Alt\u0131n, Cuma g\u00fcn\u00fc ABD Dolar\u0131\u2019n\u0131n zay\u0131flamas\u0131yla 4.000 dolar\u0131n \u00fczerinde tutundu. Son ABD PCE enflasyon verisinin b\u00fcy\u00fck \u00f6l\u00e7\u00fcde beklentilerle uyumlu gelmesi, Fed\u2019in yak\u0131n vadede faiz art\u0131raca\u011f\u0131na dair beklentileri s\u0131n\u0131rlad\u0131. XAU\/USD, hafta ba\u015f\u0131nda 3.959 dolar ile yedi ay\u0131n en d\u00fc\u015f\u00fck seviyesini g\u00f6rd\u00fckten sonra 4.065 dolar civar\u0131nda i\u015flem g\u00f6rd\u00fc. May\u0131s ay\u0131 man\u015fet PCE ayl\u0131k bazda %0,4 artt\u0131; Nisan\u2019a g\u00f6re de\u011fi\u015fmedi ve %0,5\u2019lik beklentinin alt\u0131nda kald\u0131. \u00c7ekirdek PCE ise beklentilere paralel \u015fekilde %0,3\u2019te sabit kald\u0131. Piyasalar Eyl\u00fcl ay\u0131 faiz art\u0131\u015f\u0131 fiyatlamas\u0131n\u0131 d\u00fc\u015f\u00fcrd\u00fc; CME FedWatch Tool\u2019a g\u00f6re z\u0131mni olas\u0131l\u0131k bir hafta \u00f6nceki %70\u2019ten %61\u2019e geriledi.<\/p>\n
Y\u0131ll\u0131k enflasyon Fed\u2019in %2 hedefinin \u00fczerinde kalmaya devam ediyor; bu da petrol fiyatlar\u0131ndaki d\u00fc\u015f\u00fc\u015f\u00fcn fiyat bask\u0131lar\u0131n\u0131 hafifletmesi beklense bile bor\u00e7lanma maliyetlerinin y\u00fcksek seyredece\u011fine i\u015faret ediyor. Dolar ikinci ay \u00fcst \u00fcste ayl\u0131k kazanca haz\u0131rlan\u0131yordu; DXY, 101,80 civar\u0131ndaki bir y\u0131l\u0131 a\u015fk\u0131n zirvenin ard\u0131ndan 101,12 yak\u0131n\u0131ndayd\u0131. Jeopolitik belirsizlik s\u00fcrd\u00fc; \u0130ran, H\u00fcrm\u00fcz Bo\u011faz\u0131 ge\u00e7i\u015flerinin \u0130ranl\u0131 otoritelerle koordine edilmesi gerekti\u011fini yineledi ve K\u00f6rfez\u2019deki ABD askeri varl\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 ele\u015ftirdi. Teknik tarafta XAU\/USD, 20 periyotluk Bollinger SMA olan 4.248 dolar\u0131n alt\u0131nda kald\u0131; RSI 35 ve ADX 41 seviyesindeydi. Diren\u00e7 4.248 ve 4.543 dolar; destek ise 4.000 ard\u0131ndan 3.953 dolar olarak izleniyor.<\/p>\n
Alt\u0131n\u0131n 4.000 dolar \u00fczerindeki mevcut istikrar\u0131n\u0131, daha geni\u015f bir d\u00fc\u015f\u00fc\u015f trendi i\u00e7inde ge\u00e7ici bir duraklama olarak g\u00f6r\u00fcyoruz. Ayl\u0131k PCE enflasyon raporu bir miktar rahatlama sa\u011flasa da, y\u0131ll\u0131k \u00e7ekirdek PCE %4,1 ile inat\u00e7\u0131 bi\u00e7imde y\u00fcksek kal\u0131yor ve Fed\u2019in hedefinin belirgin \u015fekilde \u00fczerinde. Bu durum, olas\u0131 y\u00fckseli\u015flerin muhtemelen k\u0131sa \u00f6m\u00fcrl\u00fc olaca\u011f\u0131 ve sat\u0131\u015f f\u0131rsat\u0131 sunaca\u011f\u0131 g\u00f6r\u00fc\u015f\u00fcm\u00fcz\u00fc destekliyor.<\/p>\n
Teknik g\u00f6stergelerin i\u015faret etti\u011fi g\u00fc\u00e7l\u00fc d\u00fc\u015f\u00fc\u015f trendi dikkate al\u0131nd\u0131\u011f\u0131nda, \u00f6n\u00fcm\u00fczdeki haftalarda olu\u015fabilecek g\u00fc\u00e7lenmeleri \u201cfade\u201d etmeyi (y\u00fckseli\u015fleri satmay\u0131) hedefliyoruz. 4.250 dolar civar\u0131ndaki diren\u00e7 seviyesine yak\u0131n kullan\u0131m fiyatlar\u0131yla call opsiyonu satmay\u0131 veya ay\u0131 call spreadleri kurmay\u0131 de\u011ferlendirece\u011fiz. Tarihsel olarak 2022\u2019deki gibi Fed s\u0131k\u0131la\u015fma d\u00f6ng\u00fclerinde, belirgin bir politika d\u00f6n\u00fc\u015f\u00fc g\u00f6r\u00fclene kadar alt\u0131n rallileri kal\u0131c\u0131 olamad\u0131; \u015fu a\u015famada b\u00f6yle bir d\u00f6n\u00fc\u015f sinyali g\u00f6rm\u00fcyoruz.<\/p>\n
4.000 dolar seviyesini a\u015fa\u011f\u0131 y\u00f6n\u00fcn devam\u0131 i\u00e7in kritik bir tetikleyici olarak izleyece\u011fiz. Bu deste\u011fin net bi\u00e7imde k\u0131r\u0131lmas\u0131, 3.950 dolar civar\u0131ndaki son dipleri hedefleyerek put opsiyonu al\u0131m\u0131na y\u00f6neltir. D\u00fc\u015f\u00fc\u015f e\u011filimi, alt\u0131n destekli ETF\u2019lerde yaln\u0131zca bu ay i\u00e7inde 5 milyar dolar\u0131n \u00fczerinde net \u00e7\u0131k\u0131\u015f ya\u015fand\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 g\u00f6steren son verilerle de teyit ediliyor; bu, kurumsal sat\u0131\u015f bask\u0131s\u0131n\u0131n s\u00fcrd\u00fc\u011f\u00fcne i\u015faret ediyor.<\/p>\n
DXY endeksinin 101,00 \u00fczerinde sa\u011flam kalmas\u0131yla g\u00fc\u00e7l\u00fc ABD Dolar\u0131, alt\u0131n i\u00e7in \u00f6nemli bir kar\u015f\u0131 r\u00fczg\u00e2r olmaya devam ediyor. Son Tar\u0131m D\u0131\u015f\u0131 \u0130stihdam raporunda 250 bin ki\u015filik istihdam art\u0131\u015f\u0131yla g\u00f6r\u00fclen ABD ekonomisinin g\u00f6rece g\u00fcc\u00fc, sermaye giri\u015flerini destekleyerek dolar\u0131 g\u00fc\u00e7l\u00fc tutuyor. S\u00fcregelen ABD-\u0130ran gerilimi de dolar odakl\u0131 g\u00fcvenli liman ak\u0131mlar\u0131n\u0131 art\u0131rarak, alt\u0131n\u0131n geleneksel g\u00fcvenli liman cazibesini bask\u0131l\u0131yor.<\/p>\n\n\n\n