Axios\u2019un bir yetkiliye dayand\u0131rd\u0131\u011f\u0131 haberine g\u00f6re ABD ve \u0130ran, H\u00fcrm\u00fcz Bo\u011faz\u0131 ve \u00e7evresinde \u00fc\u00e7 g\u00fcn\u00fc a\u015fk\u0131n s\u00fcredir devam eden misilleme sald\u0131r\u0131lar\u0131n\u0131 durdurma ve Sal\u0131 g\u00fcn\u00fc Katar\u2019da teknik g\u00f6r\u00fc\u015fmelere yeniden ba\u015flama konusunda anla\u015ft\u0131. Daha \u00f6nce ABD\u2019nin \u0130ran\u2019la sava\u015f\u0131n\u0131 sona erdirmeye y\u00f6nelik \u00e7abalar\u0131n, Washington\u2019un Tahran\u2019\u0131n Bo\u011faz\u2019daki gemicili\u011fe y\u00f6nelik son sald\u0131r\u0131lar\u0131n\u0131n ard\u0131ndan \u0130ran\u2019\u0131n askeri hedeflerini vurmas\u0131yla birlikte t\u0131kand\u0131\u011f\u0131 bildirilmi\u015fti.<\/p>\n\n
\u0130slam Devrim Muhaf\u0131zlar\u0131 Ordusu, \u0130ran tesislerine y\u00f6nelik son ABD sald\u0131r\u0131lar\u0131na misilleme olarak Kuveyt ve Bahreyn\u2019de sekiz ABD askeri noktas\u0131n\u0131 imha etti\u011fini a\u00e7\u0131klad\u0131. Washington ise Cumartesi gecesi ge\u00e7 saatlerde \u0130ran\u2019dan gelen \u0130HA ve f\u00fcze dalgas\u0131n\u0131n hedeflenen noktalar\u0131 vuramad\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 s\u00f6yledi. \u0130ran D\u0131\u015fi\u015fleri Bakan\u0131 Abbas Arak\u00e7i, ABD Ba\u015fkan\u0131 Donald Trump\u2019\u0131n \u0130ran\u2019\u0131 bir mutabakat zapt\u0131n\u0131 ihlal etmekle su\u00e7lay\u0131p ilave askeri ad\u0131m tehdidinde bulunmas\u0131n\u0131n ard\u0131ndan, H\u00fcrm\u00fcz Bo\u011faz\u0131\u2019n\u0131n \u00f6n\u00fcm\u00fczdeki 30 g\u00fcn boyunca tamamen \u0130ran kontrol\u00fcnde kalaca\u011f\u0131n\u0131 belirtti. Piyasalar Pazartesi g\u00fcn\u00fc \u201criskten ka\u00e7\u0131\u015f\u201d modunda a\u00e7\u0131l\u0131rken ABD Dolar Endeksi (DXY) ve WTI ham petrol y\u00fckseldi.<\/p>\n\n
Bu Sal\u0131 Katar\u2019daki g\u00f6r\u00fc\u015fmeler takvime ba\u011flanm\u0131\u015f olsa da tablo son derece k\u0131r\u0131lgan. Bunu, oynakl\u0131k sat\u0131n almak i\u00e7in net bir sinyal olarak g\u00f6r\u00fcyoruz; zira olumsuz bir ba\u015fl\u0131k \u00f6nemli fiyat dalgalanmalar\u0131na yol a\u00e7abilir. Bu nedenle VIX al\u0131m (call) opsiyonlar\u0131nda uzun pozisyonlar\u0131m\u0131z\u0131 art\u0131r\u0131yoruz. 14 civar\u0131nda seyreden endeksin, 2020 ba\u015f\u0131ndaki benzer jeopolitik gerilimlerde oldu\u011fu gibi, kolayl\u0131kla 20\u2019nin \u00fczerine s\u0131\u00e7rayabilece\u011fini \u00f6ng\u00f6r\u00fcyoruz.<\/p>\n\n
G\u00fcnl\u00fck k\u00fcresel petrol arz\u0131n\u0131n neredeyse be\u015fte birinin ge\u00e7ti\u011fi H\u00fcrm\u00fcz Bo\u011faz\u0131\u2019na y\u00f6nelik do\u011frudan tehdit, ham petrol fiyatlar\u0131n\u0131 g\u00fcndemin merkezine ta\u015f\u0131yor. M\u00fczakerelerin bozulmas\u0131 halinde olas\u0131 bir arz \u015fokundan yararlanmak i\u00e7in k\u0131sa vadeli WTI ve Brent al\u0131m opsiyonlar\u0131 sat\u0131n al\u0131yoruz. Tarihsel olarak bu b\u00f6lgedeki olaylar, 2019\u2019da Suudi tesislerine y\u00f6nelik sald\u0131r\u0131lar\u0131n ard\u0131ndan tek g\u00fcnde g\u00f6r\u00fclen %14\u2019l\u00fck s\u0131\u00e7ramada oldu\u011fu gibi, anl\u0131k fiyat art\u0131\u015flar\u0131na neden oldu.<\/p>\n\n
Bu belirsizlik, g\u00fcvenli limana y\u00f6nelimi art\u0131rarak ABD dolar\u0131n\u0131 g\u00fc\u00e7lendiriyor. Sermaye ABD dolar\u0131 cinsinden varl\u0131klara akarken DXY\u2019nin son zirvelerini test etmesine y\u00f6nelik pozisyon al\u0131yoruz. Bu hareket, dolar\u0131n ba\u015fl\u0131ca g\u00fcvenli liman para birimi olarak \u00f6ne \u00e7\u0131kt\u0131\u011f\u0131 riskten ka\u00e7\u0131\u015f d\u00f6nemleriyle uyumlu.<\/p>\n\n
Daha geni\u015f hisse senedi piyasalar\u0131, artan enerji maliyetleri ve jeopolitik risk kar\u015f\u0131s\u0131nda k\u0131r\u0131lgan. Uzun portf\u00f6ylerimizi S&P 500\u2019de al\u0131m (put) opsiyonlar\u0131 sat\u0131n alarak hedge ediyor, savunma sekt\u00f6r\u00fc ETF\u2019lerinde ise se\u00e7ici \u015fekilde al\u0131m opsiyonlar\u0131na bak\u0131yoruz. Yak\u0131t fiyatlar\u0131na duyarl\u0131 havayolu ve sanayi hisselerinin bu ortamda g\u00f6rece zay\u0131f performans g\u00f6stermesi olas\u0131.<\/p>\n\n
\u00d6n\u00fcm\u00fczdeki birka\u00e7 haftada stratejimizi \u0130ran\u2019\u0131n i\u015faret etti\u011fi 30 g\u00fcnl\u00fck pencere belirleyecek. Y\u00fcksek ima edilen oynakl\u0131\u011f\u0131n opsiyonlar\u0131 do\u011frudan almay\u0131 pahal\u0131 hale getirmesi nedeniyle riski tan\u0131mlamak i\u00e7in opsiyon spread\u2019lerini kullan\u0131yoruz. Bu yakla\u015f\u0131m, kal\u0131c\u0131 bir diplomatik \u00e7\u00f6z\u00fcm bulunmas\u0131 halinde olas\u0131 kay\u0131plar\u0131m\u0131z\u0131 s\u0131n\u0131rlarken enerjide yukar\u0131 y\u00f6nl\u00fc potansiyeli ta\u015f\u0131mam\u0131za olanak tan\u0131yor.<\/p>\n\n\n\n