{"id":50207,"date":"2026-06-29T04:53:31","date_gmt":"2026-06-29T04:53:31","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/uncategorized\/usd-jpy-abd-iran-yumusamasinin-japonyanin-mudahale-riskini-dengelemesiyle-abd-tarim-disi-istihdam-verisi-oncesinde-162-civarinda-dalgalaniyor\/"},"modified":"2026-06-29T04:53:31","modified_gmt":"2026-06-29T04:53:31","slug":"usd-jpy-abd-iran-yumusamasinin-japonyanin-mudahale-riskini-dengelemesiyle-abd-tarim-disi-istihdam-verisi-oncesinde-162-civarinda-dalgalaniyor","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/live-updates\/usd-jpy-abd-iran-yumusamasinin-japonyanin-mudahale-riskini-dengelemesiyle-abd-tarim-disi-istihdam-verisi-oncesinde-162-civarinda-dalgalaniyor\/","title":{"rendered":"USD\/JPY, ABD-\u0130ran yumu\u015famas\u0131n\u0131n Japonya\u2019n\u0131n m\u00fcdahale riskini dengelemesiyle ABD tar\u0131m d\u0131\u015f\u0131 istihdam verisi \u00f6ncesinde 162 civar\u0131nda dalgalan\u0131yor"},"content":{"rendered":"

USD\/JPY, Pazartesi g\u00fcnk\u00fc Asya seans\u0131nda 161,80 civar\u0131na do\u011fru s\u0131n\u0131rl\u0131 y\u00fckseldi; piyasalar, yenilenen ABD-\u0130ran diplomasisini Japon yeni i\u00e7in olas\u0131 m\u00fcdahale riskine kar\u015f\u0131 tartarken, kur 162,00 psikolojik seviyesi yak\u0131n\u0131nda dalgal\u0131 bir seyir izledi. Dikkatler ayr\u0131ca Per\u015fembe g\u00fcn\u00fc a\u00e7\u0131klanacak ABD Haziran Tar\u0131m D\u0131\u015f\u0131 \u0130stihdam (Nonfarm Payrolls) verisine \u00e7evriliyor; bu veri, k\u0131sa vadeli oynakl\u0131k i\u00e7in potansiyel bir kataliz\u00f6r.<\/p>\n

Bir ABD y\u00f6netimi yetkilisi, H\u00fcrm\u00fcz Bo\u011faz\u0131 yak\u0131n\u0131nda kar\u015f\u0131l\u0131kl\u0131 ate\u015f a\u00e7\u0131lmas\u0131n\u0131n ard\u0131ndan ABD ve \u0130ran\u2019\u0131n \u201c\u015fimdilik geri ad\u0131m ataca\u011f\u0131n\u0131\u201d s\u00f6yledi; ge\u00e7ici anla\u015fma hen\u00fcz su yoluna yans\u0131mam\u0131\u015f olsa da gemilerin serbest\u00e7e hareket edebilece\u011fini ekledi. Axios, iki \u00fclkenin Sal\u0131 g\u00fcn\u00fc Katar\u2019da g\u00f6r\u00fc\u015fmeyi planlad\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 bildirdi. Japonya\u2019da Kabine Ba\u015f Sekreteri Minoru Kihara, gerekirse d\u00f6viz hareketlerine kar\u015f\u0131 uygun ad\u0131mlar atacaklar\u0131n\u0131 s\u00f6ylerken, BoJ y\u00f6netim kurulu \u00fcyesi Naoki Tamura birka\u00e7 ayda bir faiz art\u0131r\u0131lmas\u0131n\u0131 ve art\u0131\u015flar\u0131n h\u0131zland\u0131r\u0131lmas\u0131na haz\u0131r olunmas\u0131n\u0131 savundu. BoJ, 30\u201331 Temmuz\u2019da toplanacak ve piyasa genel olarak faizi sabit tutmas\u0131n\u0131 bekliyor; ancak banka \u00e7eyreklik tahminlerini g\u00fcncelleyecek. Haziran\u2019daki faiz art\u0131\u015f\u0131 \u00f6ncesinde yap\u0131lan Reuters anketi, ekonomistlerin \u00e7o\u011funun faizin 4\u00c7\u2019de %1,25\u2019e ula\u015fmas\u0131n\u0131 bekledi\u011fini g\u00f6stermi\u015fti.<\/p>\n

Mevcut Piyasa Dinamikleri ve Riskler<\/h3>\n

29 Haziran 2026 tarihi itibar\u0131yla USD\/JPY\u2019nin 161,80 \u00e7evresinde son derece dar ve gergin bir bantta i\u015flem g\u00f6rd\u00fc\u011f\u00fcn\u00fc izliyoruz. ABD ile \u0130ran aras\u0131ndaki g\u00f6r\u00fcn\u00fcr tansiyon d\u00fc\u015f\u00fc\u015f\u00fc genel risk alg\u0131s\u0131n\u0131 azalt\u0131yor; bu da normalde g\u00fcvenli liman niteli\u011findeki Yen\u2019i zay\u0131flat\u0131r. Bu durum, temel dinamiklerin resm\u00ee uyar\u0131larla \u00e7eli\u015fti\u011fi zorlu bir tablo yarat\u0131yor.<\/p>\n

Bize g\u00f6re \u00e7ok k\u0131sa vadede en \u00f6nemli risk, paritenin 162,00 seviyesine yakla\u015fmas\u0131yla birlikte Japon otoritelerinden gelebilecek m\u00fcdahale. 2024 bahar\u0131nda yetkililerin kuru savunmak i\u00e7in 9,8 trilyon yenin \u00fczerinde harcama yapt\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 g\u00f6rm\u00fc\u015ft\u00fck; bu da kararl\u0131 hareket etmeye istekli olduklar\u0131n\u0131 g\u00f6steriyor. Bu nedenle, bu psikolojik bariyerin \u00fczerindeki kullan\u0131mlara sahip USD\/JPY al\u0131m opsiyonlar\u0131nda (call) temkinli olunmal\u0131; olas\u0131 bir m\u00fcdahale, bu opsiyonlar\u0131 \u00e7ok h\u0131zl\u0131 bi\u00e7imde de\u011fersizle\u015ftirebilir.<\/p>\n

Dolar i\u00e7in alttaki temel destek, ABD ile Japonya aras\u0131ndaki geni\u015f faiz fark\u0131 nedeniyle g\u00fc\u00e7l\u00fc kalmaya devam ediyor. BoJ\u2019un Haziran\u2019daki son faiz art\u0131\u015f\u0131na ra\u011fmen, ABD 10 y\u0131ll\u0131k tahvil faizi ile Japon muadili aras\u0131ndaki fark h\u00e2l\u00e2 375 baz puan\u0131n \u00fczerinde. Bu yap\u0131sal bask\u0131, m\u00fcdahale kaynakl\u0131 USD\/JPY d\u00fc\u015f\u00fc\u015flerinin piyasada b\u00fcy\u00fck olas\u0131l\u0131kla \u201cal\u0131m f\u0131rsat\u0131\u201d olarak g\u00f6r\u00fclmesine yol a\u00e7abilir.<\/p>\n

Temel Kataliz\u00f6rler ve Daha Uzun Vadeli Perspektif<\/h3>\n

Bu Per\u015fembe g\u00fcnk\u00fc ABD Tar\u0131m D\u0131\u015f\u0131 \u0130stihdam verisi, g\u00fcndemdeki ba\u015fl\u0131ca kataliz\u00f6r ve dengeyi bozabilecek bir unsur. Mevcut piyasa beklentileri, yakla\u015f\u0131k 195 bin ile g\u00fc\u00e7l\u00fc fakat ola\u011fan\u00fcst\u00fc olmayan bir istihdam art\u0131\u015f\u0131na i\u015faret ediyor; bu da dolar\u0131 destekli tutabilir. Beklentilerin belirgin \u00fczerinde gelecek bir veri, USD\/JPY\u2019yi do\u011frudan m\u00fcdahale b\u00f6lgesine iterek a\u015f\u0131r\u0131 oynakl\u0131k yaratabilir.<\/p>\n

Daha uzun vadede, BoJ y\u00f6netim kurulu \u00fcyelerinden gelen \u015fahin a\u00e7\u0131klamalar\u0131 izliyoruz; bu mesajlar ilave faiz art\u0131\u015flar\u0131n\u0131n yolda oldu\u011funa i\u015faret ediyor. Piyasa, y\u0131l bitmeden bir art\u0131\u015f daha olas\u0131l\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 kademeli olarak fiyatlamaya ba\u015flad\u0131; bu da zaman i\u00e7inde Yen\u2019i destekleyebilir. \u015eimdilik, short straddle veya iron condor gibi stratejilerle oynakl\u0131\u011f\u0131 satmak, yat\u0131r\u0131mc\u0131larla h\u00fck\u00fcmet aras\u0131ndaki mevcut \u201cbilek g\u00fcre\u015fi\u201dnden yararlanarak daha temkinli bir yakla\u015f\u0131m olabilir.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Hemen i\u015flem yapmaya ba\u015flay\u0131n \u2014 ger\u00e7ek VT Markets hesab\u0131n\u0131z\u0131 olu\u015fturmak i\u00e7in buraya<\/a> t\u0131klay\u0131n.<\/b>\n\n<\/p>","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

USD\/JPY 161,80\u2019de s\u0131k\u0131\u015ft\u0131; 162,00 e\u015fi\u011fi m\u00fcdahale alarm\u0131. ABD-\u0130ran tansiyonunun d\u00fc\u015fmesi Yen\u2019i zay\u0131flat\u0131yor. G\u00f6zler Per\u015fembe NFP\u2019de; g\u00fc\u00e7l\u00fc veri oynakl\u0131\u011f\u0131 art\u0131rabilir. BoJ \u015fahin.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":87,"featured_media":49975,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[71],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-50207","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-live-updates"],"acf":{"acf_article_selection_author":null},"aioseo_notices":[],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/50207","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/87"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=50207"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/50207\/revisions"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/49975"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=50207"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=50207"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=50207"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}