{"id":50253,"date":"2026-06-29T16:52:44","date_gmt":"2026-06-29T16:52:44","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/uncategorized\/hurmuz-riski-ve-abd-verileri-yaklasirken-rupi-yatay-seyretti-usd-inr-9435-civarinda-tutundu\/"},"modified":"2026-06-29T16:52:44","modified_gmt":"2026-06-29T16:52:44","slug":"hurmuz-riski-ve-abd-verileri-yaklasirken-rupi-yatay-seyretti-usd-inr-9435-civarinda-tutundu","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/live-updates\/hurmuz-riski-ve-abd-verileri-yaklasirken-rupi-yatay-seyretti-usd-inr-9435-civarinda-tutundu\/","title":{"rendered":"H\u00fcrm\u00fcz riski ve ABD verileri yakla\u015f\u0131rken rupi yatay seyretti; USD\/INR 94,35 civar\u0131nda tutundu"},"content":{"rendered":"

Hindistan rupisi, pazartesi g\u00fcnk\u00fc tatilin ard\u0131ndan fazla de\u011fi\u015fim g\u00f6stermedi; USD\/INR, piyasalar\u0131n k\u00fcresel enerji arz\u0131n\u0131n neredeyse be\u015fte biriyle ba\u011flant\u0131l\u0131 bir g\u00fczerg\u00e2h olan H\u00fcrm\u00fcz Bo\u011faz\u0131 yak\u0131n\u0131ndaki yeni jeopolitik riski fiyatlamas\u0131yla 94,35\u201394,38 band\u0131nda seyretti. Hafta sonu b\u00f6lgedeki sald\u0131r\u0131lar, olas\u0131 kesinti endi\u015felerini yeniden g\u00fcndeme getirirken, ABD ve \u0130ran ate\u015fkes \u00fczerinde anla\u015farak sal\u0131 g\u00fcn\u00fc Umman\u2019da g\u00f6r\u00fc\u015fme yap\u0131lmas\u0131 konusunda mutabakata vard\u0131. Petrol\u00fcn sava\u015f \u00f6ncesi seviyelere do\u011fru geri \u00e7ekilmesi k\u0131sa vadeli bask\u0131y\u0131 azaltm\u0131\u015f olsa da, \u00e7at\u0131\u015fmalar\u0131n yeniden alevlenmesi ithal petrole ba\u011f\u0131ml\u0131l\u0131\u011f\u0131 nedeniyle Hindistan i\u00e7in risk olmaya devam ediyor.<\/p>\n

ABD Dolar Endeksi, per\u015fembe g\u00fcnk\u00fc haziran Tar\u0131m D\u0131\u015f\u0131 \u0130stihdam (NFP) verisinin liderlik edece\u011fi yo\u011fun veri haftas\u0131 \u00f6ncesinde 101,30 civar\u0131nda yatay seyretti. Takvimde ayr\u0131ca ISM \u0130malat PMI, ADP \u00d6zel Sekt\u00f6r \u0130stihdam De\u011fi\u015fimi ve may\u0131s JOLTS A\u00e7\u0131k \u0130\u015f Say\u0131s\u0131 verileri yer al\u0131yor. CME FedWatch \u00fczerinden yap\u0131lan fiyatlama, bu y\u0131l en az bir Fed faiz art\u0131\u015f\u0131 ihtimalini yakla\u015f\u0131k %90 olarak i\u015faret ediyor. Teknik g\u00f6r\u00fcn\u00fcmde USD\/INR, 20 d\u00f6nemlik EMA\u2019n\u0131n (94,80) alt\u0131nda kal\u0131rken, daha geni\u015f d\u00fc\u015fen trend \u00e7izgisi yakla\u015f\u0131k 97,10\u2019dan izleniyor; destek 94,1051 civar\u0131nda, RSI (14) ise yakla\u015f\u0131k 44 seviyesinde. Ayr\u0131 olarak, Hindistan\u2019\u0131n 2006\u20132023 d\u00f6nemi ortalama b\u00fcy\u00fcmesi %6,13 olurken, RBI\u2019\u0131n enflasyon hedefi %4.<\/p>\n

Jeopolitik Riskler ve Petrol Fiyat\u0131na Duyarl\u0131l\u0131k<\/h3>\n

Yar\u0131n Umman\u2019da yap\u0131lmas\u0131 planlanan ABD-\u0130ran g\u00f6r\u00fc\u015fmelerini yak\u0131ndan izliyoruz; zira olumsuz bir sonu\u00e7 petrol fiyatlar\u0131n\u0131 do\u011frudan etkileyebilir. Brent petrol, hafta sonunda varil ba\u015f\u0131na yakla\u015f\u0131k 90 dolara kadar y\u00fckseldikten sonra 87 dolar civar\u0131nda dengelendi; g\u00f6r\u00fc\u015fmelerin ba\u015far\u0131s\u0131z olmas\u0131 durumunda fiyat\u0131n kolayl\u0131kla yeniden o seviyelere y\u00f6nelmesi m\u00fcmk\u00fcn. Bu da, enerji maliyetlerine duyarl\u0131l\u0131\u011f\u0131 nedeniyle Hindistan rupisi a\u00e7\u0131s\u0131ndan belirgin bir belirsizlik yarat\u0131yor.<\/p>\n

Hindistan ham petrol\u00fcn\u00fcn %85\u2019inden fazlas\u0131n\u0131 ithal etti\u011fi i\u00e7in, kal\u0131c\u0131 bir fiyat art\u0131\u015f\u0131 rupi \u00fczerinde ciddi bask\u0131 olu\u015fturacakt\u0131r. Bu nedenle k\u0131sa vadeli vadeye sahip, paran\u0131n d\u0131\u015f\u0131nda (out-of-the-money) USD\/INR al\u0131m (call) opsiyonlar\u0131 almay\u0131 de\u011ferlendiriyoruz. Bu yakla\u015f\u0131m, jeopolitik gerilimin t\u0131rmanmas\u0131 halinde rupide olas\u0131 sert de\u011fer kayb\u0131na d\u00fc\u015f\u00fck maliyetle pozisyon alma imk\u00e2n\u0131 sunuyor.<\/p>\n

\u00d6nemli Piyasa G\u00fcndemi ve Volatilite G\u00f6r\u00fcn\u00fcm\u00fc<\/h3>\n

Bu haftan\u0131n di\u011fer ana ba\u015fl\u0131\u011f\u0131, per\u015fembe g\u00fcnk\u00fc ABD Tar\u0131m D\u0131\u015f\u0131 \u0130stihdam (NFP) verisi. Piyasa konsens\u00fcs\u00fc, haziran i\u00e7in yakla\u015f\u0131k 195 bin yeni istihdam \u00f6ng\u00f6r\u00fcyor. Bunun belirgin \u015fekilde \u00fczerinde bir sonu\u00e7, bu y\u0131l Fed faiz art\u0131\u015f\u0131 ihtimaline dair %90\u2019l\u0131k piyasa fiyatlamas\u0131n\u0131 g\u00fc\u00e7lendirerek ABD dolar\u0131n\u0131 destekleyebilir.<\/p>\n

Hem \u0130ran g\u00f6r\u00fc\u015fmelerinden hem de NFP verisinden ikili (binary) sonu\u00e7 ihtimali bulundu\u011fu i\u00e7in, \u00f6n\u00fcm\u00fczdeki d\u00f6nemde volatilitenin y\u00fcksek kalaca\u011f\u0131n\u0131 d\u00fc\u015f\u00fcn\u00fcyoruz. USD\/INR opsiyonlar\u0131nda 1 haftal\u0131k z\u0131mni volatilite %7,5\u2019e y\u00fckselerek ayl\u0131k ortalama olan %6,0\u2019\u0131n \u00fczerine \u00e7\u0131kt\u0131. Bu, her iki y\u00f6nde de b\u00fcy\u00fck bir hareketten kazan\u00e7 sa\u011flayan straddle gibi stratejilerin de\u011ferlendirilmeye de\u011fer olabilece\u011fine i\u015faret ediyor.<\/p>\n

Teknik a\u00e7\u0131dan USD\/INR, 94,38 civar\u0131nda kritik bir noktada ve 94,10\u2019daki ana destek \u00e7izgisinin hemen \u00fczerinde bulunuyor. \u0130\u015flemlerimizde bu seviyeyi tetikleyici (trigger) olarak kullanaca\u011f\u0131z. Deste\u011fin alt\u0131na net bir k\u0131r\u0131l\u0131m, rupide ilave g\u00fc\u00e7lenmeye i\u015faret edece\u011finden, sat\u0131m (put) opsiyonu al\u0131m\u0131n\u0131 veya vadeli kontratlarda k\u0131sa pozisyon a\u00e7may\u0131 g\u00fcndeme getirecektir.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Hemen i\u015flem yapmaya ba\u015flay\u0131n \u2014 ger\u00e7ek VT Markets hesab\u0131n\u0131z\u0131 olu\u015fturmak i\u00e7in buraya<\/a> t\u0131klay\u0131n.<\/b>\n\n<\/p>","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

H\u00fcrm\u00fcz riski ve ABD-\u0130ran g\u00f6r\u00fc\u015fmesi USD\/INR\u2019yi 94,35 band\u0131na kilitledi. Brent 87$. NFP \u00f6ncesi DXY yatay. Opsiyon volatilitesi %7,5; OTM call\/straddle \u00f6ne \u00e7\u0131k\u0131yor. Fed art\u0131\u015f\u0131 %90.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":87,"featured_media":49961,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[71],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-50253","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-live-updates"],"acf":{"acf_article_selection_author":null},"aioseo_notices":[],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/50253","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/87"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=50253"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/50253\/revisions"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/49961"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=50253"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=50253"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=50253"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}