{"id":50150,"date":"2026-06-26T20:52:37","date_gmt":"2026-06-26T20:52:37","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/uncategorized\/cinin-mali-harcamalari-butce-planinin-gerisinde-yilin-ikinci-yarisinda-tesvik-ve-piyasa-rallisi-beklentisi-artiyor\/"},"modified":"2026-06-26T20:52:37","modified_gmt":"2026-06-26T20:52:37","slug":"cinin-mali-harcamalari-butce-planinin-gerisinde-yilin-ikinci-yarisinda-tesvik-ve-piyasa-rallisi-beklentisi-artiyor","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/live-updates\/cinin-mali-harcamalari-butce-planinin-gerisinde-yilin-ikinci-yarisinda-tesvik-ve-piyasa-rallisi-beklentisi-artiyor\/","title":{"rendered":"\u00c7in\u2019in Mali Harcamalar\u0131 B\u00fct\u00e7e Plan\u0131n\u0131n Gerisinde; Y\u0131l\u0131n \u0130kinci Yar\u0131s\u0131nda Te\u015fvik ve Piyasa Rallisi Beklentisi Art\u0131yor"},"content":{"rendered":"

\u00c7in\u2019in mali harcamalar\u0131, ilk \u00e7eyrekte beklentileri a\u015fan verilere ra\u011fmen 2026\u2019da plan\u0131n gerisinde kald\u0131; Nisan ve May\u0131s\u2019ta ivme daha da zay\u0131flad\u0131. Genel kamu b\u00fct\u00e7esi ile h\u00fck\u00fcmet fonlar\u0131 b\u00fct\u00e7esini kapsayan geni\u015f tan\u0131ml\u0131 b\u00fct\u00e7e a\u00e7\u0131\u011f\u0131, bu iki ayda y\u0131ll\u0131k bazda 393 milyar CNY daha d\u00fc\u015f\u00fck ger\u00e7ekle\u015fti; oysa 1\u00c7\u2019de 258 milyar CNY daha y\u00fcksekti. Bu sert d\u00f6n\u00fc\u015f, mali harcamalar\u0131n geri \u00e7ekilmesiyle birlikte ekonomik faaliyetteki yava\u015flamayla ayn\u0131 d\u00f6neme denk geldi.<\/p>\n

2026\u2019n\u0131n ilk be\u015f ay\u0131nda genel kamu b\u00fct\u00e7esi harcamalar\u0131 y\u0131ll\u0131k %0,8 artt\u0131; b\u00fct\u00e7elenen art\u0131\u015f %4,4\u2019t\u00fc. Gelirler ise planlanan %2,2\u2019lik h\u0131z\u0131n \u00fczerinde, y\u0131ll\u0131k %4 y\u00fckseldi. H\u00fck\u00fcmet fonlar\u0131 harcamalar\u0131 y\u0131ll\u0131k %4,3 gerilerken, arsa sat\u0131\u015flar\u0131n\u0131n daha da daralmas\u0131yla gelirlerde yakla\u015f\u0131k %20\u2019lik d\u00fc\u015f\u00fc\u015f bask\u0131 olu\u015fturdu. Mart\u2019ta onaylanan b\u00fct\u00e7e h\u00e2l\u00e2 a\u00e7\u0131\u011f\u0131n geni\u015flemesine imk\u00e2n tan\u0131yor ve projeksiyonlar 2\u00c7 GSYH b\u00fcy\u00fcmesinin y\u0131ll\u0131k bazda %4,5\u2019in alt\u0131na inece\u011fine i\u015faret ediyor; mevcut e\u011filim s\u00fcrerse Haziran\u2013Aral\u0131k d\u00f6neminde geni\u015f tan\u0131ml\u0131 a\u00e7\u0131k, 2025\u2019in ayn\u0131 d\u00f6nemine k\u0131yasla 1,7 trilyon CNY daha y\u00fcksek olabilir.<\/p>\n

Maliye Politikas\u0131 ve Ekonomik B\u00fcy\u00fcme G\u00f6r\u00fcn\u00fcm\u00fc<\/h3>\n

\u00c7in\u2019de b\u00fcy\u00fcme ivmesinin Nisan ve May\u0131s\u2019ta yava\u015flad\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 g\u00f6r\u00fcyoruz; bunun bir nedeni, kamu harcamalar\u0131n\u0131n planlanan\u0131n belirgin \u015fekilde alt\u0131nda kalmas\u0131. G\u00fc\u00e7l\u00fc bir ilk \u00e7eyre\u011fin ard\u0131ndan gelen bu yava\u015flama, h\u00fck\u00fcmetin devreye girece\u011fini \u00f6ng\u00f6ren yat\u0131r\u0131mc\u0131lar i\u00e7in bir f\u0131rsat penceresi yarat\u0131yor. Kritik nokta, onaylanan b\u00fct\u00e7enin ek harcama i\u00e7in geni\u015f bir alan sunmas\u0131.<\/p>\n

H\u00fck\u00fcmetin, y\u0131l\u0131n ikinci yar\u0131s\u0131nda ekonomiyi desteklemek \u00fczere b\u00fct\u00e7e a\u00e7\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 anlaml\u0131 \u00f6l\u00e7\u00fcde art\u0131rabilecek bir kapasitesi bulunuyor. 2\u00c7 GSYH b\u00fcy\u00fcmesinin %4,5 hedefinin alt\u0131na gerilemesi olas\u0131 g\u00f6r\u00fcnd\u00fc\u011f\u00fcnden, yetkililerin i\u00e7 talebi canland\u0131rmak i\u00e7in b\u00fct\u00e7e harcamalar\u0131n\u0131 h\u0131zland\u0131rmas\u0131n\u0131 bekliyoruz. Bu durum, \u00f6n\u00fcm\u00fczdeki haftalarda te\u015fvik ad\u0131mlar\u0131n\u0131n a\u00e7\u0131klan\u0131p uygulanmas\u0131yla piyasada hareketi tetikleyebilecek net bir kataliz\u00f6r olu\u015fturuyor.<\/p>\n

Piyasa Etkileri ve Yat\u0131r\u0131m Stratejileri<\/h3>\n

Bu \u00e7er\u00e7evede, altyap\u0131 ve in\u015faatla do\u011frudan ba\u011flant\u0131l\u0131 sanayi emtialar\u0131nda bir ralli beklentisiyle pozisyon al\u0131yoruz. \u00c7in\u2019in resmi imalat PMI verisinin May\u0131s\u2019ta 49,5\u2019e geriledi\u011fini g\u00f6steren son veriler, Pekin \u00fczerindeki harekete ge\u00e7me bask\u0131s\u0131n\u0131 daha da art\u0131r\u0131yor; bu, 2016 gibi ge\u00e7mi\u015f te\u015fvik d\u00f6ng\u00fclerinde emtia fiyatlar\u0131nda s\u0131\u00e7ramalara yol a\u00e7t\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 g\u00f6rd\u00fc\u011f\u00fcm\u00fcz bir kal\u0131p. Bu nedenle, \u00fc\u00e7\u00fcnc\u00fc \u00e7eyrek i\u00e7in bak\u0131r ve demir cevheri vadeli i\u015flemlerinde al\u0131m (call) opsiyonu almak temkinli bir strateji olarak \u00f6ne \u00e7\u0131k\u0131yor.<\/p>\n

Ayr\u0131ca, g\u00f6rece zay\u0131f performans sergileyen \u00c7in hisselerinde bir toparlanma bekliyoruz. \u015eanghay Bile\u015fik Endeksi son iki ayda b\u00fcy\u00fck \u00f6l\u00e7\u00fcde yatay seyretti; bu g\u00f6r\u00fcn\u00fcm, te\u015fvikin h\u0131zla tersine \u00e7evirebilece\u011fi zay\u0131f duyarl\u0131l\u0131\u011fa i\u015faret ediyor. Olas\u0131 piyasa genelindeki ralliye maruz kalmak i\u00e7in geni\u015f kapsaml\u0131, \u00c7in odakl\u0131 ETF\u2019lerde al\u0131m (call) opsiyonlar\u0131n\u0131 de\u011ferlendiriyoruz.<\/p>\n

Son olarak, bu mali geni\u015flemenin \u00c7in Yuan\u0131\u2019na destek sa\u011flamas\u0131 bekleniyor. Para birimi dolar kar\u015f\u0131s\u0131nda zay\u0131flarken USD\/CNH kuru son d\u00f6nemde 7,28 civar\u0131nda seyrediyor. Artan kamu harcamalar\u0131 ve daha g\u00fc\u00e7l\u00fc ekonomik g\u00f6r\u00fcn\u00fcm\u00fcn bu de\u011fer kayb\u0131n\u0131 durdurabilece\u011fini d\u00fc\u015f\u00fcn\u00fcyoruz; bu da USD\/CNH paritesinde sat\u0131m (put) opsiyonlar\u0131n\u0131 cazip bir riskten korunma (hedge) veya spek\u00fclatif pozisyon haline getiriyor.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Hemen i\u015flem yapmaya ba\u015flay\u0131n \u2014 ger\u00e7ek VT Markets hesab\u0131n\u0131z\u0131 olu\u015fturmak i\u00e7in buraya<\/a> t\u0131klay\u0131n.<\/b>\n\n<\/p>","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

S\u00fcrpriz sinyal: \u00c7in\u2019de mali harcamalar 2026\u2019da plan\u0131n gerisinde, Nisan-May\u0131s\u2019ta a\u00e7\u0131k 393 milyar CNY darald\u0131. Ancak 2Y\u2019de geni\u015fleme alan\u0131 var; te\u015fvik emtia, hisse ve yuan\u0131 hareketlendirebilir.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":87,"featured_media":50066,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[71],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-50150","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-live-updates"],"acf":{"acf_article_selection_author":null},"aioseo_notices":[],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/50150","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/87"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=50150"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/50150\/revisions"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/50066"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=50150"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=50150"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=50150"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}