WTI, pazartesi g\u00fcn\u00fc 70,00 dolar seviyesine yak\u0131n i\u015flem g\u00f6rd\u00fc ve ham petrol, son \u00fc\u00e7 haftada yakla\u015f\u0131k %25\u2019lik sat\u0131\u015f dalgas\u0131n\u0131n ard\u0131ndan b\u00fcy\u00fck \u00f6l\u00e7\u00fcde yatay kald\u0131. Daha \u00f6nceki d\u00fc\u015f\u00fc\u015f, ABD-\u0130ran aras\u0131nda tazelenen gerilim ve H\u00fcrm\u00fcz Bo\u011faz\u0131\u2019na ili\u015fkin kar\u0131\u015f\u0131k mesajlar\u0131n piyasalar\u0131 temkinli tutmas\u0131yla duraklad\u0131. Haberlere g\u00f6re taraflar, hafta sonu kar\u015f\u0131l\u0131kl\u0131 sald\u0131r\u0131lar\u0131 durdurma konusunda anla\u015ft\u0131; ancak yeniden ba\u015flayabilecek g\u00f6r\u00fc\u015fmelere dair g\u00f6r\u00fcn\u00fcm belirsizli\u011fini korudu: Axios, ABD\u2019li yetkililere dayand\u0131rd\u0131\u011f\u0131 haberinde g\u00f6r\u00fc\u015fmelerin bu hafta planland\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 belirtirken, \u0130ran D\u0131\u015fi\u015fleri Bakan Yard\u0131mc\u0131s\u0131 Kazem Garibabadi, ABD\u2019nin teknik ekipleriyle g\u00f6r\u00fc\u015fme plan\u0131 olmad\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 s\u00f6yledi.<\/p>\n
Belirsizlik H\u00fcrm\u00fcz\u2019e eri\u015fim ba\u015fl\u0131\u011f\u0131nda da yo\u011funla\u015ft\u0131. \u0130ranl\u0131 yetkililer, \u0130ran\u2019dan izin al\u0131nmas\u0131 halinde gemilerin serbest\u00e7e ge\u00e7i\u015f yapabilece\u011fini s\u00f6yledi; Garibabadi ise \u0130ran ve Umman\u2019\u0131n su yolunda egemenlik sahibi oldu\u011funu yazd\u0131 ve trafi\u011fin g\u00f6r\u00fc\u015f\u00fclmesi i\u00e7in yak\u0131n zamanda bir araya geldiklerini ekledi. CNN, ABD Donanmas\u0131\u2019n\u0131n gemiler i\u00e7in alarm seviyesini \u201c\u00f6nemli \u00f6l\u00e7\u00fcde y\u00fcksek\u201dten a\u015fa\u011f\u0131 \u00e7ekti\u011fini bildirdi. Buna kar\u015f\u0131l\u0131k Euronews\u2019e g\u00f6re UKMTO, ticari gemilere y\u00f6nelik son sald\u0131r\u0131lar\u0131n ard\u0131ndan tehdit seviyesini \u201ckayda de\u011fer\u201de y\u00fckseltti. \u00d6nceki geri \u00e7ekilme, ABD-\u0130ran bar\u0131\u015f g\u00f6r\u00fc\u015fmelerindeki ilerlemenin H\u00fcrm\u00fcz\u2019\u00fcn h\u0131zla yeniden a\u00e7\u0131laca\u011f\u0131 beklentilerini art\u0131rmas\u0131yla olu\u015fan erken d\u00f6nem kazan\u0131mlar\u0131n b\u00fcy\u00fck b\u00f6l\u00fcm\u00fcn\u00fc geri vermi\u015fti.<\/p>\n
West Texas Intermediate ham petrol 70 dolar civar\u0131nda tutunurken, piyasan\u0131n kritik bir d\u00f6n\u00fcm noktas\u0131nda oldu\u011funu g\u00f6r\u00fcyoruz. Son haftalardaki %25\u2019lik sert fiyat d\u00fc\u015f\u00fc\u015f\u00fc, yeniden artan jeopolitik s\u00fcrt\u00fc\u015fme nedeniyle durmu\u015f g\u00f6r\u00fcn\u00fcyor. Bu durum, a\u015fa\u011f\u0131 y\u00f6nl\u00fc momentum ile haber ak\u0131\u015f\u0131na ba\u011fl\u0131 sert bir ralli potansiyeli aras\u0131nda gergin bir denge yarat\u0131yor.<\/p>\n
H\u00fcrm\u00fcz Bo\u011faz\u0131\u2019ndaki geli\u015fmeleri \u00e7ok yak\u0131ndan izliyoruz. ABD Donanmas\u0131 ve Birle\u015fik Krall\u0131k denizcilik otoritelerinin y\u00fckseltti\u011fi alarm seviyeleri sadece \u201cg\u00fcr\u00fclt\u00fc\u201d de\u011fil; k\u00fcresel petrol t\u00fcketiminin yakla\u015f\u0131k be\u015fte birinin ge\u00e7ti\u011fi bir bo\u011fazda ger\u00e7ek bir arz kesintisi riskine i\u015faret ediyor. ABD ile \u0130ran aras\u0131nda olas\u0131 yeni bir t\u0131rmanma, daha geni\u015f temellerden ba\u011f\u0131ms\u0131z olarak fiyatlar\u0131 sert bi\u00e7imde yukar\u0131 ta\u015f\u0131yabilir.<\/p>\n
Buna kar\u015f\u0131n, son temel verilerin piyasa zay\u0131fl\u0131\u011f\u0131na i\u015faret etti\u011fini not ediyoruz. Ge\u00e7en hafta Enerji Enformasyon \u0130daresi (EIA), 3,7 milyon varillik s\u00fcrpriz ham petrol stok art\u0131\u015f\u0131 a\u00e7\u0131klad\u0131; bu da talebin beklenenden zay\u0131f olabilece\u011fini d\u00fc\u015f\u00fcnd\u00fcr\u00fcyor. Bu tablo, IEA\u2019n\u0131n 2026 talep art\u0131\u015f\u0131 g\u00f6r\u00fcn\u00fcm\u00fcn\u00fc a\u015fa\u011f\u0131 y\u00f6nl\u00fc revize etmesiyle de uyumlu; kurum, ba\u015fl\u0131ca ekonomilerdeki yava\u015flamay\u0131 gerek\u00e7e g\u00f6sterdi.<\/p>\n
OPEC+ kararlar\u0131 da fiyatlar i\u00e7in taban olu\u015fturan ana fakt\u00f6rlerden biri olmay\u0131 s\u00fcrd\u00fcr\u00fcyor. Grubun g\u00fcnl\u00fck 2,2 milyon varillik g\u00f6n\u00fcll\u00fc \u00fcretim kesintilerini uzatma y\u00f6n\u00fcndeki son anla\u015fmas\u0131, sert bir \u00e7\u00f6k\u00fc\u015fe kar\u015f\u0131 bir miktar destek sa\u011fl\u0131yor. Ancak talep g\u00f6r\u00fcn\u00fcm\u00fcnde belirgin bir iyile\u015fme ya da ger\u00e7ek bir arz \u015foku olmadan bu ad\u0131m\u0131n yeni bir ralli ba\u015flatmaya yetmeyebilece\u011fini d\u00fc\u015f\u00fcn\u00fcyoruz.<\/p>\n
\u00c7eli\u015fkili sinyaller g\u00f6z \u00f6n\u00fcne al\u0131nd\u0131\u011f\u0131nda, net bir y\u00f6n se\u00e7mek yerine beklenen volatiliteyi al-sat etmenin daha uygun yakla\u015f\u0131m oldu\u011funa inan\u0131yoruz. Bu piyasa g\u00fc\u00e7l\u00fc bir harekete haz\u0131r g\u00f6r\u00fcn\u00fcyor; straddle ya da strangle gibi opsiyon stratejilerinin al\u0131m\u0131 etkili olabilir. Bu pozisyonlar, mevcut yatay seyrin s\u00fcrmesinden daha olas\u0131 g\u00f6r\u00fcnen, iki y\u00f6nde de b\u00fcy\u00fck bir fiyat sal\u0131n\u0131m\u0131ndan k\u00e2r sa\u011flayabilir.<\/p>\n
Tarihsel olarak, 2022\u2019nin ba\u015f\u0131nda oldu\u011fu gibi benzer jeopolitik alevlenmelerin ani ve sert fiyat s\u0131\u00e7ramalar\u0131na yol a\u00e7t\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 g\u00f6rd\u00fck. Temel talep g\u00f6r\u00fcn\u00fcm\u00fc zay\u0131f olsa da, H\u00fcrm\u00fcz Bo\u011faz\u0131\u2019nda ya\u015fanabilecek tek bir olay k\u0131sa vadede bunu kolayl\u0131kla \u00f6nemsiz k\u0131labilir. Bu nedenle, uzun vadede d\u00fc\u015f\u00fc\u015f beklentisi olanlar i\u00e7in bile al\u0131m opsiyonlar\u0131 (call) yoluyla yukar\u0131 y\u00f6nl\u00fc korunma bulundurman\u0131n temkinli bir yakla\u015f\u0131m olaca\u011f\u0131 kanaatindeyiz.<\/p>\n\n\n\n