapat\u0131lmas\u0131 gerekti\u011fine i\u015faret eder.<\/p>\n
Bununla birlikte, enerji cephesindeki rahatlaman\u0131n, daha kal\u0131c\u0131 bir enflasyon s\u00fcr\u00fckleyiciden dikkati da\u011f\u0131tt\u0131\u011f\u0131 g\u00f6r\u00fcl\u00fcyor. Son verilerde ileri d\u00fczey yar\u0131 iletkenler i\u00e7in \u00fcretici fiyat endeksinin y\u0131ll\u0131k bazda %15\u2019in \u00fczerine \u00e7\u0131kt\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 g\u00f6stermesiyle de teyit edildi\u011fi \u00fczere, yapay zek\u00e2 yat\u0131r\u0131m d\u00f6ng\u00fcs\u00fcnden kaynaklanan yeni arz k\u0131s\u0131tlar\u0131na odaklan\u0131yoruz. Bu, merkez bankalar\u0131n\u0131n g\u00f6z ard\u0131 edemeyece\u011fi yeni ve yap\u0131sal bir enflasyon kayna\u011f\u0131n\u0131n olu\u015ftu\u011funu g\u00f6steriyor.<\/p>\n
Bu temel fiyat bask\u0131s\u0131, merkez bankalar\u0131 i\u00e7in sa\u011flanan rahatlaman\u0131n k\u0131sa \u00f6m\u00fcrl\u00fc olaca\u011f\u0131 anlam\u0131na geliyor ve faizlerin daha uzun s\u00fcre y\u00fcksek kalaca\u011f\u0131 g\u00f6r\u00fc\u015f\u00fcm\u00fcz\u00fc g\u00fc\u00e7lendiriyor. Piyasa fiyatlamas\u0131, h\u00e2lihaz\u0131rda Aral\u0131k ay\u0131na kadar bir Fed faiz indirimi olas\u0131l\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 neredeyse %50 olarak ima ediyor; bu ise giderek daha iyimser g\u00f6r\u00fcn\u00fcyor. Fed\u2019in y\u0131l sonuna kadar faizleri sabit tutaca\u011f\u0131na oynayan Secured Overnight Financing Rate (SOFR) vadeli i\u015flemleri ve opsiyonlar\u0131nda bir f\u0131rsat bulundu\u011funa inan\u0131yoruz.<\/p>\n\n\n\n