{"id":50221,"date":"2026-06-29T07:53:55","date_gmt":"2026-06-29T07:53:55","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/uncategorized\/eur-usd-iran-gerilimi-ve-merkez-bankasi-gorunumu-faizler-ve-volatiliteyi-odakta-tutarken-dengeleniyor\/"},"modified":"2026-06-29T07:53:55","modified_gmt":"2026-06-29T07:53:55","slug":"eur-usd-iran-gerilimi-ve-merkez-bankasi-gorunumu-faizler-ve-volatiliteyi-odakta-tutarken-dengeleniyor","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/live-updates\/eur-usd-iran-gerilimi-ve-merkez-bankasi-gorunumu-faizler-ve-volatiliteyi-odakta-tutarken-dengeleniyor\/","title":{"rendered":"EUR\/USD, \u0130ran Gerilimi ve Merkez Bankas\u0131 G\u00f6r\u00fcn\u00fcm\u00fc Faizler ve Volatiliteyi Odakta Tutarken Dengeleniyor"},"content":{"rendered":"

EUR\/USD, piyasalar\u0131n ABD\u2019nin \u0130ran\u2019la sava\u015f\u0131n\u0131 sona erdirme \u00e7abalar\u0131na ili\u015fkin yeni sinyalleri tartt\u0131\u011f\u0131 Pazartesi g\u00fcn\u00fc erken Avrupa i\u015flemlerinde 1,1385 civar\u0131nda fazla de\u011fi\u015fim g\u00f6stermedi. Haftan\u0131n ilerleyen b\u00f6l\u00fcm\u00fcnde odak, Avrupa Merkez Bankas\u0131\u2019n\u0131n (ECB) y\u0131ll\u0131k forumu ile ABD\u2019nin haziran ay\u0131 istihdam verilerine kay\u0131yor. Her iki ba\u015fl\u0131k da k\u0131sa vadeli faiz fiyatlamas\u0131 ve kur y\u00f6n\u00fc \u00fczerinde belirleyici olabilir.<\/p>\n

CNN, bir ABD\u2019li yetkilinin H\u00fcrm\u00fcz Bo\u011faz\u0131 yak\u0131nlar\u0131nda kar\u015f\u0131l\u0131kl\u0131 ate\u015f al\u0131\u015fveri\u015finin ard\u0131ndan ABD ve \u0130ran\u2019\u0131n \u015fimdilik geri ad\u0131m ataca\u011f\u0131n\u0131 s\u00f6yledi\u011fini bildirdi. Habere g\u00f6re iki \u00fclke, Sal\u0131 g\u00fcn\u00fc Katar\u2019\u0131n Doha kentinde bir araya gelmeyi planl\u0131yor. \u0130ran D\u0131\u015fi\u015fleri Bakan\u0131 Abbas Araghchi, H\u00fcrm\u00fcz Bo\u011faz\u0131\u2019na ili\u015fkin sorumlulu\u011fun yaln\u0131zca Tahran\u2019da oldu\u011funu belirterek, tercih ettikleri g\u00fczerg\u00e2h\u0131n baypas edilmesine y\u00f6nelik giri\u015fimlerin \u201cgerilim ve t\u0131rmanmaya\u201d yol a\u00e7aca\u011f\u0131 uyar\u0131s\u0131nda bulundu. Ayr\u0131 olarak, Orta Do\u011fu\u2019daki gerilim enflasyon bask\u0131lar\u0131n\u0131 g\u00fcndemde tutarken, ay\u0131n ba\u015f\u0131nda Kevin Warsh\u2019un Fed Ba\u015fkan\u0131 olarak \u201c\u015fahin\u201d bir ba\u015flang\u0131\u00e7 yapmas\u0131, bu y\u0131l ABD\u2019de faiz indirimlerine y\u00f6nelik beklentileri a\u015fa\u011f\u0131 \u00e7ekerek EUR kar\u015f\u0131s\u0131nda USD\u2019yi destekledi. ECB Ba\u015fkan\u0131 Christine Lagarde\u2019\u0131n forumu Pazartesi g\u00fcn\u00fc a\u00e7mas\u0131 bekleniyor.<\/p>\n

Merkez Bankas\u0131 Ayr\u0131\u015fmas\u0131 ve Jeopolitik Riskler<\/h3>\n

EUR\/USD paritesinin, piyasalar\u0131n merkez bankalar\u0131n\u0131n ayr\u0131\u015fan patikalar\u0131n\u0131 tartt\u0131\u011f\u0131 s\u00fcre\u00e7te 1,0750 civar\u0131nda i\u015flem g\u00f6rd\u00fc\u011f\u00fcn\u00fc de\u011ferlendiriyoruz. Orta Do\u011fu\u2019da jeopolitik gerilim riskinin s\u00fcrmesi, petrol fiyatlar\u0131n\u0131 etkilemeye devam ederken belirsizlik katman\u0131n\u0131 art\u0131r\u0131yor. \u00d6n\u00fcm\u00fczdeki haftalarda a\u00e7\u0131klanacak kritik ABD istihdam verileri ve ECB yetkililerinin mesajlar\u0131 belirleyici olacak.<\/p>\n

Piyasa Volatilitesi ve Faiz Beklentileri<\/h3>\n

Bu temel gerilim, volatilitede art\u0131\u015fa haz\u0131rl\u0131kl\u0131 olunmas\u0131 gerekti\u011fine i\u015faret ediyor ve baz\u0131 opsiyon stratejilerini cazip k\u0131l\u0131yor. B\u00fcy\u00fck veri a\u00e7\u0131klamalar\u0131 \u00f6ncesinde, \u00f6rne\u011fin EUR\/USD\u2019de uzun straddle gibi pozisyonlarla olas\u0131 fiyat hareketi s\u0131\u00e7ramas\u0131na haz\u0131rlanman\u0131n temkinli bir ad\u0131m olabilece\u011fini d\u00fc\u015f\u00fcn\u00fcyoruz. Paritede z\u0131mni volatilite, y\u0131l i\u00e7indeki dip seviyelerinden yukar\u0131 y\u00f6nl\u00fc hareket ederek piyasan\u0131n daha fazla riski fiyatlamaya ba\u015flad\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 g\u00f6steriyor.<\/p>\n

Fed\u2019in faizleri y\u00fcksek seviyelerde tutma taahh\u00fcd\u00fc, piyasan\u0131n ana temas\u0131 olmaya devam ediyor ve bu durumun ABD Dolar\u0131\u2019n\u0131 desteklemesi bekleniyor. May\u0131s ay\u0131na ili\u015fkin son ABD T\u00dcFE verisinin h\u00e2l\u00e2 inat\u00e7\u0131 \u015fekilde %2,8 seviyesinde gelmesiyle enflasyon, Fed\u2019in %2 hedefinin \u00fczerinde kalmay\u0131 s\u00fcrd\u00fcr\u00fcyor. Bu da Fed\u2019in faiz indirimine giden yolda b\u00fcy\u00fck merkez bankalar\u0131 aras\u0131nda en ge\u00e7 hareket edenlerden biri olaca\u011f\u0131 beklentisini peki\u015ftiriyor.<\/p>\n

Ay\u0131n ba\u015f\u0131nda ECB\u2019nin faiz indirimine gitmesinin ard\u0131ndan, gelecekteki gev\u015femenin h\u0131z\u0131na dair sinyalleri yak\u0131ndan izliyoruz. Politika yap\u0131c\u0131lardan gelebilecek \u015fahin bir ton veya ilave indirimlere ba\u011fl\u0131l\u0131k konusunda isteksizlik, Euro\u2019ya k\u0131sa vadeli bir miktar destek sa\u011flayabilir. Tarihsel olarak, Haziran 2024\u2019tekine benzer ilk faiz indiriminin ard\u0131ndan, merkez bankas\u0131n\u0131n ileriye d\u00f6n\u00fck y\u00f6nlendirmesi (forward guidance) para biriminin de\u011ferinde birincil belirleyici h\u00e2line gelir.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Hemen i\u015flem yapmaya ba\u015flay\u0131n \u2014 ger\u00e7ek VT Markets hesab\u0131n\u0131z\u0131 olu\u015fturmak i\u00e7in buraya<\/a> t\u0131klay\u0131n.<\/b>\n\n<\/p>","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

Jeopolitik man\u015fetler ve merkez bankas\u0131 ayr\u0131\u015fmas\u0131 EUR\/USD\u2019de y\u00f6n aray\u0131\u015f\u0131n\u0131 k\u0131z\u0131\u015ft\u0131r\u0131yor! Parite 1,1385\u2019te yatay; g\u00f6zler ECB forumu, ABD istihdam\u0131, Fed\u2019in \u015fahin duru\u015fu ve artan z\u0131mni volatilitede.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":87,"featured_media":50005,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[71],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-50221","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-live-updates"],"acf":{"acf_article_selection_author":null},"aioseo_notices":[],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/50221","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/87"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=50221"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/50221\/revisions"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/50005"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=50221"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=50221"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=50221"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}