USD\/CHF, Pazartesi g\u00fcn\u00fc Asya i\u015flemlerinde ABD Dolar\u0131\u2019n\u0131n istikrar\u0131n\u0131 korumas\u0131 ve piyasalar\u0131n ABD-\u0130ran aras\u0131ndaki son askeri \u00e7at\u0131\u015fmalar ile ge\u00e7ici ate\u015fkesi tartmas\u0131yla, ikinci seansta da b\u00fcy\u00fck \u00f6l\u00e7\u00fcde de\u011fi\u015fmeden kalarak 0,8100 civar\u0131nda i\u015flem g\u00f6rd\u00fc. Orta Do\u011fu\u2019dan gelen yeni man\u015fetlerle risk i\u015ftah\u0131 y\u00f6n de\u011fi\u015ftirirken, fiyat hareketleri s\u0131n\u0131rl\u0131 kald\u0131. Per\u015fembe g\u00fcn\u00fc kimli\u011fi belirsiz bir cismin bir y\u00fck gemisine isabet etmesinin ard\u0131ndan tansiyon y\u00fckseldi ve taraflar, 17 Haziran\u2019da ilan edilen ge\u00e7ici ate\u015fkesin ihlal edildi\u011fi su\u00e7lamalar\u0131n\u0131 kar\u015f\u0131l\u0131kl\u0131 olarak y\u00f6neltti.<\/p>\n\n
Ate\u015fkesin g\u00fcvenli liman talebini azaltmas\u0131yla \u0130svi\u00e7re Frang\u0131 zay\u0131flarken, parite bant i\u00e7inde kald\u0131. Ayr\u0131 olarak, \u0130svi\u00e7re Merkez Bankas\u0131 (SNB) politika faizini \u00fcst \u00fcste d\u00f6rd\u00fcnc\u00fc toplant\u0131da da %0\u2019da tuttu ve bu duru\u015fun fiyat istikrar\u0131 ile b\u00fcy\u00fcmeyi destekledi\u011fini belirtti. SNB ayr\u0131ca enflasyon g\u00f6r\u00fcn\u00fcm\u00fcn\u00fc yukar\u0131 y\u00f6nl\u00fc revize etti ve gerekli g\u00f6r\u00fclmesi halinde d\u00f6viz piyasalar\u0131na m\u00fcdahaleye haz\u0131r oldu\u011funu yineledi.<\/p>\n\n
0,8100 \u00e7evresindeki mevcut istikrar\u0131, 17 Haziran\u2019da tesis edilen k\u0131r\u0131lgan ABD-\u0130ran ate\u015fkesi kaynakl\u0131 ge\u00e7ici bir durum olarak g\u00f6r\u00fcyoruz. Ge\u00e7en Per\u015fembe ya\u015fanan cismin isabet etmesi olay\u0131 sonras\u0131nda jeopolitik gerilimler d\u00fc\u015f\u00fck yo\u011funlukta s\u00fcrerken, piyasan\u0131n ani bir hareket riskini yeterince fiyatlamad\u0131\u011f\u0131 kanaatindeyiz. Bu nedenle, paritede 1 ayl\u0131k ima edilen volatilitenin %5,2\u2019ye kadar gerileyerek y\u0131l\u0131n dip seviyelerine yakla\u015fmas\u0131yla, olas\u0131 bir volatilite s\u0131\u00e7ramas\u0131na y\u00f6nelik opsiyon stratejilerini de\u011ferlendiriyoruz.<\/p>\n\n
Ate\u015fkesin bozulmas\u0131 halinde, g\u00fcvenli limana ka\u00e7\u0131\u015f\u0131n ABD Dolar\u0131\u2019n\u0131 Frang\u2019a k\u0131yasla daha fazla desteklemesini ve USD\/CHF\u2019nin sert \u015fekilde yukar\u0131 y\u00f6nl\u00fc hareket etmesini bekliyoruz. Benzer risk olaylar\u0131na ili\u015fkin tarihsel verilerde, \u00f6rne\u011fin Ukrayna sava\u015f\u0131n\u0131n \u015eubat 2022\u2019de ilk t\u0131rmanma d\u00f6neminde, Dolar Endeksi\u2019nin (DXY) iki haftadan k\u0131sa s\u00fcrede %3\u2019\u00fcn \u00fczerinde y\u00fckseldi\u011fi g\u00f6r\u00fcld\u00fc. Bu \u00e7er\u00e7evede, yeniden \u00e7at\u0131\u015fma riskine kar\u015f\u0131 maliyet-etkin bir korunma arac\u0131 olarak, A\u011fustos vadeli 0,8300 kullan\u0131m fiyatl\u0131 paran\u0131n d\u0131\u015f\u0131nda (out-of-the-money) al\u0131m (call) opsiyonlar\u0131n\u0131n sat\u0131n al\u0131nmas\u0131n\u0131 de\u011ferlendiriyoruz.<\/p>\n\n
SNB\u2019nin kur piyasalar\u0131na m\u00fcdahaleye haz\u0131r duru\u015funun, riskten ka\u00e7\u0131\u015f senaryosunda dahi Frang\u2019daki belirgin de\u011ferlenmeyi s\u0131n\u0131rlamas\u0131 muhtemel. Son olarak 950 milyar CHF\u2019nin \u00fczerinde raporlanan SNB d\u00f6viz rezervleri, CHF\u2019nin \u00e7ok h\u0131zl\u0131 g\u00fc\u00e7lenmesi halinde para birimini zay\u0131flatmak i\u00e7in \u00f6nemli bir m\u00fcdahale kapasitesi sa\u011fl\u0131yor. Bu da, kriz an\u0131nda paritede en d\u00fc\u015f\u00fck diren\u00e7li y\u00f6n\u00fcn yukar\u0131 oldu\u011fu g\u00f6r\u00fc\u015f\u00fcm\u00fcz\u00fc g\u00fc\u00e7lendirirken, k\u0131sa (short) pozisyonlar\u0131 cazip olmaktan \u00e7\u0131kar\u0131yor.<\/p>\n\n
\u00d6n\u00fcm\u00fczdeki haftalarda Doha\u2019daki bar\u0131\u015f g\u00f6r\u00fc\u015fmelerinin ba\u015far\u0131l\u0131 olmas\u0131 durumunda, paritenin jeopolitikten ziyade g\u00f6reli enflasyon verilerinin etkisiyle bant i\u00e7inde kalmas\u0131n\u0131 bekliyoruz. Paritenin 14 g\u00fcnl\u00fck Ortalama Ger\u00e7ek Aral\u0131k (ATR) g\u00f6stergesi \u015fimdiden yaln\u0131zca 35 pip ile \u00e7ok ayl\u0131k dip seviyeye gerileyerek mevcut karars\u0131zl\u0131\u011f\u0131 yans\u0131t\u0131yor. Bu ortam, strangle sat\u0131\u015f\u0131 gibi bant-trading stratejilerine uygun olabilir; ancak yaln\u0131zca son derece s\u0131k\u0131 risk y\u00f6netimiyle.<\/p>\n\n\n\n