Alt\u0131n (XAU\/USD), Pazartesi g\u00fcn\u00fc Asya i\u015flemlerinde yakla\u015f\u0131k 4.060 dolara gerilerken, ak\u0131mlar ABD-\u0130ran g\u00f6r\u00fc\u015fmelerine ili\u015fkin belirsizlik ve \u015fahin bir Fed beklentisi nedeniyle bask\u0131 alt\u0131nda kald\u0131. Axios\u2019un haberine g\u00f6re ABD ve \u0130ran sald\u0131r\u0131lar\u0131 durdurma konusunda anla\u015ft\u0131 ve Sal\u0131 g\u00fcn\u00fc Katar\u2019\u0131n Doha kentinde bir araya gelmeye haz\u0131rlan\u0131yor; son g\u00fcnlerde H\u00fcrm\u00fcz Bo\u011faz\u0131 yak\u0131nlar\u0131nda ya\u015fanan kar\u015f\u0131l\u0131kl\u0131 sald\u0131r\u0131lar\u0131n ard\u0131ndan bu ad\u0131m geldi. Piyasalar, faiz patikas\u0131na ili\u015fkin daha fazla ipucu i\u00e7in Per\u015fembe g\u00fcn\u00fc a\u00e7\u0131klanacak ABD Tar\u0131m D\u0131\u015f\u0131 \u0130stihdam verisini bekliyor.<\/p>\n
\u0130ran D\u0131\u015fi\u015fleri Bakan\u0131\u2019n\u0131n H\u00fcrm\u00fcz Bo\u011faz\u0131\u2019na ili\u015fkin sorumlulu\u011fun Tahran\u2019da oldu\u011funu s\u00f6ylemesiyle gerilim de\u011fi\u015fkeni g\u00fcndemde kalmay\u0131 s\u00fcrd\u00fcr\u00fcyor; \u0130ranl\u0131 bir yetkili ise trafi\u011fin kendi tercih ettikleri g\u00fczerg\u00e2h\u0131n d\u0131\u015f\u0131na kaymas\u0131 halinde \u201cgerilim ve t\u0131rmanma\u201d uyar\u0131s\u0131nda bulundu. Faiz beklentileri de g\u00fc\u00e7l\u00fc: CME FedWatch Tool\u2019a g\u00f6re yat\u0131r\u0131mc\u0131lar Eyl\u00fcl 2026 gibi erken bir tarihte faiz art\u0131\u015f\u0131 ihtimalini yakla\u015f\u0131k %59,7 olarak fiyatl\u0131yor; ekonomistler ise Haziran ay\u0131nda istihdam art\u0131\u015f\u0131n\u0131 114 bin, i\u015fsizlik oran\u0131n\u0131 da %4,3\u2019te sabit \u00f6ng\u00f6r\u00fcyor. D\u00fcnya Alt\u0131n Konseyi\u2019ne g\u00f6re alt\u0131n talebi e\u011filimleri, 2022\u2019de yakla\u015f\u0131k 70 milyar dolar de\u011ferinde 1.136 ton al\u0131m yapan merkez bankalar\u0131 taraf\u0131ndan desteklenmeyi s\u00fcrd\u00fcr\u00fcyor.<\/p>\n
Alt\u0131n\u0131n 4.060 dolar civar\u0131nda bir miktar sat\u0131\u015f bask\u0131s\u0131yla kar\u015f\u0131la\u015ft\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 g\u00f6r\u00fcyoruz; fiyat, jeopolitik gerilimler ile daha y\u00fcksek faiz olas\u0131l\u0131\u011f\u0131 aras\u0131nda s\u0131k\u0131\u015fm\u0131\u015f durumda. Sal\u0131 g\u00fcnk\u00fc ABD-\u0130ran g\u00f6r\u00fc\u015fmeleri ve Per\u015fembe g\u00fcnk\u00fc kritik ABD istihdam raporu, belirgin bir belirsizlik yarat\u0131yor. Bu g\u00f6r\u00fcn\u00fcm, her iki y\u00f6nde net ve kal\u0131c\u0131 bir trendden ziyade oynakl\u0131kta olas\u0131 bir s\u0131\u00e7ramaya haz\u0131rl\u0131kl\u0131 olunmas\u0131 gerekti\u011fine i\u015faret ediyor.<\/p>\n
Piyasa, Fed\u2019in faiz art\u0131raca\u011f\u0131na giderek daha fazla ikna oluyor. CME\u2019nin FedWatch Tool\u2019u Eyl\u00fcl\u2019e kadar faiz art\u0131\u015f\u0131 olas\u0131l\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 %60\u2019a yak\u0131n g\u00f6sterirken, bu oran ge\u00e7en ay %50\u2019nin hemen alt\u0131ndayd\u0131; bu da piyasa alg\u0131s\u0131nda belirgin bir de\u011fi\u015fime i\u015faret ediyor. Per\u015fembe g\u00fcnk\u00fc Tar\u0131m D\u0131\u015f\u0131 \u0130stihdam verisi 114 bin olarak tahmin ediliyor; ger\u00e7ekle\u015fmenin bu seviyede gelmesi, 2026\u2019n\u0131n ilk \u00e7eyre\u011finde g\u00f6r\u00fclen 150 binlik ortalaman\u0131n alt\u0131nda kalaca\u011f\u0131 i\u00e7in faiz art\u0131\u015f\u0131 beklentilerini bir miktar s\u0131n\u0131rlayabilir.<\/p>\n
Bu \u00f6nemli g\u00fcndem ba\u015fl\u0131klar\u0131 dikkate al\u0131nd\u0131\u011f\u0131nda, beklenen fiyat sal\u0131n\u0131m\u0131n\u0131 opsiyonlarla i\u015flemeye y\u00f6nelik bir yakla\u015f\u0131m\u0131n \u00f6ne \u00e7\u0131kt\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 d\u00fc\u015f\u00fcn\u00fcyoruz. Ayn\u0131 kullan\u0131m fiyat\u0131 ve vadede hem al\u0131m (call) hem sat\u0131m (put) opsiyonu almay\u0131 i\u00e7eren \u201cuzun straddle\u201d stratejisi, bu ortam i\u00e7in uygun g\u00f6r\u00fcn\u00fcyor. Bu pozisyon, haftan\u0131n ilerleyen g\u00fcnlerinde haber ak\u0131\u015f\u0131 kaynakl\u0131 kataliz\u00f6rlerin ard\u0131ndan alt\u0131n fiyat\u0131n\u0131n her iki y\u00f6nde de sert hareket etmesi halinde k\u00e2r \u00fcretebilir.<\/p>\n
G\u00fc\u00e7l\u00fc ABD Dolar\u0131 nedeniyle (yakla\u015f\u0131k alt\u0131 ay\u0131n zirvesi civar\u0131nda i\u015flem g\u00f6r\u00fcyor) a\u015fa\u011f\u0131 y\u00f6nl\u00fc g\u00f6r\u00fc\u015fe sahip olanlar i\u00e7in sat\u0131m opsiyonu almak, riskin tan\u0131ml\u0131 oldu\u011fu \u015fekilde 4.000 dolarl\u0131k psikolojik seviyenin alt\u0131na olas\u0131 bir k\u0131r\u0131lmay\u0131 hedefleme imk\u00e2n\u0131 sunuyor. Buna kar\u015f\u0131l\u0131k, H\u00fcrm\u00fcz Bo\u011faz\u0131\u2019nda gerilimin beklenmedik bi\u00e7imde t\u0131rmanmas\u0131 halinde olas\u0131 bir fiyat s\u0131\u00e7ramas\u0131na oynanmas\u0131 i\u00e7in al\u0131m opsiyonlar\u0131 kullan\u0131labilir. Bu s\u00fcre\u00e7te b\u00fcy\u00fck ve korunmas\u0131z vadeli i\u015flem (futures) pozisyonlar\u0131n\u0131 ta\u015f\u0131may\u0131 \u00f6nermiyoruz.<\/p>\n
K\u0131sa vadeli g\u00f6r\u00fcn\u00fcm belirsiz olsa da alt\u0131n i\u00e7in altta yatan deste\u011fin g\u00fc\u00e7l\u00fc kald\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 belirtmek gerekir. D\u00fcnya Alt\u0131n Konseyi\u2019nin 2026 ilk \u00e7eyrek verileri, \u00f6zellikle geli\u015fen piyasa merkez bankalar\u0131n\u0131n g\u00fc\u00e7l\u00fc al\u0131mlar\u0131n\u0131 s\u00fcrd\u00fcrd\u00fc\u011f\u00fcn\u00fc teyit etti. Bu istikrarl\u0131 talep, fiyat i\u00e7in sa\u011flam bir uzun vadeli taban olu\u015fturabilir ve sert bir \u00e7\u00f6k\u00fc\u015f\u00fc s\u0131n\u0131rlayabilir.<\/p>\n\n\n\n