{"id":50185,"date":"2026-06-27T04:52:27","date_gmt":"2026-06-27T04:52:27","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/uncategorized\/hsbc-ticaret-acigi-ve-enflasyonun-dong-ve-faizler-uzerindeki-baskisina-ragmen-vietnam-buyumesinin-direncli-olduguna-isaret-ediyor\/"},"modified":"2026-06-27T04:52:27","modified_gmt":"2026-06-27T04:52:27","slug":"hsbc-ticaret-acigi-ve-enflasyonun-dong-ve-faizler-uzerindeki-baskisina-ragmen-vietnam-buyumesinin-direncli-olduguna-isaret-ediyor","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/live-updates\/hsbc-ticaret-acigi-ve-enflasyonun-dong-ve-faizler-uzerindeki-baskisina-ragmen-vietnam-buyumesinin-direncli-olduguna-isaret-ediyor\/","title":{"rendered":"HSBC, ticaret a\u00e7\u0131\u011f\u0131 ve enflasyonun dong ve faizler \u00fczerindeki bask\u0131s\u0131na ra\u011fmen Vietnam b\u00fcy\u00fcmesinin diren\u00e7li oldu\u011funa i\u015faret ediyor"},"content":{"rendered":"

HSBC, Vietnam ekonomisini h\u0131zl\u0131 b\u00fcy\u00fcyen bir ekonomi olarak tan\u0131mlarken, artan d\u0131\u015f denge ve fiyat bask\u0131lar\u0131na i\u015faret ediyor. B\u00fcy\u00fcme ge\u00e7en y\u0131lki %8 seviyesinden gerilese de 2026 1\u00c7\u2019de y\u0131ll\u0131k bazda %7,8 oldu. Y\u0131l ba\u015f\u0131ndan bu yana ortalama bazda ihracat y\u0131ll\u0131k yakla\u015f\u0131k %20 artarken, art\u0131\u015f\u0131n itici g\u00fcc\u00fc elektronik oldu. Ancak ayn\u0131 bazda ithalat y\u0131ll\u0131k %30 y\u00fckseldi; bu durum imalat sekt\u00f6r\u00fcn\u00fcn ithalata ba\u011f\u0131ml\u0131 yap\u0131s\u0131n\u0131 yans\u0131t\u0131yor ve d\u0131\u015f ticaret dengesini zay\u0131flat\u0131yor.<\/p>\n

Aral\u0131k 2025\u2019ten bu yana \u00fclke her ay d\u0131\u015f ticaret a\u00e7\u0131\u011f\u0131 verdi; a\u00e7\u0131k May\u0131s\u2019ta 5,2 milyar ABD dolar\u0131 ile rekor seviyeye \u00e7\u0131karak cari hesap tamponunu daraltt\u0131. Enflasyon May\u0131s\u2019ta %5,6\u2019ya y\u00fckselerek Vietnam Devlet Bankas\u0131\u2019n\u0131n (SBV) %4,5 tavan\u0131n\u0131 \u00fcst \u00fcste \u00fc\u00e7\u00fcnc\u00fc ay a\u015ft\u0131; daha y\u00fcksek benzin fiyatlar\u0131 ve artan g\u0131da maliyetleri ba\u015fl\u0131ca etkenler olarak g\u00f6sterildi. HSBC, d\u0131\u015f fazla tahminini a\u015fa\u011f\u0131 \u00e7ekerken 2026 enflasyon \u00f6ng\u00f6r\u00fcs\u00fcn\u00fc y\u00fckseltti.<\/p>\n

Para Politikas\u0131 G\u00f6r\u00fcn\u00fcm\u00fc ve Kur Etkileri<\/h3>\n

Enflasyonun May\u0131s\u2019ta %5,6 ile %4,5 tavan\u0131n belirgin \u00fczerinde, \u00fcst \u00fcste \u00fc\u00e7\u00fcnc\u00fc ay ger\u00e7ekle\u015fmesiyle, SBV\u2019nin ad\u0131m atmak zorunda kalmas\u0131n\u0131 bekliyoruz. Ba\u015fl\u0131ca itici unsurlar yaln\u0131zca petrol de\u011fil; artan g\u0131da fiyatlar\u0131 da fiyat bask\u0131lar\u0131n\u0131n daha genele yay\u0131ld\u0131\u011f\u0131na i\u015faret ediyor. Bu da para politikas\u0131 tepkisini, muhtemelen \u00f6n\u00fcm\u00fczdeki haftalarda bir faiz art\u0131\u015f\u0131n\u0131, neredeyse ka\u00e7\u0131n\u0131lmaz k\u0131l\u0131yor.<\/p>\n

Kal\u0131c\u0131 enflasyon ile May\u0131s\u2019ta 5,2 milyar ABD dolar\u0131 ile rekor k\u0131ran geni\u015fleyen d\u0131\u015f ticaret a\u00e7\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131n bile\u015fimi, Vietnam Dongu \u00fczerinde anlaml\u0131 bask\u0131 olu\u015fturuyor. Teslimats\u0131z vadeli i\u015flemler (NDF) arac\u0131l\u0131\u011f\u0131yla USD\/VND kurunda y\u00fckseli\u015f y\u00f6n\u00fcnde pozisyon almak i\u00e7in net bir f\u0131rsat g\u00f6r\u00fcyoruz. Tarihsel olarak, zay\u0131flayan d\u0131\u015f ticaret dengesiyle birlikte artan enflasyon, y\u00fcksek b\u00fcy\u00fcme d\u00f6nemlerinde dahi \u00e7o\u011fu zaman kurda de\u011fer kayb\u0131n\u0131n \u00f6nc\u00fcs\u00fc olmu\u015ftur.<\/p>\n

Faizler, T\u00fcrevler ve Hisse Senetlerine Etkiler<\/h3>\n

SBV\u2019nin politika s\u0131k\u0131la\u015ft\u0131rmas\u0131na gitmesi olas\u0131l\u0131\u011f\u0131 dikkate al\u0131nd\u0131\u011f\u0131nda, k\u0131sa vadeli faizlerde art\u0131\u015f bekliyoruz. Genel \u0130statistik Ofisi\u2019nin son verilerine g\u00f6re, 2026 May\u0131s\u2019ta imalat PMI 51,2 ile geni\u015fleme b\u00f6lgesinde kal\u0131rken, girdi maliyeti enflasyonu h\u0131zland\u0131; bu durum faiz art\u0131\u015f\u0131 tezini g\u00fc\u00e7lendiriyor. T\u00fcrev piyasa yat\u0131r\u0131mc\u0131lar\u0131, beklenen politika de\u011fi\u015fiminden faydalanmak i\u00e7in faiz swaplar\u0131 \u00fczerinden pozisyonlanmay\u0131 de\u011ferlendirebilir.<\/p>\n

%7,8\u2019lik g\u00fc\u00e7l\u00fc GSYH b\u00fcy\u00fcmesi normalde hisse senetleri i\u00e7in olumlu olsa da, artan bor\u00e7lanma maliyetleri VN-Index a\u00e7\u0131s\u0131ndan \u00f6nemli bir ters r\u00fczg\u00e2r yarat\u0131yor. K\u00fcresel risk i\u015ftah\u0131 da daha k\u0131r\u0131lgan hale geldi; VIX endeksi, kal\u0131c\u0131 k\u00fcresel enflasyon endi\u015feleriyle son iki haftada %5 y\u00fckseldi. Bu nedenle, mevcut uzun hisse pozisyonlar\u0131n\u0131 opsiyonlarla hedge etmeyi veya beklenen piyasa oynakl\u0131\u011f\u0131 art\u0131\u015f\u0131 \u00fczerine i\u015flem yapmay\u0131 tercih ederiz.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Hemen i\u015flem yapmaya ba\u015flay\u0131n \u2014 ger\u00e7ek VT Markets hesab\u0131n\u0131z\u0131 olu\u015fturmak i\u00e7in buraya<\/a> t\u0131klay\u0131n.<\/b>\n\n<\/p>","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

Alarm zilleri: Vietnam\u2019da b\u00fcy\u00fcme g\u00fc\u00e7l\u00fc kalsa da d\u0131\u015f a\u00e7\u0131k rekor k\u0131rd\u0131, enflasyon %5,6\u2019ya \u00e7\u0131kt\u0131. HSBC faiz art\u0131\u015f\u0131 ve dong bask\u0131s\u0131 bekliyor; swap\/NDF f\u0131rsat\u0131, VN-Index\u2019te hedge ihtiyac\u0131.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":87,"featured_media":49991,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[71],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-50185","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-live-updates"],"acf":{"acf_article_selection_author":null},"aioseo_notices":[],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/50185","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/87"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=50185"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/50185\/revisions"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/49991"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=50185"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=50185"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=50185"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}