{"id":50213,"date":"2026-06-29T06:23:34","date_gmt":"2026-06-29T06:23:34","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/uncategorized\/eur-jpy-kirilgan-abd-iran-ateskesi-ve-ecb-forumu-piyasalari-tedirgin-ederken-184un-uzerinde-tutunuyor\/"},"modified":"2026-06-29T06:23:34","modified_gmt":"2026-06-29T06:23:34","slug":"eur-jpy-kirilgan-abd-iran-ateskesi-ve-ecb-forumu-piyasalari-tedirgin-ederken-184un-uzerinde-tutunuyor","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/live-updates\/eur-jpy-kirilgan-abd-iran-ateskesi-ve-ecb-forumu-piyasalari-tedirgin-ederken-184un-uzerinde-tutunuyor\/","title":{"rendered":"EUR\/JPY, K\u0131r\u0131lgan ABD-\u0130ran Ate\u015fkesi ve ECB Forumu Piyasalar\u0131 Tedirgin Ederken 184\u2019\u00fcn \u00dczerinde Tutunuyor"},"content":{"rendered":"

EUR\/JPY, pazartesi sabah\u0131 erken Avrupa i\u015flemlerinde 184,20 civar\u0131nda daha g\u00fc\u00e7l\u00fc seyrederken 184,00 seviyesinin \u00fczerinde tutundu; genel risk i\u015ftah\u0131 ise k\u0131r\u0131lgan ABD-\u0130ran ate\u015fkesine duyarl\u0131l\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 korudu. \u0130ki taraf hafta sonu boyunca kar\u015f\u0131l\u0131kl\u0131 yeni sert a\u00e7\u0131klamalarda bulundu ancak ard\u0131ndan sald\u0131r\u0131lar\u0131 durdurma ve sal\u0131 g\u00fcn\u00fc Katar\u2019da g\u00f6r\u00fc\u015fme konusunda anla\u015ft\u0131. Ayr\u0131 olarak, olas\u0131 Japon piyasa m\u00fcdahalesi s\u00f6ylemleri JPY\u2019ye arka planda destek sa\u011flad\u0131; Japonya Kabine Ba\u015f Sekreteri Minoru Kihara, gerekmesi halinde d\u00f6viz hareketlerine kar\u015f\u0131 uygun ad\u0131mlar at\u0131laca\u011f\u0131n\u0131 s\u00f6yledi.<\/p>\n

Bu hafta ayr\u0131ca, piyasalar d\u00fc\u015fen petrol fiyatlar\u0131 ve hisse senedi piyasas\u0131 oynakl\u0131\u011f\u0131 e\u015fli\u011finde de\u011fi\u015fen merkez bankas\u0131 politika beklentilerini izlerken, Avrupa Merkez Bankas\u0131\u2019n\u0131n (ECB) pazartesi Ba\u015fkan Christine Lagarde\u2019\u0131n a\u00e7\u0131l\u0131\u015f\u0131n\u0131 yapt\u0131\u011f\u0131 y\u0131ll\u0131k forumu da oda\u011fa al\u0131yor. Grafiklerde \u00e7apraz kur 100 g\u00fcnl\u00fck SMA ve Bollinger orta band\u0131n\u0131n alt\u0131nda d\u00fc\u015f\u00fc\u015f e\u011filimini korurken, RSI (14) 42,65 ile n\u00f6tr 50 \u00e7izgisinin alt\u0131nda kald\u0131. Destek, alt Bollinger band\u0131 olan 183,55 civar\u0131nda g\u00f6r\u00fcl\u00fcrken, 100 g\u00fcnl\u00fck SMA\u2019daki 184,55\u2019in \u00fczerinde g\u00fcnl\u00fck kapan\u0131\u015f bask\u0131y\u0131 azaltarak 184,95\u2019i g\u00fcndeme getirebilir; bir sonraki seviye ise \u00fcst banda denk gelen 186,35.<\/p>\n

Teknik Diren\u00e7 ve Opsiyon Stratejileri<\/h3>\n

Bug\u00fcn, 29 Haziran 2026 itibar\u0131yla EUR\/JPY\u2019nin 184,55 yak\u0131n\u0131ndaki kritik 100 g\u00fcnl\u00fck hareketli ortalaman\u0131n alt\u0131nda zorland\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 g\u00f6r\u00fcyoruz. Bu seviye \u00f6nemli bir tavan g\u00f6revi g\u00f6r\u00fcyor; 184,60 \u00fczerindeki kullan\u0131m fiyatlar\u0131yla al\u0131m (call) opsiyonlar\u0131n\u0131n sat\u0131lmas\u0131 veya ay\u0131 call spread (bear call spread) stratejilerinin uygulanmas\u0131 temkinli bir yakla\u015f\u0131m olabilir. Bu y\u00f6ntem, yak\u0131n vadede teknik direncin korunaca\u011f\u0131 beklentisiyle prim toplanmas\u0131na imk\u00e2n tan\u0131r.<\/p>\n

Japon para birimine y\u00f6nelik m\u00fcdahale tehdidinin s\u00fcrmesi, paritenin yukar\u0131 y\u00f6n potansiyeline dair d\u00fc\u015f\u00fc\u015f e\u011filimimize a\u011f\u0131rl\u0131k kat\u0131yor. Japonya Maliye Bakanl\u0131\u011f\u0131, 2026\u2019n\u0131n ikinci \u00e7eyre\u011finde m\u00fcdahale i\u00e7in rekor 11 trilyon yen harcand\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 bildirdi; bu da 2022 sonundaki agresif ad\u0131mlara benzer \u015fekilde kararl\u0131l\u0131\u011f\u0131n bir hat\u0131rlat\u0131c\u0131s\u0131. Bu ge\u00e7mi\u015f, sert bir y\u00fckseli\u015fin muhtemelen resmi sat\u0131\u015flarla kar\u015f\u0131lanaca\u011f\u0131n\u0131, dolay\u0131s\u0131yla uzun pozisyonlar\u0131n riskli olabilece\u011fini g\u00f6steriyor.<\/p>\n

Olay Riskleri Ortam\u0131nda Oynakl\u0131k Stratejileri<\/h3>\n

Bununla birlikte, bu haftaki ECB forumundan gelebilecek olas\u0131 yukar\u0131 y\u00f6nl\u00fc s\u00fcrprizleri de hesaba katmak gerekiyor. Euro B\u00f6lgesi man\u015fet enflasyonunun may\u0131sta beklentilerin aksine %2,9\u2019a y\u00fckselmesiyle, ECB yetkililerinden gelebilecek \u015fahin mesajlar Euro\u2019da sert, ancak muhtemelen ge\u00e7ici bir ralli tetikleyebilir. Bu ikili (binary) risk, \u00f6n\u00fcm\u00fczdeki haftalar i\u00e7in oynakl\u0131k sat\u0131n almay\u0131 cazip k\u0131l\u0131yor.<\/p>\n

Birbiriyle \u00e7eli\u015fen temel dinamikler g\u00f6z \u00f6n\u00fcne al\u0131nd\u0131\u011f\u0131nda, uzun straddle veya strangle stratejilerinin etkili olabilece\u011fi g\u00f6r\u00fc\u015f\u00fcndeyiz. EUR\/JPY\u2019de bir ayl\u0131k z\u0131mni oynakl\u0131k %12,5\u2019e y\u00fckselerek bu \u00e7eyre\u011fin zirvesine \u00e7\u0131kt\u0131; bu, hem jeopolitik hem de merkez bankas\u0131 politikalar\u0131na ili\u015fkin piyasa belirsizli\u011fini yans\u0131t\u0131yor. Bu strateji, haftan\u0131n geli\u015fmelerinin sonucunu tahmin etme gere\u011fini ortadan kald\u0131rarak, her iki y\u00f6nde de anlaml\u0131 bir fiyat hareketinden faydalanmay\u0131 hedefler.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Hemen i\u015flem yapmaya ba\u015flay\u0131n \u2014 ger\u00e7ek VT Markets hesab\u0131n\u0131z\u0131 olu\u015fturmak i\u00e7in buraya<\/a> t\u0131klay\u0131n.<\/b>\n\n<\/p>","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

K\u0131r\u0131lgan ABD-\u0130ran ate\u015fkesi ve Japon m\u00fcdahale s\u00f6ylemleriyle EUR\/JPY 184,20\u2019de; trend bask\u0131l\u0131. 184,55 (100g SMA) kritik. Diren\u00e7te bear call spread, ECB s\u00fcrprizine kar\u015f\u0131 straddle\/strangle; z\u0131mni oynakl\u0131k %12,5.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":87,"featured_media":49997,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[71],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-50213","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-live-updates"],"acf":{"acf_article_selection_author":null},"aioseo_notices":[],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/50213","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/87"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=50213"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/50213\/revisions"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/49997"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=50213"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=50213"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=50213"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}