Brent petrol, H\u00fcrm\u00fcz Bo\u011faz\u0131\u2019ndan tanker trafi\u011finin artmas\u0131yla ge\u00e7en hafta sert geriledi; bu durum enflasyon \u015foku ve daha s\u0131k\u0131 para politikas\u0131 endi\u015felerini yat\u0131\u015ft\u0131rd\u0131. Bu geri \u00e7ekilmeye ra\u011fmen, ABD ile \u0130ran\u2019\u0131n bu hafta Doha\u2019daki teknik g\u00f6r\u00fc\u015fmeler \u00f6ncesinde yeni sald\u0131r\u0131lara ara verme konusunda anla\u015ft\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131n bildirildi\u011fi bir ortamda dahi piyasalar\u0131n \u0130ran kaynakl\u0131 riskleri izlemeyi s\u00fcrd\u00fcrmesi nedeniyle, fiyat\u0131n g\u00fcn i\u00e7inde s\u0131n\u0131rl\u0131 da olsa y\u00fckseldi\u011fi belirtildi.<\/p>\n
Son gerilim dalgas\u0131, H\u00fcrm\u00fcz \u00e7evresinde kar\u015f\u0131l\u0131kl\u0131 sald\u0131r\u0131lar\u0131 i\u00e7erdi; ticari gemicili\u011fe y\u00f6nelik sald\u0131r\u0131lar ve buna kar\u015f\u0131l\u0131k K\u00f6rfez\u2019de \u0130ran ba\u011flant\u0131l\u0131 ve ABD ba\u011flant\u0131l\u0131 hedefleri vuran misillemeler g\u00fcndeme geldi, Bahreyn ve Kuveyt\u2019in ad\u0131 ge\u00e7ti. Denizcilik risk de\u011ferlendirmeleri yukar\u0131 \u00e7ekildi; Joint Maritime Information Center, Bo\u011faz\u2019daki tehdit seviyesini \u201ckayda de\u011fer\u201d olarak tan\u0131mlad\u0131. Piyasalarda, Brent\u2019in haftay\u0131 %10,65 d\u00fc\u015f\u00fc\u015fle kapatmas\u0131na ve cuma g\u00fcnk\u00fc %4,34\u2019l\u00fck kayb\u0131n ard\u0131ndan sava\u015f \u00f6ncesi seviyelerin alt\u0131na d\u00f6nerek varil ba\u015f\u0131na 71,99 dolara gerilemesine ra\u011fmen hisse senetlerinde sat\u0131\u015f g\u00f6r\u00fcld\u00fc; ancak kontrol ve olas\u0131 ge\u00e7i\u015f maliyetleri gibi maddelere ili\u015fkin anla\u015fmazl\u0131klar ate\u015fkes \u00e7er\u00e7evesini k\u0131r\u0131lgan b\u0131rakt\u0131.<\/p>\n
Brent petrol\u00fcn varil ba\u015f\u0131na 74 dolar civar\u0131nda seyretti\u011fini g\u00f6r\u00fcyoruz; bu, ge\u00e7en haftaki sert %10\u2019luk d\u00fc\u015f\u00fc\u015f\u00fcn ard\u0131ndan olu\u015fan temkinli bir s\u00fck\u00fbneti yans\u0131t\u0131yor. Piyasa tansiyonun d\u00fc\u015ft\u00fc\u011f\u00fcn\u00fc fiyatlasa da H\u00fcrm\u00fcz Bo\u011faz\u0131\u2019ndaki durum ola\u011fan\u00fcst\u00fc k\u0131r\u0131lganl\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 koruyor. Mevcut fiyat ile altta yatan jeopolitik risk aras\u0131ndaki bu ayr\u0131\u015fma, bizim f\u0131rsat g\u00f6rd\u00fc\u011f\u00fcm\u00fcz alan.<\/p>\n
Vortexa\u2019n\u0131n sevkiyat verileri, Bo\u011faz\u2019dan g\u00fcnl\u00fck tanker ge\u00e7i\u015flerinin \u00e7at\u0131\u015fma \u00f6ncesi ortalaman\u0131n bug\u00fcn %95\u2019ine ula\u015ft\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 g\u00f6steriyor; spot fiyatlar\u0131n d\u00fc\u015fmesinin nedeni de bu. Ancak petrol oynakl\u0131k endeksi (OVX) h\u00e2l\u00e2 38 ile y\u00fcksek seviyede; bu da opsiyon piyasas\u0131n\u0131n yeniden alevlenme riskini anlaml\u0131 \u00f6l\u00e7\u00fcde fiyatlad\u0131\u011f\u0131na i\u015faret ediyor. Bu, ham petrol\u00fcn ucuzlad\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131; ancak fiyat s\u0131\u00e7ramas\u0131na kar\u015f\u0131 sigortan\u0131n ucuzlamad\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 s\u00f6yl\u00fcyor.<\/p>\n
Bu \u00e7ar\u015famba planlanan Doha g\u00f6r\u00fc\u015fmelerinden kaynaklanan ikili (binary) risk nedeniyle, fiyatta y\u00f6n tahmini yapm\u0131yoruz. En iyi stratejinin opsiyonlar \u00fczerinden oynakl\u0131k almak oldu\u011funa inan\u0131yoruz; \u00f6rne\u011fin A\u011fustos vadeli kontratlar i\u00e7in long straddle gibi. Bu pozisyon, g\u00f6r\u00fc\u015fmelerin ba\u015far\u0131l\u0131 olup fiyatlar\u0131n daha da d\u00fc\u015fmesi ya da ba\u015far\u0131s\u0131z olup fiyatlar\u0131n s\u0131\u00e7ramas\u0131 halinde, her iki y\u00f6nde de b\u00fcy\u00fck bir hareketten kazan\u00e7 sa\u011flar.<\/p>\n
Bu tablo, 1980\u2019lerdeki \u201cTanker Sava\u015f\u0131\u201dn\u0131 and\u0131r\u0131yor: petrol ak\u0131\u015flar\u0131 tamamen durmasa bile aral\u0131kl\u0131 sald\u0131r\u0131lar uzun s\u00fcre y\u00fcksek oynakl\u0131k d\u00f6nemleri yaratm\u0131\u015ft\u0131. G\u00f6r\u00fc\u015fmelerden gelecek olumsuz man\u015fetlerin fiyatta anl\u0131k yukar\u0131 bo\u015fluk (gap) olu\u015fturabilece\u011fini \u00f6ng\u00f6rmeliyiz. Bu nedenle, bu oynakl\u0131k pozisyonlar\u0131n\u0131 hafta boyunca ta\u015f\u0131mak ihtiyatl\u0131 g\u00f6r\u00fcn\u00fcyor.<\/p>\n\n\n\n