{"id":50208,"date":"2026-06-29T05:22:32","date_gmt":"2026-06-29T05:22:32","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/uncategorized\/fed-faiz-artirim-olasiliklari-ve-petrol-kaynakli-riskler-artarken-dolar-abd-istihdam-verisi-oncesinde-yatay-seyretti\/"},"modified":"2026-06-29T05:22:32","modified_gmt":"2026-06-29T05:22:32","slug":"fed-faiz-artirim-olasiliklari-ve-petrol-kaynakli-riskler-artarken-dolar-abd-istihdam-verisi-oncesinde-yatay-seyretti","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/live-updates\/fed-faiz-artirim-olasiliklari-ve-petrol-kaynakli-riskler-artarken-dolar-abd-istihdam-verisi-oncesinde-yatay-seyretti\/","title":{"rendered":"Fed faiz art\u0131r\u0131m olas\u0131l\u0131klar\u0131 ve petrol kaynakl\u0131 riskler artarken dolar, ABD istihdam verisi \u00f6ncesinde yatay seyretti"},"content":{"rendered":"

ABD dolar\u0131 haftaya \u00e7ok az de\u011fi\u015fimle ba\u015flad\u0131; ABD Dolar Endeksi (DXY) 101,35 civar\u0131nda yatay seyrediyor. Piyasalar, per\u015fembe g\u00fcn\u00fc a\u00e7\u0131klanacak Haziran Tar\u0131m D\u0131\u015f\u0131 \u0130stihdam (NFP) verisinin \u00f6ne \u00e7\u0131kt\u0131\u011f\u0131 yo\u011fun bir ABD veri takvimine haz\u0131rlan\u0131yor. Buna ek olarak May\u0131s JOLTS a\u00e7\u0131k i\u015f say\u0131s\u0131 ile Haziran ISM imalat ve hizmet PMI verileri de izlenecek. Politika beklentileri g\u00fcndemin merkezinde kal\u0131rken, CME FedWatch arac\u0131 bu y\u0131l en az bir ABD Merkez Bankas\u0131 (Fed) faiz art\u0131\u015f\u0131 olas\u0131l\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 yakla\u015f\u0131k %90 olarak fiyatl\u0131yor.<\/p>\n

Dolar\u0131n daha geni\u015f \u00e7aptaki rol\u00fc, k\u00fcresel ticaret ve rezervlerdeki bask\u0131n konumuyla desteklenmeye devam ediyor. K\u00fcresel d\u00f6viz piyasas\u0131 i\u015flem hacminin %88\u2019inden fazlas\u0131n\u0131 olu\u015fturuyor; 2022 verilerine g\u00f6re bu, g\u00fcnl\u00fck ortalama 6,6 trilyon dolarl\u0131k i\u015flemlere kar\u015f\u0131l\u0131k geliyor. Fed\u2019in ikili hedefi fiyat istikrar\u0131 ve tam istihdam \u00fczerine kurulu olup, %2 enflasyon hedefi referans kabul ediliyor. Faizlerin \u00f6tesinde, niceliksel gev\u015feme (QE) kredi ve likiditeyi art\u0131rarak para birimini zay\u0131flatma e\u011filimindeyken; niceliksel s\u0131k\u0131la\u015fma (QT) bunun tersidir ve genellikle dolar\u0131 destekleyici etki yapar. Ayr\u0131 olarak, k\u00fcresel enerji ak\u0131\u015f\u0131n\u0131n be\u015fte birinin ge\u00e7ti\u011fi bir bo\u011faz olan H\u00fcrm\u00fcz Bo\u011faz\u0131 yak\u0131n\u0131ndaki sald\u0131r\u0131lar\u0131n ard\u0131ndan Katar\u2019da olas\u0131 ABD-\u0130ran g\u00f6r\u00fc\u015fmelerine de dikkatler \u00e7evrilmi\u015f durumda.<\/p>\n

Yakla\u015fan ABD Ekonomik Verileri ve Piyasa Oynakl\u0131\u011f\u0131<\/h3>\n

ABD Dolar Endeksi haftaya 101,35 civar\u0131nda yatay ba\u015fl\u0131yor; ancak per\u015fembe g\u00fcnk\u00fc veri a\u00e7\u0131klamalar\u0131 \u00f6ncesinde oynakl\u0131\u011f\u0131n belirgin bi\u00e7imde artmas\u0131n\u0131 bekliyoruz. Bu sakin d\u00f6nem, d\u00f6viz piyasalar\u0131 i\u00e7in \u201cf\u0131rt\u0131na \u00f6ncesi sessizlik\u201d olabilir. Bunun, belirgin bir fiyat hareketine pozisyonlanmak a\u00e7\u0131s\u0131ndan bir f\u0131rsat sundu\u011funu d\u00fc\u015f\u00fcn\u00fcyoruz.<\/p>\n

Per\u015fembe g\u00fcn\u00fc a\u00e7\u0131klanacak Haziran NFP raporu, yak\u0131ndan izledi\u011fimiz ana g\u00fcndem maddesi. Fed\u2019in art\u0131k ileriye d\u00f6n\u00fck y\u00f6nlendirme (forward guidance) vermemesi nedeniyle, bu tek veri noktas\u0131 para politikas\u0131 beklentileri a\u00e7\u0131s\u0131ndan \u00e7ok daha fazla a\u011f\u0131rl\u0131k ta\u015f\u0131yor. G\u00fc\u00e7l\u00fc bir veri, daha y\u00fcksek faizler ve daha g\u00fc\u00e7l\u00fc dolar senaryosunu neredeyse kesin olarak peki\u015ftirecektir.<\/p>\n

Beklenti, yakla\u015f\u0131k 190 bin ki\u015filik istihdam art\u0131\u015f\u0131 y\u00f6n\u00fcnde; bu da May\u0131s ay\u0131ndaki daha zay\u0131f 175 binlik veriye g\u00f6re belirgin bir iyile\u015fme anlam\u0131na geliyor. Son \u00c7ekirdek T\u00dcFE verisinin enflasyonun %3,6 ile kal\u0131c\u0131l\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 korudu\u011funu g\u00f6stermesiyle birlikte, g\u00fc\u00e7l\u00fc bir istihdam raporu Fed\u2019in faiz art\u0131r\u0131m\u0131n\u0131 \u201ckilitleyebilir\u201d. CME FedWatch arac\u0131 da h\u00e2lihaz\u0131rda bu y\u0131l en az bir faiz art\u0131\u015f\u0131 olas\u0131l\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 %90\u2019a yak\u0131n g\u00f6steriyor.<\/p>\n

\u0130\u015flem F\u0131rsatlar\u0131 ve Jeopolitik Belirsizlikler<\/h3>\n

Beklenen oynakl\u0131k art\u0131\u015f\u0131 dikkate al\u0131nd\u0131\u011f\u0131nda, maj\u00f6r dolar paritelerinde k\u0131sa vadeli opsiyonlarda de\u011fer g\u00f6r\u00fcyoruz. NFP a\u00e7\u0131klamas\u0131 \u00f6ncesinde straddle veya strangle al\u0131m\u0131, y\u00f6n ba\u011f\u0131ms\u0131z \u015fekilde beklenen fiyat sal\u0131n\u0131m\u0131n\u0131 i\u015flemeye y\u00f6nelik sa\u011flam bir strateji olarak \u00f6ne \u00e7\u0131k\u0131yor. Per\u015fembe g\u00fcnk\u00fc a\u00e7\u0131klamaya yakla\u015ft\u0131k\u00e7a z\u0131mni oynakl\u0131\u011f\u0131n y\u00fckselmesi muhtemel.<\/p>\n

Bu haftaki ISM PMI verileri de ekonomik sa\u011fl\u0131\u011fa ili\u015fkin ek sinyaller i\u00e7in takip edilecek. Ayr\u0131ca ABD ile \u0130ran aras\u0131ndaki devam eden g\u00f6r\u00fc\u015fmeler piyasalar i\u00e7in \u00f6nemli bir \u201cjoker\u201d niteli\u011finde. H\u00fcrm\u00fcz Bo\u011faz\u0131\u2019ndaki gerilim, Brent petrol fiyatlar\u0131n\u0131 varil ba\u015f\u0131na 95 dolar\u0131n \u00fczerine ta\u015f\u0131yarak Fed\u2019in g\u00f6z ard\u0131 edemeyece\u011fi k\u00fcresel enflasyonist bask\u0131lar\u0131 art\u0131rd\u0131.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Hemen i\u015flem yapmaya ba\u015flay\u0131n \u2014 ger\u00e7ek VT Markets hesab\u0131n\u0131z\u0131 olu\u015fturmak i\u00e7in buraya<\/a> t\u0131klay\u0131n.<\/b>\n\n<\/p>","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

DXY 101,35\u2019te yatay: F\u0131rt\u0131na \u00f6ncesi sessizlik mi? Per\u015fembe NFP (beklenti 190 bin) ve ISM\/JOLTS ile volatilite artabilir; FedWatch %90 faiz art\u0131\u015f\u0131, H\u00fcrm\u00fcz gerilimi petrolde enflasyonu k\u00f6r\u00fckl\u00fcyor.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":87,"featured_media":49977,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[71],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-50208","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-live-updates"],"acf":{"acf_article_selection_author":null},"aioseo_notices":[],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/50208","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/87"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=50208"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/50208\/revisions"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/49977"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=50208"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=50208"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=50208"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}